Rockford, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

564
FXUS63 KLOT 162054
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
254 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures through Thursday should melt much of the
  remaining snow cover.

- Rain showers and drizzle will develop late Wednesday night
  with a period of steady rain ahead with a strong cold front
  on Thursday.

- Blustery and briefly colder conditions Thursday night into
  Friday will be followed by variable but generally above normal
  temperatures into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Through Wednesday:

Temperatures overperformed today (upper 30s to around 40F over
the heart of the Chicago metro as of this writing), which will
lead into a milder night tonight, especially relative to recent
nights. A strengthening low-level jet will result in steady to
slowly rising temperatures after any evening dip with southerly
winds occasionally gusting to 20 to 30 mph. A shortwave will
push across the region (also coinciding with the low-level jet
response) this evening and overnight, and still think the sub-
cloud layer will be too dry to support any spotty light precip
being able to reach the surface.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, mostly cloudy skies (mid-high
clouds) in the morning should give way to decreasing afternoon
cloudiness in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. Not
seeing any low clouds of note upstream that would anticipate to
play havoc with temps, so there would need to be post-frontal
stratus development. The model guidance exhibited a cool bias
today even with extensive snow cover going into the afternoon.
Suspect that will be the case tomorrow as well, barring low
clouds limiting warming. Bumped up temps to primarily upper 30s
and lower 40s as a middle ground for now. Considering that the
MOS guidance is warmer than these values, wouldn`t be surprised
if the core of the Chicago metro in particular outperforms our
forecast highs, if post-frontal stratus doesn`t materialize.

Castro

Wednesday Night through Tuesday:

There are no big changes in forecast thinking from Wednesday
night onward.

A deep mid-level trough currently approaching the Pacific
Northwest will track eastward to the western Great Lakes
Wednesday night into Thursday night. A 980 hPa low over western
North Dakota Wednesday evening is progged to gradually weaken
while crossing Lake Superior on Thursday. An elongated 50+ knot
LLJ will spread across the area late Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning, advecting a narrow ribbon of higher low-level
moisture into northern Illinois overnight. Robust low-level
isentropic ascent will promote quick saturation and the
development of drizzle or light rain across much of the area by
sunrise Thursday. While air temps should be several degrees
above freezing before drizzle develops, cannot rule out some
patches of ice on antecedent sub-freezing surfaces. However, air
temps at or above freezing with some sunshine on Wednesday
should limit much of this concern.

Deep moisture aligned with strong height falls and broad mid-
level diffluence will result in a line/band of rain along an
incoming cold front late Thursday morning into early afternoon.
Very strong ascent and marginal lapse rates throughout much of
the column do suggest a non-zero thunderstorm chance across as
least the far southeast CWA. If anything else we`ll have to
watch for a "pop" of winds with or just behind the strongly
forced band of rain.

Behind the front, temps will begin falling during the
afternoon, with stronger CAA lagging several hours until the
main core of colder air arrives early-to-mid evening. Decent
drying should end the precip behind the front, so it`s likely
that precip quickly ends as rain with the frontal passage. Later
in the evening, steepening low-level lapse rates with the
passing core of cold air combined with marginal moisture depth
will likely result in scattered gusty light snow showers or
flurries for several hours (20-40% PoPs northeast 1/2 to 2/3 of
the CWA). Otherwise, expect blustery conditions with post-
frontal W/WNW winds gusting over 30 mph to perhaps briefly up to
40 mph through the evening.

A weakening mid-level ridge and associated surface ridge will
cross the forecast area on Friday. A low-amplitude wave will
then cross the Boundary Waters of Minnesota on Saturday while
keeping any appreciable forcing well north of the area. Mostly
sunny skies and developing WAA on Friday should allow temps to
rise into the mid to upper 20s. However, temps may continue to
rise through the evening as modest WAA persists amid weak low-
level stability and a 50 knot LLJ spreading over the area. There
is a very low chance (10%) that mid-level snow will saturate to
the surface as far south as the Wisconsin state line during the
evening. Similarly, a narrow ribbon of very light rain may
proceed a passing cold front Saturday afternoon. However, dry
conditions are expected through this period. High pressure will
then cross the region on Sunday, with signals that a mid- level
disturbance embedded in strong WNW flow aloft could bring a
brief period of light snow Sunday night into Monday.

Following the seasonably chilly Friday and Friday evening,
temperatures will quickly moderate into the 40s on Saturday
ahead of the next cold front. There will be another brief, less
pronounced cool-down Sunday-Sunday night, with moderating
temperatures heading into Christmas Week. Well above normal
temperatures look quite possible for Christmas Eve and Christmas
Day, so prospects for a white Christmas are low despite the fast
start to winter that we experienced.

Kluber/Castro

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Ceilings and visibilities remain VFR at midday across the terminals
while patchy high cirrus streams through above 20 kft AGL. Winds
will be the main forecast consideration during the afternoon hours,
amidst south-southwesterly flow with sustained speeds between 10 and
15 knots. Boundary-layer depths improve minimally given the influx
of warm low-level air, but the arrival of stronger flow within the
lowest portion of the column should still support gusts to around 25
knots. The surface gradient decreases slightly after sunset, enough
to present LLWS issues for part of the overnight period. Maintained
inherited wind shear timing/heights, supported by latest modeled sub-
2 kft layer wind trends. An axis of additional mid- and high-based
clouds pass through aloft this evening, but ceilings should largely
hold AOA 15 kft for most of tonight. Still monitoring potential for
MVFR/IFR fog/low-status early Wednesday as skies clear out and
surface dewpoints hold close to air temperatures. Added an
introductory ceiling and visibility line (VFR for now) to serve as a
foundational placeholder for the still marginal potential. Light
northwest winds expected Wednesday afternoon with a period of
SKC.

Kacan

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for the IL and
     IN nearshore waters.

&&

$$

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