Lawrence, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

969
FXUS63 KIND 131053
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
653 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms today through much of the
  weekend

- Heavy downpours and localized flooding will be the primary threat
  Friday afternoon through Saturday evening

- A near daily risk for scattered showers and storms will continue
  through much of next week

- Muggy conditions are expected through the upcoming week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A slow moving low pressure system is making it`s way into the Ohio
Valley, bringing showers and storms throughout the short term
period. The column has been moistening throughout the night, working
to erode the dry layer at the lower levels. Light rain has been able
to reach the surface at times overnight and this precipitation will
steadily increase through the morning as much deeper moisture takes
over with isentropic lift increase as well. Numerous to widespread
showers and storms expected by midday to the afternoon.

While lightning is expected, especially later in the day, severe
weather is luckily not expected in the short term. Instability
should be limited and lapse rates poor while little boundary
layer shear is expected to keep convection disorganized. Rainfall
amounts and potential flooding could be a concern with PWATS of
1.5" to 2" likely today. Localized heavy downpours in stronger
clusters and flash flooding will be a threat this afternoon into
the overnight.

High temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s while tonight will be warmer than normal, dropping only to
the upper 60s to near 70 thanks to the saturated atmosphere.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Coming off of a generally rainy and overall mild pattern over the
past four weeks...central Indiana`s long term will exhibit more
typically midsummer conditions with near-consistent higher
humidity...and often widely scattered convection that will also
occasionally include either more widespread showers or mainly dry
days. The continent`s prevailing upper pattern will be zonal and
generally retracted to near the Canadian border...although any
organized subtropical ridging should be confined to the southwestern
CONUS. In between, Indiana can expect a weak disturbance to slowly
pass on Saturday...the northwestern portions of broad yet weak
surface high pressure early next week...which will then yield a
stronger gradient through the midweek as a more pronounced short
wave crosses from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes.

Saturday`s numerous to widespread showers will include at least a
few thunderstorms with isolated downpours.  Severe weather is not
expected given the weakly-sheared environment, although a few strong
storms are possible, and slow cell motion is expected to allow
localized areas of 1-2 inches of rainfall.  Ponding of low-lying
areas and localized flooding are possible, especially near/south of
the I-70 corridor.  The Sunday-Monday timeframe should lean toward
more isolated showers and t-storms exhibiting a minor diurnal
enhancement...as weak Canadian ridging attempts to build southward
into the region on light northeasterly winds.

Tuesday-Wednesday`s often south-southwesterly surface flow will
maintain dewpoints around or slightly above 70F...and promote
precipitable water values of generally 1.50-2.00 inches...with
scattered to numerous afternoon showers again bringing the chance of
thunderstorms with locally heavier rainfall rates.  The long term
may end with the opportunity for a rather brief shot of at least
drier, if not milder air that may follow the stronger short wave
crossing the Great Lakes, although lower confidence at the moment
with this potential lower humidity.  High temperatures through the
period will range from around 80F on Saturday to low to mid-80s
thereafter...while overnight lows trend from the mid to upper 60s to
around 70F.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Impacts:

- VFR deteriorating to MVFR around 15-16Z this morning amid -SHRA
- MVFR ceilings falling to IFR overnight
- MVFR visibility possible at times after 15Z, especially at KLAF
- Periods of -SHRA, with embedded/isolated TSRA that may produce
brief downpours

Discussion:

VFR conditions early this morning...will deteriorate to MVFR
ceilings from west to east during midday hours following the arrival
of numerous to widespread -SHRA and a few TSRA.  Brief improvement
to low-VFR CIGs is possible late today at KBMG and possibly KHUF.
Further CIG deterioration expected during 03Z-09Z to IFR...although
KIND should improve to MVFR CIG midday Saturday.

Visibility is also expected to drop to MVFR at times after 18Z
today, especially at KLAF.  Overall scattered to numerous -SHRA,
including a few TSRA...is expected to have greatest coverage this
evening.  Although did not include thunder in any TAF per confidence
too low at any given time.

Light winds this morning will lead to generally 4-8KT flow this
afternoon, slowly veering through southeasterly directions.  Gusts
to 15-25KT are possible this afternoon in and near isolated heavier
downpours.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...AGM