Peoria, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

412
FXUS63 KILX 231758
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1158 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few weather systems will bring periodic chances for precipitation
  through the weekend, with the first being today as a cold front
  works through the area.

- Patchy fog is possible late this evening into mid Tuesday
  morning. There is a 30-50% chance visibilities fall below 1
  mile.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the end of the week,
  with highs Thursday through the weekend looking to be 10-15
  degrees above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Overall forecast looked on track today and just minor adjustment
with removing the drizzle mention and just going with low chance
pops of light rain showers mainly east of I-55 this afternoon and
lingering in southeast IL this evening. Latest CAMs showing patchy
fog developing over northern IL during this evening and shifting
southward over central IL overnight, and lingering in southeast
IL into mid Tue morning.

Late morning surface map shows weak 1016 mb high pressure over
east central WI with a frontal trof extending sw through se Iowa
into NW MO. Radar mosaic shows patches of very light mixed
precipitation nw of IL while our CWA has mostly been dry so far.
Clouds blanket central/se IL with cloud bases 3-7k ft. Breezy
south winds 12-20 mph with periodic gusts of 20-30 mph has been
warming temps to 38 to 47F at 1030 am, mildest over west central
IL. CAMs bring surface trof southeast into central IL by late
afternoon while a cold front near the IA/MN border pushes into
central IA and nw IL. Some light rain showers are forecast to
develop this afternoon ahead of the surface trof mainly se of I-55
and continue in southeast IL this evening as cold front pushes
into the area. Milder highs today in the low to mid 40s, with
upper 40s to near 50F in west central IL.

07

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

A ~1014 mb surface low over central Iowa early this morning will be
the focus for our weather today as it lifts into the Western Great
Lakes Region. A cold front stretches south from the low with a
steady push of warm air advection filtering into the area. Stratus
clouds with bases between 3-5 k ft have developed as a result,
blanketing areas from I-57 westward as of 3 am. Temperatures have
started to warm from west to east as a result with the freezing line
roughly from Champaign to Shelbyville eastward.

The chance for drizzle/freezing drizzle through this morning has
decreased due to the lack low-level saturation below ~1-1.5 k ft. In
fact, most of the area will probably stay dry today aside from those
east I-55 where the cold front could generate some light rain (20-
30% chance) from late morning into this evening. The front will have
little impact on temperatures today, with highs expected to warm
into the low to middle 40s. The cold front will slowly drop toward
the Ohio Valley overnight with winds becoming light as the pressure
gradient broadens. Moisture will become trapped beneath an inversion
overnight, with the 23.00Z HREF showing a 30-50% chance for fog with
visibilities below 1 mile near/south of I-72 into east-central
Illinois.

The upper pattern will transition from zonal to meridional this week
with an amplified upper ridge expected to develop over the eastern
CONUS by mid to late week. A series of upper systems will track from
the southern Plains into the Midwest states, bringing occasional
chances for rain through the weekend. Mid-level heights will rise
throughout the week as a result allowing temperatures to gradually
warm. In fact, highs Thursday through the weekend look to be a solid
10-15 degrees warmer than normal for late December. The timing of
precipitation could change some between now and then, but a few
distinctive systems look to bring rain later Tuesday into Wednesday,
Thursday night into Friday, and another this weekend. The later week
systems look the most robust and will bring our best shots for
beneficial rainfall.

Temperatures will stay mild to close out the month of December with
outlooks for the beginning to middle of January favoring a swing in
the opposite direction with below normal temperatures.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

High end MVFR to low VFR broken to overcast ceilings of 2.5-4.5k
ft will gradually scatter out from nw to se, starting at PIA and
BMI by mid afternoon and along I-72 late afternoon or early
evening. A broken to overcast batch of MVFR clouds 1-2k ft to
push southward into central IL airports between 07-09Z and lower
to IFR 500-1k ft around daybreak and linger through Tue morning.
Will also see patchy fog with low clouds with mainly MVFR vsbys
overnight into mid Tue morning and possible as low was 1-2 miles.
Breezy SSW to SW winds 10-18 kts with gusts 20-28 kts early this
afternoon to veer west to NW and diminish to 5-10 kts from
23Z-02Z as cold front pushes se into central IL. Light winds
turn NE around 5 kts after 09Z/overnight into Tue morning with
frontal boundary settling into southeast IL. Isolated light rain
showers this afternoon and evening should stay se of the central
IL terminals per latest CAM runs.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$