Franklin, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

557
FXUS63 KIND 101930
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
230 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low potential for fog tonight

- Above normal temperatures will likely continue through late week,
  outside of brief seasonal temperatures Tuesday

- Rain chances return late Wednesday into early Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 227 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Tonight.

Quiet weather with mostly clear skies expected for much of the night
tonight with drier air continuing to move in aloft and the core of
the upper level jet remains north of the forecast area. The main
forecast question will be the potential for some near surface
stratus/fog towards daybreak tomorrow.  As the LLJ begins to ramp
back upwards late tonight there will be a slight surge of moisture
near the surface with model soundings showing saturation in the
lowest 3000ft.  It seems reasonable that there may be at least some
low stratus with the potential for pockets of fog, especially in
rural areas. Wind speeds should remain high enough through daybreak
to keep any fog from being dense and to limit the coverage of the
fog. There isn`t a ton of model support for fog or low stratus, but
models tend to underdo the fog/low stratus threat on the backend of
these more active weather systems.

Monday.

Areas of stratus are likely to persist through the day tomorrow as a
fetch of lake enhanced moisture begins to move into the northwestern
counties.  Surface winds will be more westerly with occasional gusts
to 20 mph across the northern counties where the surface pressure
gradients are expected to be a bit tighter. Temperatures will again
be mild with highs ranging from the upper 50s in the north to the
low 60s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 227 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Synoptic Pattern:

The upper level flow will be typical for shoulder months with
quickly passing meridional flow expected. However, the low levels
will predominantly dominated by anomalously warm air and western
Atlantic ridging keeping warmer than normal conditions and
mitigating impacts from upper level trough passages.

The first trough passage is expected to be on Tuesday, but with
strong surface high pressure and dry air beneath the trough. This
will lead to a dry cold front passage, with temperatures and a wind
shift as the only variability. The next trough is likely to arrive
over the middle of the week; nearing late Wednesday and passing
through Wednesday night through Thursday. Low level cyclogenesis is
expected upstream of the Ohio Valley in this instance due to modest
diabatic pressure depletion and a more pronounced jet attached. With
that said, subtropical ridging and upper level AVA will hinder
trough progression, resulting in the surface low weakening and
becoming cut-off.

This meridional flow pattern is expected to continue through the end
of the extended with additional upper level trough passages, but
predominant ridging influence over the western Atlantic will likely
inhibit overall impacts. As we head into the later parts of
November through, this subtropical ridging influence will likely
become less prominent as the NAO shifts towards negative, and the AO
shifts towards positive.



Temperatures:

Given 850 anomalies remaining in the 60-80th percentile through the
next 7-10 days, surface temperatures are expected to primarily
remain above seasonal normals. The main exception will likely be
Tuesday as a dry clipper low quickly passes including a quick drop
in temperatures.


Precipitation:

Our main threat for rainfall in the extended will be with the trough
passage Wednesday/Thursday. This trough passage will likely have
deep large scale ascent along with a moderate plume of moisture
attached within SW flow. Surface low filling as it reaches the Ohio
Valley will limit QPF expectations some, but a general 0.25"-0.75"
of rain over a 24 hour period are possible if not likely.

Another trough passage late next week/weekend will provide
additional rain chances, however ensemble members are widely spread
on the trough`s strength and therefore ability to break down western
Atlantic ridging. This has lead to a wide range of outcomes and very
low confidence as of this issuance.
.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1143 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Impacts:

- Wind gusts to 25kts through 01Z

Discussion:

Cigs have generally improved to VFR or will be doing so shortly as
drier air moves in aloft. As skies clear, southwesterly wind gusts
to 25kts are expected through 01Z when winds will drop to around 4-
7kts as they become more westerly. Additional gusts are possible
tomorrow along with a low threat for MVFR cigs at LAF.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...White