Elkhart, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

652
FXUS63 KIWX 101020
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
620 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry today, highs in the 70s

- Dry and much warmer Wednesday, highs in the 80s

- Warm Thursday with chances for showers and thunderstorms,

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

An anomalously and seasonally deep upper level low and associated
trof extended from James Bay (near the south end of Hudson Bay) into
the Upper Great Lakes region. This system that had been helping to
keep a cool and wet pattern over forecast area was now lifting
northeast out of the region. Dry weather will prevail today with
warming temperatures Wednesday as very warm air spreads east into
the forecast area from the Central Plains. 850 mb GFS forecast
temperatures show the east edge of a very warm airmass (+17C)
reaching the forecast area. When these warm temperatures are
warmed dry adiabatically Wednesday, they should render highs in
the upper 80s. This warm air intrusion will mark a transition
to a more summer type of pattern to follow with highs mostly in
the 80s and late afternoon/early evening scattered showers and
storms. Some remaining energy of an upper low and upper trof
will eject out of the Southern Plains and reach the forecast
area late this week. This system will enhance chances for showers
and storms Friday night and Saturday, but severe weather is not
expected.

As for the smoke, it seems the HRRR has been overdoing the smoke
in our area. Observations from our county yesterday and
overnight tonight here at the NWS office indicate only the
slightest presence of elevated smoke.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through this forecast
valid period. Water vapor imagery early this morning depicts
a weak northwest flow wave moving through upstream portion of
parent upper level circulation centered across northern Great
Lakes. Passage of this feature will keep a broad, weak low level
thermal trough in place across the region today. Diurnal sfc
warming combined with presence of this low level thermal trough
should support decent mixing up to around 5k feet today. Top of
mixed layer winds in the 20 to 25 knot range suggest another
potential of some westerly gusts around 20 knots today. VFR cu
associated with these steep low level lapse rates should
diminish as boundary layer decouples this evening and sfc wind
speeds diminish to 5 knots or less.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili