Oak Park, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

763
FXUS63 KLOT 102012
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
212 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy southwest winds to persist this evening followed by
  another period of northwesterly gusts Monday afternoon.

- Rain chances return late Wednesday through early Thursday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Through Monday Night:

An upper-low continues to lift across WI this afternoon towards
northern MI. While this trajectory places northern IL and
northwest IN firmly within the dry slot, some scattered showers
have materialized near the IL-WI line this afternoon. The
expectation is that as the low continues to pull away that the
waning forcing and limited moisture will dissipate the showers
over the next 2-3 hours. However, partly to mostly cloudy skies
are expected to prevail through this evening along with gusty
west-southwest winds around 25-30 mph. Wind gusts are expected
to diminish this evening and overnight, but forecast soundings
do show the atmosphere remaining mixed which may allow for some
occasional gusts to linger overnight especially over the open
waters of Lake Michigan.

Heading into the day on Monday, a dry cold front is expected to
pivot through the area during the late morning and early
afternoon time frame. In the wake of the front temperatures are
expected to gradually cool through the afternoon but highs
should still top out in the mid to upper 50s. Winds will also
become northwesterly and increase in speeds behind the front
resulting in gusts generally in the 20-25 mph range. Though, a
few higher gusts upwards of 30 mph will be possible near the IL-
WI line. The gusty winds are expected to subside Monday evening
which in combination with mostly clear skies should make for a
chilly night with lows dipping into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
However, some lake effect clouds should hold temperatures closer
to the 40s for areas downstream and near Lake Michigan.

Yack


Tuesday through Sunday:

The upper level pattern looks rather progressive this week. In
the wake of Monday`s dry cold frontal passage, surface high
pressure is expected to expand across the western Great Lakes
region with upper level ridging building overhead. After a cold
start to the morning, Tuesday is forecast to be the coldest day
of the week (albeit still seasonable) with highs around 50.

As the surface high shifts eastward there is a brief window for
southerly warm air advection into the region ahead of an
approaching Pacific originating shortwave Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This feature will bring our next chance of rain
(30-50%), mainly Wednesday evening and overnight. Model guidance
continues to indicate gulf moisture will struggle to lift this
far north. Similar to our most recent round of showers, am not
expecting this to be a big rain-maker either, with amounts
likely remaining under 0.5" for most areas. Upper ridging then
quickly builds back across the region in the wake of the
departing trough with another period of dry and seasonably mild
conditions expected through the end of the week. There is a
signal for another round of rain somewhere in the region early
next week though confidence in the timing and placement remains
low.

Petr

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

The main aviation weather concerns through the 18Z TAF period
include:

* Continued MVFR into this afternoon and potentially beyond

* Gusty WSW winds this afternoon

* Isolated light showers early this afternoon

MVFR cigs hang over the TAF sites early this afternoon. The cigs
are expected to gradually lift north of the terminals during
the afternoon, although there is low confidence in when we`ll
see a return to VFR, and if the VFR conditions will last. The
MVFR may decide to stick around into the evening, especially up
at RFD, before largely scattering out for the night. However,
there are signs that sub-3 kft sct decks may fill in at times
late tonight and into tomorrow morning. Additionally, isolated
pockets of showers are approaching RFD as of around 1730Z. These
showers will hang around INVOF RFD into this afternoon. Some
light rain may move INVOF ORD and DPA as well, although better
chances exist farther north and west.

Meanwhile, SSW are beginning to ramp up late this morning with
25 to, at times, near 30 kt gusts expected out of the SW
during the early-mid afternoon. WSW winds near or just over 10
kt can be expected overnight with NW winds gusting to around 20
kt during the daytime tomorrow.

Doom

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Tuesday for Winthrop
     Harbor IL to Gary IN.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for Gary to Burns
     Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN.

&&

$$

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