Elkhart, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

024
FXUS63 KIWX 142344
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
644 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Inland, drizzle and rain showers gradually depart this
  evening. Lake effect rain showers persist lakeside.

- Temperatures warm this weekend into the start of next week.

- More rain is in the forecast starting Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

An area of low pressure is exiting Indiana as of midday while
drizzle lingers over its western flank. Low-level water vapor
imagery shows and ample dry slot working through, but a narrow band
of wrap around moisture is streaming in aloft. This narrow moisture
axis will track east through time, eventually marking the end of
drizzle in its wake. Lakeside, however, rain showers and drizzle are
favored through most of the night until surface high pressure
squashes inversion heights.

Time-height cross sections favor mostly cloudy skies into tomorrow
afternoon as the parent upper-level low is slow to move east. An
upper-level ridge encompassing the Plains builds into our local area
Friday night finally allowing low clouds to mix out. This ridge
will also provide above-normal temperatures. Month to date,
Fort Wayne and South Bend have an average temperature 6 to 7
degrees above normal, respectively. A low lifting north of the
Great Lakes threatens to bring light rain to the forecast
Sunday, but this seems most favorable north of I-94 in Michigan.

Questions are mounting about a pattern change by the end of next
week. Details remain sparse as guidance continues to provide wildly
different solutions run-to-run. What is clear is that there will be
a deep trough moving through the Great Basin and ejecting out into
the Central Plains. At this distance, it seems favored that we will
generally be in the warm sector of a Great Plains low. The magnitude
of any cold air wrapping around as the low departs late in the week
is uncertain locally. Similarly, the magnitude of the cold air
advection across Lake Michigan is also uncertain. How this
coexists with any lingering wrap-around moisture is also
uncertain. Overall, a turbulent late-week forecast will be
monitored closely and messaged appropriately as forecast details
come to light.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

The slow moving upper level low will continue to move eastward
through the overnight period with periods of low clouds and
spotty light rain showers/drizzle continuing to diminish. CIGs may
still drop to around 500 ft at KSBN however will be short lived
through 04z Friday.Otherwise, persistent moist low levels will
keep clouds around 1000-2000 feet through around 21z Friday for
both TAF sites. Northwest winds will remain light at 6 to 9
knots through the TAF period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Andersen