Elkhart, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

298
FXUS63 KIWX 150554
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1254 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy with patchy drizzle into mid morning.

- Temperatures warm this weekend into the start of next week.

- More rain is in the forecast starting Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

An area of low pressure is exiting Indiana as of midday while
drizzle lingers over its western flank. Low-level water vapor
imagery shows and ample dry slot working through, but a narrow band
of wrap around moisture is streaming in aloft. This narrow moisture
axis will track east through time, eventually marking the end of
drizzle in its wake. Lakeside, however, rain showers and drizzle are
favored through most of the night until surface high pressure
squashes inversion heights.

Time-height cross sections favor mostly cloudy skies into tomorrow
afternoon as the parent upper-level low is slow to move east. An
upper-level ridge encompassing the Plains builds into our local area
Friday night finally allowing low clouds to mix out. This ridge
will also provide above-normal temperatures. Month to date,
Fort Wayne and South Bend have an average temperature 6 to 7
degrees above normal, respectively. A low lifting north of the
Great Lakes threatens to bring light rain to the forecast
Sunday, but this seems most favorable north of I-94 in Michigan.

Questions are mounting about a pattern change by the end of next
week. Details remain sparse as guidance continues to provide wildly
different solutions run-to-run. What is clear is that there will be
a deep trough moving through the Great Basin and ejecting out into
the Central Plains. At this distance, it seems favored that we will
generally be in the warm sector of a Great Plains low. The magnitude
of any cold air wrapping around as the low departs late in the week
is uncertain locally. Similarly, the magnitude of the cold air
advection across Lake Michigan is also uncertain. How this
coexists with any lingering wrap-around moisture is also
uncertain. Overall, a turbulent late-week forecast will be
monitored closely and messaged appropriately as forecast details
come to light.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Patchy drizzle was occurring in the wake of the departing
surface low and extended well to the west over northeast IL. The
drizzle should end by mid morning as drier air continues to
spread over the area. Have kept IFR conditions out for now, but
a brief VSBY down to 2SM and 008 ceiling is possible past
daybreak. Otherwise, have conditions becoming VFR by 02Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Skipper