Elkhart, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

322
FXUS63 KIWX 230559
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1259 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 20-40% chance of rain and drizzle tonight. Lows 33-39 deg.

- Trending warmer in the days ahead with highs near 50 degrees
  as early as Wednesday and Thursday.

- 60-80% chance of rain Wednesday night and Thursday night.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

A weak upper-level impulse streaking across the upper Great Lakes
this morning failed to produce any precipitation across far southern
Michigan; abundant dry air proving too much to overcome. A warm
front is noted across the Tennessee valley and this will
gradually lift north as low-level flow become southwesterly
encountering a southern US ridge of high pressure. This warm
front will allow for low-level saturation to improve overnight.
Paired with the departing right-entrance region at 500 mb, there
remains a chance for light rain and drizzle tonight. Forecast
soundings depict a sufficiently mild profile to negate any
winter weather concerns. Incoming high pressure ultimately ends
any wet weather as Tuesday progresses but a low- level inversion
threatens to keep clouds locked in place until late afternoon.

A progressive upper-air pattern in the days to come presents
forecast temperature challenges but generally mild conditions and
periodic chances for rain. Canadian high pressure centered over the
upper Great Lakes on Wednesday and Thursday had resulted in large
temperature discrepancies which are finally beginning to narrow.
Return southerly flow on Thursday as the high shifts east may
permit a few sites to reach the mid-50s south of US 24, but it
otherwise seems that highs near or just shy of 50 will be the
norm; good for a top-10 warmest Christmas at Fort Wayne. There
is a chance of rain Wednesday night as warm front attempts to
lift in.

The late-week and weekend forecast continues to feature a
chance of rain Friday as an upper-level wave streaks through.
This is followed by a deeper low moving through Ontario on
Sunday, bringing the risk of rain changing to lake effect snow
and sharply cooler conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

Predominantly VFR to MVFR conditions at the TAF sites, with IFR
potential at KFWA possible late tonight into late Tue morning.
A warm front lifted into northern IN this evening, generally
oriented from KSBN through KFWA or slightly north (with LLWS at
40kts expected through around 10-11z at KFWA). This brought MVFR
ceilings to both terminals, and light rain at KSBN for a brief
period. Light drizzle is possible through the overnight,
especially at KFWA where reflectivity is increasing south of the
terminal with a couple rain/drizzle reports on the ground as of
this writing. Still uncertain with regards to whether IFR
ceilings develop, but much of the guidance (and some of
upstream obs) suggest a ceiling around 1000-1500 ft and 4-6SM
vis through morning. Have a prob30 still for IFR ceilings around
700 ft (there are a couple models/obs still suggesting around
700-900ft for a short period). Otherwise, improving towards the
afternoon and evening hours to high-end MVFR/VFR conditions,
with a wind shift to the west-northwest.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...MCD