Bettendorf, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

747
FXUS63 KDVN 021745
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At least isolated thunderstorm development is probable (>50
  percent confidence) this afternoon over eastern Iowa that may
  have a severe threat.

- Wind Advisory for this afternoon for much of the area due to
  occasional gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

- Outside of today, temperatures look to be near or slightly
  below normal for early April.

- A somewhat active weather pattern continues late this week
  with two additional but weaker systems moving through the
  Midwest.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The morning thunderstorm waves have largely exited with
remaining stratiform rain in northwest Illinois, apart from near
the I-74 corridor south of the Quad Cities where waves of
elevated storms are tracking across through 1 PM.

Attention shifts to the question noted in the previous AFD of
whether there will be redevelopment of storms and severe
potential. Overall, there is a widespread and notable imprint
of rain-cooled air over the area. The axis of interest looks to
be the low-level confluence zone in central Iowa spreading
northeast and under an impressive 100+ kt 500 mb jet. This
coincides with clearing and the northward push of warmer surface
air, albeit not the most effective air like to our southeast
just due to less deep layer moisture and no longer steep mid-
level lapse rates. Because of this, any thunderstorms that do
initiate should be isolated (~20 percent) in coverage and be of
a shallower nature. Convection-allowing models support that
type of solution too, with some waffling between hourly runs
but generally low coverage (even to nil in some solutions).

If isolated storms do fire, hodographs favor somewhat
elongated, shallow supercell structures. Small hail possibly to
severe limits would probably be the main threat. If the surface
flow can remain backed from the southeast, such as it is across
central Iowa right now, a few cells (again IF they develop)
could have brief tornado threats. The main area of interest for
isolate development looks to be north of U.S. Highway 34 in
eastern Iowa, possibly spilling into northwest Illinois late in
the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A surface low currently sits in eastern Kansas with a warm
front extending eastward across northern Missouri to near
Quincy, Illinois. This front marks the boundary for dewpoints
into the 50s. 60 degree dew points are currently located south
of Interstate 70. Temperatures across eastern Iowa, northwest
Illinois, and far northeast Missouri are in in the mid 40s
north of Highway 30 to the lower 50s in far southeast Iowa, west
central Illinois, and far northeast Missouri. Dewpoints are
largely in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. Southeast
winds continue across the area with sustained speeds of 15 to
25 MPH and gusts of 30 to 35 mph. South of the warm front, a
QLCS is moving into western Missouri from eastern Kansas with
widespread rain lifting northward across Iowa with embedded
thunderstorms.

A deepening storm system is forecast to lift from eastern Kansas
early this morning into northern Iowa by 18 UTC. This will lift
the warm front across the area, allowing warmer air and
moisture to advect into the area. This will push temperatures
into the upper 60s along the Highway 20 corridor today with
lower to mid 70s south. The warmest temperatures are expected
across far southeast Iowa, far northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois with high temperatures around 70 degrees. This
will allow most unstable CAPE to increase to 1000 to 2000 J/KG.
Periods of showers and storms are expected through the morning
hours. The severe threat in the morning convection will be
limited to large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. If a
lull in the activity occurs and skies clear as the dry slot
moves into the area ahead of the cold front, another line of
storms is possible generally along and east of the Mississippi
River in which could support large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado cannot be ruled out entirely, but it will depend on how
much instability builds across the area. There remains an
Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) Risk for Henry, Bureau, and Putnam
Counties with a Slight (level 2 out of 5) across the remainder
of the area. Widespread rainfall totals today will range from
1.00 to 1.25 inches with isolated amounts over 1.50 inches
possible. The cold front is forecast to move across the area
during the afternoon and evening hours which will switch the
winds around to the west.

Also, within the dry slot ahead of the cold front, winds are
forecast to increase area-wide. Model soundings show that the
morning inversion erodes this afternoon allowing for wind gusts
to increase. Winds at the top of the mixed layer increase to 45
to 50 knots, especially across eastern Iowa, western Illinois,
and far northeast Missouri. This corresponds well to gusts of 45
to 50 mph. The isallobaric wind vector is well aligned with the
wind direction this afternoon increasing confidence in strong
winds across the area. In coordination with surrounding offices
we have expanded the Wind Advisory to all of eastern Iowa and western
Illinois south of I-80. It remains in place across far
northeast Missouri. Winds will be sustained at 20 to 30 MPH
this afternoon with gusts of 40 to 50 mph. At this time, winds
north of Interstate 80 look to gust up to 40 mph, but this will
need to be monitored and the advisory may need to be expanded
to include all of northwest Illinois. The Wind Advisory will
expire at 7 PM.

The gradient will slowly weaken tonight as high pressure builds
into the mid-Missouri River Valley overnight. Winds speeds will
decrease from 15 to 25 mph this evening with gusts to 30 MPH to
5 to 15 mph after midnight. Clouds will quickly clear from west
to east this afternoon. Low temperatures Thursday morning will
range from the mid 30s northwest of Cedar Rapids to the mid 40s
in far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The region is forecast to remain under southwest flow aloft
through the upcoming weekend. Currently, the forecast has a
pair of storm systems passing well to our south Thursday and
Friday and bring low chances of rain into far northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois with cloudy skies area wide.

Models show a storm system passing to our north Saturday into
Saturday night as a second system passes to our south. This
spreads rain northward into the area on Saturday and Saturday
night. As the storm system to the north moves by, cooler air
moves into the area with precipitation continuing into Sunday.
This may bring a rain and snow mix to the area Sunday morning
before precipitation comes to an end. Cooler and drier air will
move into the area late Sunday into Monday with high temperatures
in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Complicated weather pattern with clouds and storms at the TAF
locations for this period.

Latest 15Z SFC analysis has low pressure across western Iowa
with boundary to the west of TAF locations. A warm front was
southeast of area. Latest 1706Z Satellite has clearing area
almost to TAF locations. Latest 1700Z KDVN radar has some
showers and thunderstorms near KBRL to KMLI and east rapidly
moving northeast.

Expect some decrease in clouds to develop at TAF locations
over the next few hours. As front approaches from the West
expect widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms
to develop for a few hours. Have placed Prob30s for a few hours
in TAFs to account for this activity. Otherwise expect a mix of
clouds for the remainder of the TAF period. Southerly winds will
switch to the southwest and west. Strong winds gusting to 30 to
40kts is possible during the early part of TAF period with
some decreasing in winds during the remainder of the period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ040>042-
     051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ015>018-
     024>026-034-035.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Friedlein
SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Holicky
AVIATION...Cousins