Evansville, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

315
FXUS63 KPAH 022109
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
409 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A major severe weather outbreak is anticipated this afternoon
  and evening, possibly into the overnight; strong tornadoes,
  very large hail, and damaging winds are expected.

- Ahead of the storms, very strong south winds will continue to
  gust 40-55 mph at times today.

- Historically high forecast rainfall amounts of up to a foot
  will lead to significant and widespread flooding Wednesday
  through Sunday.

- Additional rounds of severe storms are possible Thursday and
  especially Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

As noted in the previous SWOMCD a few discrete supercells have
formed in west Tennessee in a very favorable environment for
tornadoes. The PAH VWP shows about 340 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH LAPS
and SPC mesoscale analysis shows about 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE with
temperature working into the 80s. Cell clusters to the west of
the area in Missouri have not maintained strong organization yet
but bowing segments are beginning to become evident in northern
Arkansas on cells that have a trajectory into southeast
Missouri. The general expectation is low level shear will
become stronger over the next two to three hours as this
activity approaches posing a significant risk for tornadoes, and
potentially strong tornadoes as well as an evolving risk for
damaging winds and large hail.

 &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

     Rare and dangerous pattern emerges with particularly
dangerous severe weather and flash flood threats through
Saturday...

A dangerous severe weather situation is developing across the
region this afternoon. Thunderstorms are increasing in intensity
across MO/AR amid subtle ascent from the right exit region of a
130-140 kt jet max to the northwest with a weak embedded
shortwave. Cloud tops are cooling on this activity to the west
and the more subtle lift and shear orientation have kept this
activity more discrete so far.

Rich and deep boundary layer moisture is streaming in from the
lower Mississippi where dewpoints are in the 70s with 7.5-8.0
C/km mid level lapse rates. VWP and model deep layer shear is
45-55kt and 0-1km shear is 31-35 kts with a long looping
hodograph giving 0-1km SRH around 300-350 m2/s2. A weakening
capping inversion is holding off a line of showers that have
formed from Fulton to about Mt. Vernon, IN. We expect this cap
will hold until the upper trough gets a little closer.

The storms in MO/AR will enter an increasingly volatile and
likely increase in intensity. STP values of 3-7 are anticipated
as this broken line of storms approaches. Mixed modes with
clusters of storms, bow echoes and supercells are expected. Each
of which could pose a tornado or significant damaging wind
threat. Destructive tornadoes (EF3+) would be entirely possible
in this parameter space and SPC has highlighted they expect EF3+
tornadoes somewhere in the ongoing High Risk area which
includes much of the Paducah CWA. Rainfall rates will be extreme
as precipitable water values reach 1.9" to 2.0" inches which is
more than 0.3" more than climatological record. With the very
steep lapse rates initially very large hail will also be
possible.

This activity should be strong enough to form cold pools
sufficient to push the cold front behind these storms all the
way through despite the parallel upper level flow. However
continued large scale ascent during the day Thursday will keep
rain and thunderstorms possible although the risk of severe
weather should be mitigated somewhat as actual surface based
instability should be limited making hail the main threat if
things go like they are anticipated.

Friday the surface front shifts back west across the area
putting the region in 68-71 degree dewpoints. We end up in the
right exit region of a broad jet max with a trough over the
intermountain west. More vigorous thunderstorms with tornado,
wind, hail risk will then develop in the late afternoon and
evening with especially heavy rain, with PWATs back above 1.8".

The actual upper trough then moves through Saturday bringing a
continued severe risk. From Friday into Saturday midday may be
the heaviest rain of the event. The new forecast maintains storm
total precip over 10 inches across most of western Kentucky,
with 6-8 inches to the northwest and north of there.
Significant, and potentially catastrophic impacts remain
entirely possible and are likely somewhere in the watch area. We
maintain a PDS flash flood watch through the duration for this
event.

A cold front sweeps through Saturday putting us in a cooler and
much less chaotic airmass and pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

High based cumulus and strong south to southwest winds will
continue through the afternoon. A cluster of strong to severe
storms will move east through the afternoon. Very strong winds
and isolated tornadoes will be possible with the area of storms.
Light to moderate rain will persist behind the front through
most of the TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for INZ081-
     082-085>088.
     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for KYZ001>022.
     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JGG
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG