Elkhart, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

303
FXUS63 KIWX 221903
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
203 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and drizzle developing tonight (20-40% chance).

- Trending warmer in the days ahead with highs near 50 degrees
  as early as Wednesday and Thursday.

- 60-80% chance of rain Wednesday night and Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

A weak upper-level impulse streaking across the upper Great Lakes
this morning failed to produce any precipitation across far southern
Michigan; abundant dry air proving too much to overcome. A warm
front is noted across the Tennessee valley and this will
gradually lift north as low-level flow become southwesterly
encountering a southern US ridge of high pressure. This warm
front will allow for low-level saturation to improve overnight.
Paired with the departing right-entrance region at 500 mb, there
remains a chance for light rain and drizzle tonight. Forecast
soundings depict a sufficiently mild profile to negate any
winter weather concerns. Incoming high pressure ultimately ends
any wet weather as Tuesday progresses but a low- level inversion
threatens to keep clouds locked in place until late afternoon.

A progressive upper-air pattern in the days to come presents
forecast temperature challenges but generally mild conditions and
periodic chances for rain. Canadian high pressure centered over the
upper Great Lakes on Wednesday and Thursday had resulted in large
temperature discrepancies which are finally beginning to narrow.
Return southerly flow on Thursday as the high shifts east may
permit a few sites to reach the mid-50s south of US 24, but it
otherwise seems that highs near or just shy of 50 will be the
norm; good for a top-10 warmest Christmas at Fort Wayne. There
is a chance of rain Wednesday night as warm front attempts to
lift in.

The late-week and weekend forecast continues to feature a
chance of rain Friday as an upper-level wave streaks through.
This is followed by a deeper low moving through Ontario on
Sunday, bringing the risk of rain changing to lake effect snow
and sharply cooler conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

With high pressure sliding eastward, warm advection enters the area
tonight allowing an area of mid level moisture to lower tonight
towards the surface. Some sprinkles or drizzle are possible, but
probably the biggest hazard is going to be the MVFR CIGs that make a
run at IFR tonight. The SREF guidance is bringing chances for
lowered VIS late tonight into Tues AM, but am skeptical of that
given sustained winds at or above 10 kts. LAV guidance just has MVFR
BR mid morning tomorrow, which seems more likely if winds do stay
excited overnight. Either way, do expect south winds to veer towards
southwesterly by Tues AM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Roller