Burlington, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

009
FXUS63 KDVN 142306
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
606 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern returns Sunday and ramps up through the middle of
  next week with daily chances of storms, and the potential for
  severe weather especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

In the very near term (late afternoon/evening) it appears that the
favored convective spawning grounds lies mainly to our north/west
through the heart of Iowa (and far SE Minnesota) within an axis of
deeper low level moisture (surface dew points upper 60s/lower 70s)
and instability (SB/MLCAPE 1500-2500 j/kg), particularly north of I-80
in close proximity to a frontal zone. Corfidi vectors are weak to
the south, and orientation of the moisture and instability axis also
point toward a south to even possibly southwestward translation with
the CAPE eating activity, and thus this scattered activity is
anticipated to largely stay west of the service area this evening.
However, will keep some small PoPs in across portions of eastern Iowa
to account for low potential for development further east toward the
Mississippi River to our north and drifting southward along the moisture
and instability gradients.

Otherwise, a better chance (30-60%) of showers and storms appears to
be on tap late tonight into Sunday AM, particularly for areas north/
west of the Quad Cities, as a shortwave currently over the Dakotas dives
southeastward around the periphery of a Southwest heat dome. Timing
during diurnal minimum and throughout the morning would lend to a rather
low threat for severe weather, but some gusty winds and possibly small
hail can`t be ruled out. Additional widely scattered diurnally driven
convection is possible by mid to late Sunday afternoon, particularly near
any residual boundary(ies) left over from morning activity. All in all
we`re not looking at all day type rains to where any outdoor plans with
dad have to be cancelled, but just know they could be delayed for some
dodging rain drops and especially with any lightning - when thunder roars
head indoors! Aside from the rain chances it looks to be a typical June
warm and humid day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Classic summertime MCS pattern is taking shape for a good portion of
next week. This will feature a Bermuda high entrenched off the
Southeast coast and southerly flow on the western periphery leading
to increasing Gulf moisture while semi-zonal to W/SW flow aloft
will shuttle periodic disturbances across the region on the southern
periphery of the polar jet traversing the northern international
border. This will provide support for near daily storm chances via
coinciding diurnal instability, with the potential for a few organized
storm complexes and strong to severe storms. Such specifics of timing,
location, and hazards in this pattern are more difficult to ascertain
beyond 24 hours, as typically in this pattern the early day remnants
will impact these details. With that being said it would seem given
the increase in moisture (PWATs climbing over 1.5 to 2 inches) that
hail would be a lower threat and that wind and localized heavy rain/
flash flooding would be the primary threats. This threat appears to
crescendo around the mid-week timeframe when guidance shows a more
amplified shortwave trough shifting from the Rockies through the Midwest.
Temperatures and humidity will also be building ahead of mid-week with
highs forecast to top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Temperatures will be lower confidence around mid-week when
the storm chances look to peak, as boundaries, storm coverage and cloud
cover will play a pivotal role.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions will largely remain in place through the TAF
period, with brief MVFR conditions possible at CID and DBQ
between 11-16z. A line of showers and storms will work through
part of the area during that timeframe, which can bring the
chance for vis around 5 SM and cigs down to 2kft. Chances for
precipitation will continue beyond then, but confidence is low
on timing and coverage. Otherwise, winds will remain light and
variable through the night, becoming light and largely
southeasterly after 12z Sunday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Gunkel