Greenfield, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

356
FXUS63 KIND 111812
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
212 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm through Thursday

- Rain and storm chances increase for Friday and Saturday, possibly
  lingering into Sunday

- Slow moving storms will have a heavy rain and localized flood
  threat late Friday through Saturday

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Beautiful afternoon in progress as the Ohio Valley remains under the
influence of high pressure. 18Z temperatures were largely in the
upper 70s and lower 80s with pleasant humidity levels.

The short term will remain dry as the surface ridge moves away to
the east slowly but the overall transition back to a more unsettled
pattern will commence with progressively deeper moisture beginning
to get drawn north into the region as the day progresses Thursday.
Ridging aloft will remain over the Ohio Valley within an
increasingly split flow regime but the upper low producing the
convection across Texas today will slowly lift towards the region
with mid and high level clouds expanding into central Indiana. The
main impacts from the upper low though will not be felt across
central Indiana until the second half of Friday.

Much of the thicker smoke aloft had diminished this afternoon with
less of a haze present. Skies will remain mainly clear into the
evening with southwest winds and temperatures topping out in the low
to mid 80s. Cirrus will gradually lift into the region tonight and
into Thursday as the upper low moves into eastern Oklahoma by late
day. The arrival of a Gulf moisture plume lifting up the east side
of the upper low will lead to a slow increase in dewpoints into the
60s on Thursday and a likely return of diurnal cu for the afternoon
with better moisture within the boundary layer. Deeper low level
moisture will not arrive until Thursday night at the earliest
however with any convection focused to the southwest of the forecast
area prior to Thursday evening.

Temps...with light southerly winds and increasing warm advection...
lows should hold in the lower to mid 60s. Despite gradually
increasing clouds Thursday...low level thermals support mid 80s
across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Split flow aloft will persist through the weekend with the jet
stream well to the north close to the Canadian border. An upper low
will lift out of Texas and move slowly through the Ohio Valley into
the weekend before becoming absorbed by the jet stream to the north.
This will bring a return to unsettled weather for Friday and
Saturday and possibly into Sunday before drier conditions return. A
strong upper level ridge will build into the southern Plains by the
middle of next week and place the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
on its periphery and within a favored zone for increased impacts for
convective clusters.

Thursday Night through Sunday

Remnants of the midweek dry airmass will still be present across the
region Thursday evening but a much deeper plume of moisture lifting
out of the Gulf will advect into the Ohio Valley ahead of the
approaching upper low by Friday morning. A frontal boundary will
become quasi-stationary across the area and aid in enhancing low
level convergence as the moisture plume arrives. Expect an
increasingly unstable environment but with weak BL shear to result
in areas of slow moving multicellular convection focused especially
from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. Forecast soundings
support the threat for heavy rain with PWATs increasing to near 2
inches resulting in a possible localized flood threat for areas
getting repeated rounds of convection...especially across the
southern half of the forecast area. Mesoscale features and
boundaries will likely impact where repeated areas of convection
align which will become clearer in the next day or two. For now...
keeping broad higher precip chances for at least the southern half
of the region and will fine tune placement and timing and details
accordingly.

Sporadic severe storms are possible but convection will likely be of
a pulse intensity and short lived in the absence of more substantial
shear needed for organized severe weather. Gusty winds and small
hail will be possible with any stronger cells as cores collapse.

Model guidance over the last 24 hours continues to promote potential
for more of a drier day with a lower convective risk Sunday as the
stagnant boundary shifts south of the Ohio River with high pressure
settling across the Great Lakes. The front remains in close enough
proximity to warrant a continued mention of precip chances focused
especially across the southeast half of the forecast area.

The deeper moisture advection from the south will raise dewpoints
and consequently humidity levels noticeably late Friday and through
the weekend with borderline oppressive Tds peaking in the lower 70s
at times. Highs will largely remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s
through the weekend with the increase clouds and convection. All in
all it will be a muggy feel to the air.

Sunday Night through Wednesday

Weak surface high pressure over the Great Lakes Sunday will drift
through the region into the early part of the week and may provide a
brief period of drier and slightly less humid weather. But the
expansion of broad ridging aloft into the southern Plains by the
middle of next week will place the region onto the periphery of the
ridge and in the primary zone for mesoscale convective systems
(MCSs) to ride up and over the ridge from the northern Plains and
upper Midwest southeast into the Ohio Valley. It remains far too
early to employ any detail into the development of this
pattern...but confidence is growing in an increased threat for
convective impacts for much of next week. Highs will rise into the
mid and upper 80s with muggy conditions likely returning by Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1217 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

Mainly sunny skies across central Indiana early this afternoon with
high pressure overhead. Lingering smoke aloft was producing haze but
not as thick as that experienced on Tuesday. Quiet weather will
continue with a subtle increase in high level clouds from the
southwest late today into Thursday morning. The onset of deeper
moisture within the boundary layer on Thursday will aid in
development of a diurnal cu field for the afternoon.

Predominant southwest winds up to 10kts this afternoon will diminish
to light southerly tonight and Thursday morning. Cannot rule out
brief visibility impacts from fog early Thursday morning at all
terminals but KIND...but confidence is not high enough for inclusion
at this time.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan