Burlington, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

382
FXUS63 KDVN 152327
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
627 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant travel impacts expected late this afternoon into
  Monday with very strong winds, falling snow, and blowing snow
  leading to blizzard conditions. This will impact the Monday AM
  commute.

- Much colder on Monday and Tuesday with a warming trend
  beginning midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The severe threat has ended across the area with surface low
lifting to east of Galesburg and a warm front stretching
northeastward toward Kenosha Wisconsin. This places Bureau and
Putnam Counties on the cold side of the warm front with no
severe thunderstorms expected. Small hail is likely with
stronger storms.

The surface low has trended farther to the south than originally
forecast and is expected to deepen further as large scale ascent
increases with the arrival of the 500 MB trough late this
afternoon and into this evening. The cold front is also surging
quickly eastward across the area early this afternoon. The
temperatures have fallen into the 30s behind the front. The
forecast net effect has been to move up the arrival of the cold
front and quicken the falling temperatures across the area into
this evening. This will also slightly increase the snowfall
totals across the area, along with potentially some convective-
type snowfall rates early-mid evening.

Very strong winds will make the snowfall very difficult to
measure, although it is important to remember total snowfall is
one of and probably not the main message with this (winds and
blowing snow are). Snowfall totals of 6 to 10 inches are
possible over the northeast third of the CWA with 5 to 9 north
of a Iowa City to Geneseo line, with 2 to 4 inches south of that
line. A Blizzard Warning will go into effect for much of this
area by early evening. The lowest totals are expected across
far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. A Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for this area.

This system will continue to intensify as the surface low lifts
into the Great Lakes. The pressure gradient will become tighter
across the region as this occurs leading to wind speeds rapidly
increasing to 25 to 35 MPH with gusts between 50 to 60 MPH late
this afternoon through daybreak Monday. While there is some
uncertainty on snow ratios, these speeds are far and away enough
to lead to widespread blowing and drifting snow. When snow is
falling too, this should result in areas of near zero
visibility, especially in open locations. Additionally,
continuing falling temperatures will cause untreated surfaces
to freeze quickly adding to additional travel hazards making it
dangerous to impossible to travel. Temperatures will fall into
the teens areawide by Monday morning, with wind chill values on
Monday morning at 10 to 15 below zero for a few hours through
mid morning. This looks to fall short of a Cold Weather Advisory.

There is uncertainty on how bad visibility will be in blowing
snow Monday after daybreak because the falling snow in the
deformation area will have likely ended. While confidence is
high that there will be at least hazardous travel, the
"dangerous" aspect will be regularly evaluated. If they were not
to be as bad in some areas, we would consider transitioning to
another winter headline. Confidence is highest in the blizzard
conditions across eastern Iowa from I-80 northward with
climatological support for that area.

Monday will be much colder with high temperatures ranging from
15 degrees above zero northwest of Cedar rapids to the mid 20s
in far southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri, northwest Illinois
south of Interstate 80. Winds will very slowly decrease through
the day with gusts up to 35 MPH possible during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Little change in the long term period forecast. Northwest flow
aloft will continue through the end of the period. Another fast
moving storms system will move across the area late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning. This will bring a chance of
snow to the area. Snowfall amounts will be light with this storm
system.

After a cold start to the week, warm up is forecast to begin across
the area on Wednesday with temperatures into the 60s and lower 70s
by the end of the week.

There is another subtle shortwave in the flow toward the end of the
week but there is disagreement on the timing and location of this
wave and its impact on the area. Currently, the forecast is dry with
the better forcing and moisture to our north.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate to below
minimums at all TAF sites through the overnight. When snow
finally ends, blowing sn will lead to IFR/MVFR conditions and
possibly zero visibility right above the ground. So there could
remain an issue with seeing runways into Monday morning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for IAZ040>042-051>053-
     063>065-067-076>078-087>089-098-099.
     High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for IAZ054-066-068.
IL...High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for ILZ015-024>026.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for ILZ001-002-007-009-
     015>018-024>026.
     High Wind Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for ILZ001-002-007-009-
     016>018.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for ILZ034-035.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for ILZ034-035.
MO...High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ009-010.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins