Springfield, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

843
FXUS63 KILX 102051
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
251 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next chance for showers will arrive late Wednesday: however,
  significant rainfall is not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

20z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1005mb low over northern Wisconsin
with an occluded frontal boundary extending southeastward into
the Ohio River Valley. Upon passage of the front, a drier airmass
has spilled into central Illinois on strong W/SW winds this
afternoon. Winds have routinely been gusting 30-35mph...with a few
observations peaking at around 40mph. Thanks to dry advection
from the southwest and deep-layer mixing, dewpoints have dropped
into the 40s. The gusty winds will begin to subside toward sunset,
then as the atmosphere decouples will quickly decrease to less than
10mph by mid-evening. Cloud cover associated with an upper low
over the Great Lakes will continue to pivot across the northern
KILX CWA this evening, but will tend to dissipate overnight.
Thanks to mostly clear skies and lighter winds, low temperatures
will drop into the lower 40s...with a few upper 30s in favored
low-lying spots.

A secondary cold front analyzed across North Dakota/Montana will
sink southeastward into Illinois on Monday. With deep-layer
moisture missing, only mid/high clouds and a shift in the wind are
anticipated with FROPA. With winds veering to the north, highs
will be a couple of degrees cooler than today...ranging from the
middle 50s far north around Galesburg and Lacon to the middle 60s
south of I-70.

Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

As high pressure builds into the Midwest, chilly overnight lows in
the lower to middle 30s are anticipated Monday night...followed by
abundant sunshine but cool highs in the lower to middle 50s on
Tuesday.

As has been advertised by the past several model runs, a short-wave
trough is expected to track across the country and swing through
Illinois by the middle of the week. 12z Nov 10 models continue to
slow the arrival of the wave and its associated cold front
slightly, with consensus now showing passage Wednesday night.
Modest moisture return ahead of the system with a narrow corridor
of NAM precipitable water values of 1-1.25 suggest a better chance
for precipitation than previously thought. As a result, have
increased PoPs Wednesday afternoon/evening...focusing the highest
(60-70%) along/southeast of a Paris to Effingham line. Storm total
rainfall will remain light with much of the area only seeing
0.10-0.25. Locations south of I-70 will pick up a bit more thanks
to longer/more sustained moisture return from the south resulting
in totals 0f 0.25-0.50 there.

Once the front passes, a return to mild and dry weather is
expected for the end of the week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

A bad of low clouds across central/eastern Iowa will pivot E/NE
across parts of central Illinois this afternoon. Current obs show
mainly MVFR ceilings across Iowa: however, think these will
gradually improve to low VFR by the time they spill into KPIA and
KBMI over the next couple of hours. Further south, have maintained
just SCT coverage at the I-72 terminals as the clouds skirt by to
the north. The clouds will eventually lift away from central
Illinois and diurnally dissipate toward sunset, followed by mostly
clear skies tonight into Monday morning. Winds will initially be
SW with gusts of 25-30kt this afternoon, then will veer to W and
decrease to less than 10kt by around 01z. A weak cold front is
progged to drop southward into central Illinois on Monday. As the
boundary approaches, winds will gradually veer to W/NW toward
midday...then to N/NW during the afternoon.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$