Springfield, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

062
FXUS63 KILX 022324
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
624 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant severe weather is expected east of I-55 this
  evening. A few tornadoes, wind gusts to 80 mph, and isolated
  large hail 1.5 inches in diameter are possible with the
  strongest thunderstorms.

- Strong southerly winds will continue this evening, especially
  east of I-55 where gusts to 50 mph are expected.

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will lead to a risk
  for areas of flooding, especially in portions of east-central
  and southeast IL where a Flood Watch is in effect until Sunday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...Severe Weather Today...

A line of severe thunderstorms continues to develop along and
just east of I-55 this afternoon as a moisture and instability
rich warm sector of a potent low pressure system resides over the
area. Up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 60+ kts effective bulk shear, and
over 200 m2/s2 effective storm relative helicity have prompted the
issuance of a tornado watch in this area. Current high-res models
suggest this activity should be near I-57 by 7 pm, and exit
central portions of IL into IN by 10 PM. Severe weather threats
include tornadoes, wind gusts to 80 mph, and large hail to 1.5
inch diameter.

...Strong Winds Today...
A Wind Advisory remains in effect across the area, with gusts to
50 mph noted east of I-55 this afternoon, and lighter gusts noted
to the west. West of the line of thunderstorms, winds will taper
off this evening, and the wind advisory will be able to be trimmed
down for western areas this evening.

...Flood Risk Across Southeast IL...
Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall can be expected for portions of
central and southeast IL through Saturday night, starting with
corridors of training thunderstorms that could exceed 2 inches
this evening. As the approaching cold front moves south of the
area late tonight, it will stall near the Ohio River for the next
few days allowing a series of disturbances to track along this
boundary. The first will focus south of I-70 Thursday night with
another inch or so. The second Friday into Friday night,
affecting a much larger portion of central IL, looks to produce 1
to 3 inches, but features more uncertainty in area. The peak
values in this wave looks to be between I-70 and I-72. Finally, a
third wave Saturday into Saturday night looks focused south of
I-70 with up to another 3 inches. Current projections are for
totals of 5 to 7 inches from Shelby to Edgar County southward
where a Flood Watch has been issued. Given uncertainty in
precipitation at this long range, have not expanded the Flood
Watch north of the Shelby to Edgar County corridor, but
conceivably it could expand northward if the Friday system
solidifies its high precipitation corridor farther north.

...Severe Weather Friday...

Friday afternoon and evening could see another round of severe
thunderstorms, especially south of I-70 where a Slight Risk has
been designated by SPC in response to several hundred J/kg CAPE
and strong deep layer shear.

37

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Thunderstorms have passed KSPI-KBMI, but linger near KDEC-KCMI
until 01Z-02Z. A cold front trailing just behind these
thunderstorms will cause winds to shift more westerly and
diminish this evening. A disturbance lifting
into the area Thursday afternoon into evening could produce light
rain over much of the area, but conditions are expected to remain
VFR. Winds SSW 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts initially, becoming
WSW 8-12 kts by 05Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-036-037-
040>042-047>051.

Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ038-043>046-
052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ054>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

$$