West Lafayette, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

576
FXUS63 KIND 030718
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
318 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch through Sunday morning with rounds of moderate to
  heavy rain and total rainfall potentially as high as 6-9 inches

- Some strong to severe storms possible again later Friday into
  Friday night

- Widespread, significant river flooding expected late week into
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Rain will return to central Indiana later today and continue tonight.

This Morning...

The cold front will move through central Indiana early this morning,
but with all the moisture caught up in the storms to the south, the
area should remain dry.

Clouds will thin enough that skies will become partly cloudy for
parts of the area.

This Afternoon into Early Evening...

Upper energy moving through the southwest flow aloft will bring some
lift to the forecast area. Enough moisture will be around for this
moisture to work with to produce some scattered showers, with
increasing coverage late in the period (6-8 PM). Will have chance
category or lower PoPs for much of the period, with some likely
category late.

Cooler air will be in place, with highs in the middle to upper 60s
common today.

Mid-Evening through Tonight...

Forcing will ramp up as a surface wave rides along the old front to
the south. 850mb winds will increase and pump moisture back into the
area as well as provide lift as these winds interact with the
baroclinic zone across the area.

The result will be rain across central Indiana once again. Will go
categorical PoPs most areas at some point during the period.

Precipitable water values will increase some again, especially
south, thanks to the aforementioned stronger winds aloft. The
highest amounts will be across southern portions of the area.

Another inch of rain is possible tonight across the southern
forecast area, which will cause renewed flooding or prolong/worsen
existing flooding in those areas. Farther north, amounts will drop
off. Thus, tonight`s main impact looks to be in the the southern
forecast area.

Some models (such as the NAM and Canadian) have more rain in the
north, so will have to keep an eye on how things develop.

Thunder is possible with mainly elevated convection as the main
surface boundary stays south of the area. Lows will generally be
around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE...

Confidence remains high that multiple rounds of rain, heavy at
times, will increase flooding across the area into the weekend.

The area will remain in southwest flow aloft into Sunday with a
strong ridge off the southeast US coast and an upper trough across
the Intermountain West. The upper trough will send energy from time
to time before moving east on Sunday. This energy will interact with
the old surface front to bring waves of low pressure along it.
Additional forcing will come from an upper level jet.

Moisture content remains high near the old surface front and to the
south.

Friday through Sunday...

Rainfall coverage will diminish some Friday morning, then as a
stronger surface wave develops and moves northeast, rain will return
and move north through the area Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Precipitable water values will return to near climatological max,
giving the system plenty to work with.

The axis of heavy rain will move into the northern forecast area for
a time, so keeping the Flood Watch over the entire area looks good.

As the surface wave begins to exit later Friday night, the surface
boundary will shift south again and take the heavier axis of rain
south with it, bringing more issues to the southern forecast area
again.

With the area back into the warmer air (but not as warm as
Wednesday), some strong to potentially severe storms are possible
later Friday into Friday night given the continued strong wind
fields.

Another stronger surface wave will move into the region by late
Saturday, triggering the final wave of rainfall into the Ohio Valley
for Saturday. The frontal boundary will shift back to the southeast
of the region as the Saturday night progresses. Despite slightly
lower PWAT values...low level profiles remain ideal for
heavy...efficient rainfall to impact the forecast area.

Flooding concerns will be maximized by Friday night and Saturday as
even a small amount of rain is likely to initiate or worsen ongoing
flooding.

Temperatures will rise Friday night and then fall again Saturday
afternoon with the passage of the first wave. Temperatures may
struggle to climb out of the 40s on Sunday with a stiff northerly
wind, making for a miserable end to the weekend.

Rainfall Amounts and Flooding

Total rainfall amounts from Thursday through Sunday will range from
over 3 inches north to over 6 inches south. This, combined with 1 to
2 inches that fell Wednesday will bring totals into the 4 to over 7
inch range. Locally higher amounts are possible in the far south.

These rainfall amounts will produce significant flooding, especially
along rivers, creeks, and streams and within poor drainage areas.

High confidence exists that the heavy rainfall anticipated through
Sunday could be one of the highest impact flooding events for
central Indiana over the last 15 years.

The Flood Watch continues through 12Z Sunday for all of central
Indiana. River flooding will last longer.

Monday through Wednesday...

Another cold front will move through Monday, bringing low chances
for precipitation. This will keep temperatures below normal, with
highs in the 40s again on Tuesday. High pressure will move east of
the area on Wednesday, allowing readings to get closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Impacts:

- Wind gusts over 20kt at times overnight

- Rain returns Thursday evening with some MVFR conditions possible

Discussion:

Main area of showers and thunderstorms will be east of the sites at
valid time. A few light showers or sprinkles might return early in
the period, but they should not have any impact.

VFR conditions should then rule through the daytime hours. Rain will
return during the evening along with perhaps MVFR conditions.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50/Ryan
AVIATION...50