Springfield, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

859
FXUS63 KILX 141108
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
508 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous cold persists through tonight, with wind chills as
  cold as 15 to 30 degrees below zero at times.

- Areas of blowing snow are possible late tonight into Monday
  morning. This could result in localized, sharp visibility
  reductions, as well as drifting of snow onto roadways. The
  greatest impacts will be on east-west oriented roads.

- A warming trend is expected this week, with highs in the mid 40s
  to mid 50s by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

*** DANGEROUS COLD ***

Saturday`s event brought a stripe of 5-8" of snow roughly from
Galesburg/Macomb east to Danville, with slightly lower amounts of
3- 6" southward to the I-70 corridor. Snow has long since ended
and strong sfc high pressure (1040 mb) has settled over the
central Plains, with clear skies across the ILX CWA
overnight/early Sun AM. Dangerous cold remains the top concern,
with air temps ranging from the single digits south of I-72 to the
single digits below zero along/north of I-72/Danville. With the
sfc high still off the to west, northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph
have resulted in widespread apparent temps of 10 to 20 below zero,
with some locations dropping as low as 25 below at times. The
extreme cold warning/cold weather advisory for Sunday morning were
not changed.

The bitter cold air mass will remain in place through the day,
with the snow cover further helping to limit warming during the
day despite ample sunshine. The result in highs stuck in the
single digits above zero. The sfc high will shift almost directly
overhead by this evening, resulting in favorable radiational
cooling during the evening. Accordingly, anticipate temps will
drop sharply after sunset, with some of the coldest temps of the
night occurring during the evening/late evening hours (single
digits below zero). The high will continue shifting east through
the night, resulting in the development of southerly flow that
steadily increases in strength, peaking at 10-20 mph. Despite this
southerly wind warming temps slightly during the overnight, the
net result of the winds will be to push the apparent temps back to
advisory criteria (as low as 20 below). The latest HREF (14.00z)
gave a 50-80% chance of meeting advisory criteria, roughly along a
Macomb to Shelbyville line (and eastward), thus the cold weather
advisory was extended in these areas through 6 AM Monday.

*** BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ***

With no melting anticipated today, the lack of a surface crust on
the fresh snow pack will leave the region susceptible to
blowing/drifting snow during periods of elevated winds. Some
patchy blowing snow is possible early this morning, but winds are
currently around 15 mph or less, with weakening expected into the
day as the sfc high approaches. A better chance will be late Sun
night into Mon morning as those southerly winds develop and become
breezy. Added a mention of blowing snow to the forecast during
this time frame. The greatest impacts will be on east-west
oriented roads. Localized, sharp visibility reductions are
possible in any areas of blowing snow.

*** MID-WEEK WARM UP ***

Below normal temps have dominated the forecast since Thanksgiving,
but mercifully, some warmer conditions are on the horizon. After
southerly flow on Mon, a sfc low is set to track north of the
Great Lakes on Tues, keeping southerly winds locally. However,
with the seasonably deep snow pack in place, it`s going to be
difficult to warm much above freezing, and the NBM keeps highs in
the mid/upper 30s in most locations. Combined with the breezy
winds, I don`t think it will feel mild, but at least it`s not
more bitter cold.

However, the warming trend steadily persists through the week,
with the warmest day expected to be Thurs as very breezy
southerly flow develops ahead of an approaching cold front. Temps
are forecast to climb into the mid 40s (north of I-74) to mid 50s
(south of I-70), but once again, the breezy winds will prevent it
from being all that enjoyable. The associated sfc low will track
towards the northern Great Lakes on Thurs, with a greater than 50%
chance of sfc pressure falling below 990 mb, which will result in
the strong pressure gradient across IL. Will need to keep an eye
on the potential for a wind advisory Thurs, as the latest NBM has
a 40-70% chance for gusts over 40 mph. Precip appears likely
along/ahead of the cold front, with the temps favoring primarily
rain, although a brief transition to a rain-snow mix can`t be
ruled out, depending on how quickly cold air surges in behind the
front. Guidance currently has a 20-60% chance for over a quarter
inch of liquid precip with this system, with probabilities
increasing with eastward extent.

Depending on the timing of the front, we may experience non-
diurnal temp trends on Thurs (temps falling during the day following
the frontal passage), but will need to evaluate higher resolution
guidance to better assess these specifics. At any rate, another
push of cold air will move in by Thurs night, albeit nothing as
extreme as the current air mass. The NBM has just a 20-40% chance
of air temps falling into the single digits north of I-70.

Erwin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 504 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions are favored through the period, although patchy
blowing snow could result in localized vis reductions during the
first few hours of the period. Northwest winds, around 10 knots
currently, will weaken through the day and eventually become light
and variable during the afternoon. South-southwesterly winds
develop overnight into Monday morning. Will need to monitor the
potential for marginal LLWS around 12z Mon as a 45 kt LLJ shifts
overhead. Blowing snow is also possible Monday morning as the
southwesterly flow increases. For now, did not include LLWS or
BLSN in the TAF for Mon AM.

Erwin

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for ILZ027>031-036-
037-040>042-048-051-062-063.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for ILZ038-043>046-
052>057-061.

Cold Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Monday for
ILZ038-043>046-052>057-061.

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ047-049-050-
066>068-071>073.

&&

$$