Bettendorf, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS63 KDVN 101954
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
154 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Mostly to partly cloudy tonight, then seasonable and breezy on
   Monday.

- Dry and seasonal conditions expected for most of the work
  week, with our next widespread chances of showers still on
  track for Wednesday. Then warming above normal by late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 155 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Tonight...As the filling upper low complex migrates to the northern
GRT LKS, the main fcst challenge this period will be sky cover and
low temps. Feel wrap around flow west of the decaying cyclone will
usher down some of the cloud cover now acrs MN into the northeastern
plains overnight, but still have some passing breaks at times.
Boundary layer(BL) flow will remain westerly and not tap into quite
the cooler airmass upstream just yet, and will go with the 70th
percentile lows mainly in the lower 40s.

Monday...Pressure gradient between the exiting cyclone and incoming
ridge will tighten enough for a breezy northwest sfc wind day with
gusts at least 25 MPH at times, may be higher north of I-80. High
temps will depend on mixing depth, and if we can get into the base
of a H8 to H7 MB inversion aloft we should have highs in the low to
mid 50s with a few areas pushing the upper 50s. That`s if wet get
full sunshine after the morning clouds mix out and clear off to the
south. Monday night to be a cool one under the influence of sfc
ridge, with widespread low temps in the lower 30s to upper 20s. Will
have to watch for east-northeast flow aloft to try and advect lake
stratus toward the eastern CWA as the night progresses, otherwise a
mainly clear night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Tuesday and Wednesday...Medium range ensembles suggest both sfc high
pressure and ridging aloft to reign acrs the upper MS RVR Valley on
Tue. Some light southeasterly return flow and sunshine should help
temps warm close to Monday values even after a cold start to the day.
Then attention turns to the next inland striving trof off the
Pacific and acrs the mid CONUS for the next main precip chance for
the local area. Still some timing, handling, phasing issues to
resolve between the different models and runs, but Wed into Wed
night still looks like the main window for POPs to cover incoming or
developing showers. QPF amounts vary between the solutions, with the
latest ECMWF blends suggesting light amounts under 0.15 of an inch
for most of the area. The latest GFS and GEFS are a bit wetter with
QPF amounts up to 0.40 to 0.50 of an inch by Thursday morning.

Thursday through Saturday...Longer range progs of mass fields and
upper jet trends show broad upper ridging taking grip of the mid
CONUS again, with moderating temp/airmass profiles moving in from
the west by week`s end. The extent of warm advection and H85 MB
temps for this time of year support high temps well above normal in
the 60s for both Friday and especially Saturday. If we can maintain
mostly sunny skies and have increased mixing with breezy south
winds, we may get into the upper 60s on Saturday, but a little far
out to have confidence in these kind of details at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Wrap around MVFR stratocu with a few breaks, as well as varying
category heights of MVFR making it a bit of a challenge this
afternoon, but will play most sites CIGs from 2000 to 3000.
Tonight a challenge as well, with plenty of upstream MVFR or
even IFR clouds acrs MN into the plains that may get advected
down acrs the area tonight. At what levels they maintain or even
drop to overnight will have to be watched in upstream trends.
The BRL site may have the best chance to remain higher MVFR
levels or even scatter out. West to northwesterly sfc winds will
be brisk and gust up to 25 KTs through early evening. As Monday
morning progresses, expect a cloud clear out with sfc winds
veering to the northwest and becoming gusty again.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12