Carmel, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

148
FXUS63 KIND 290702
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
302 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog with locally dense fog possible through daybreak before
  quickly mixing out

- Rain/storm chances persist through Monday with the greatest chance
  during the afternoon to early evening hours

- Localized flooding is the primary threat today and Monday, but
  isolated strong wind gusts are also possible on Monday

- Drier and slightly cooler weather expected towards the middle of this
  week before more humid conditions return Friday into next weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Radar and satellite observations show quiet weather conditions
across the region. This is due to subtle high pressure settling in
which has led to very weak winds over the area. Light winds combined
with low level moisture (dewpoints in the low 70s) will likely lead
to patchy fog development over the next few hours, especially in any
areas that received rainfall on Saturday. Strong daytime heating
should quickly mix out any fog after sunrise.

Deeper moisture is expected to slowly advect northward during the
day as southerly flow increases gradually ahead of an approaching
system. This along with strong diurnal heating will promote
scattered convection, primarily during the afternoon to early
evening hours. High PWATs around or greater than 2.0 inches, warm
rain processes, and very weak deep-layer resulting in slow-moving
storms could lead to localized flooding. Severe weather is not
expected due to poor lapse rates and negligible deep-layer shear.

Despite the loss of daytime heating overnight, increasing dynamics
from the approaching disturbance mentioned earlier will keep rain
chances elevated. Expect deep moisture to also still be in place.
POPs remain capped at or below 30% early tonight as overall forcing
will be weak. POPs then increase to around 30-50% late once stronger
forcing begins to move in. Look for highs in the mid-upper 80s today
with temperatures tonight remaining in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Monday through Monday night..

Expect the unsettled weather pattern to continue early in the work
week. Increasing dynamics from an upper wave and an associated cold
front moving through will support the best chance for precipitation
over the next 7 days. Look for strengthening southwesterly flow
ahead of system to advect deeper moisture northward. Latest guidance
shows PWATs peaking around or slightly higher than 2.0 inches. These
high PWATs and warm rain processes could lead to localized flooding.
Deep-layer shear is weak so severe weather appears unlikely, but
moderate destabilization and marginal effective bulk shear may
promote isolated strong wind gusts with any loosely organized
storms.

The system begins to shift east Monday night with rain chances
diminishing. Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected overnight
once drier air filters in behind the departing cold front. Expect
highs to generally be in the mid 80s and lows around the mid 60s to
near 70F.

Tuesday onward...

Mostly quiet weather is expected Tuesday through Thursday as weak
high pressure settles in. Dewpoints falling into the 60s and
possibly even upper 50s across the north should feel much more
comfortable compared to the very humid conditions last week. It is
worth noting, a few models depict a weak frontal boundary moving in
from the north on Thursday. A narrow band of moisture ahead of the
boundary and weak forcing could perhaps lead to isolated showers or
storms.

Ensemble guidance suggest deeper moisture begins to stream northward
again towards the end of the week with upper ridging shifting east.
This will lead to increasing rain chances, particularly during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Overall forcing appears very weak
until a system approaches over the weekend so expect any diurnal
convection to be isolated.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Impacts:

- Patchy fog tonight, perhaps dense in spots

- Isolated to Scattered afternoon showers and storms expected today

Discussion:

Patchy fog is expected to develop tonight with low level moisture
and light winds. Whether it occurs at a TAF site remains somewhat
uncertain, but will continue to keep a mention of MVFR fog for now
at most sites except IND where confidence is even lower. Locally
dense fog may form if conditions set up just right.

Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected once
again today. The best chance for storms is near BMG where a PROB30
was included. Elsewhere, confidence in thunderstorms impacting any
site is much too low for an explicit mention. There is a better
chance for showers and storms late tonight as a system approaches
the region. A PROB30 was included at IND after 06Z Monday. Winds
will remain light and out of the south/southwest during the
period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Melo