Rathdrum, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

387
FXUS66 KOTX 122244
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
344 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms this evening over north-central
  Washington.

- Breezy winds Thursday evening into Friday with elevated fire
  weather conditions.

- Gusty winds Monday into Tuesday with next cold front passage.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated thunderstorms will bring a threat for small hail and
gusty winds across north central Washington through the evening.
Breezy and dry conditions will be in place through Friday with
a subtle decrease in wind speeds Friday afternoon. Lighter winds
and mild temperatures for the upcoming weekend. Warmer next week
with an increasing risk for elevated fire weather conditions
from gusty winds.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight - Friday: There are two main weather impacts for the rest
of today and tomorrow. Breezy winds leading to elevated fire
weather conditions and isolated thunderstorms. The region is
undergoing a pattern change from our hot upper-level ridge to a
cooler trough though the parent trough will never truly come
onshore and more or less sling a few shortwaves through. This
will allow the marine layer to deepen over coastal OR/WA while
moderated warmth remains over the Inland NW. The pressure
gradient between these two air masses will result in breezy to
locally gusty conditions this evening and again on Friday. For
this evening, humidities will remain dry enough such that new
fire starts in the dry grasses could become problematic. The
winds will remain elevated overnight keeping the low level air
mass mixed and temperatures warmer than Thursday morning,
especially from Wenatchee to Palouse. On Friday, the winds will
continue to blow but speeds will be decreasing relative to
Thursday as the air mass cools some and high temperatures cool
another 5 degrees reducing the thermal gradient across the
Cascades. Needless to say, gusts of 20-25 mph will be common
across the open wheat country. Humidity levels will be roughly
5% higher but still dry enough such that dry grasses will be
vulnerable to fire spread, but conditions will not be strong
enough to warrant any fire weather highlights.

As for showers and thunderstorms.  We are getting surface based
convection this afternoon over the mountains along the Canadian
border and just south of the Camas Prairie. Thinking cells will
continue to develop over the northern mountains through this
evening and potentially expand southward into the North Cascades
and Okanogan Highlands as far south as Hwy 20 as a shortwave
currently crossing into the Olympics works eastward. A few cells
could be strong with small hail, heavy downpours, and wind
gusts to 35 mph. This will be monitored closely between
Conconully, Omak, Oroville, and Republic. Around midnight, cam
models are in good agreement of a band of elevated showers
developing in NE Oregon and tracking through SE WA and the Idaho
Panhandle. Not seeing a lot of elevated instability with this
feature for lightning but wouldn`t give it a zero chance.
Probabilities for lightning are closer to 10% or less at this
time. This activity should be lifting into Montana by the Friday
morning commute. On Friday afternoon, surface based convection
will once again develop over the northern mountains and along a
ribbon of instability stretch from NE OR to Mullan, ID. There
are lower probabilities for CAPES supportive of lightning and
forecast mainly comes with a 15% chance for lightning strikes
over far NE WA near the international border.

Saturday-Sunday: The region will remain under southwest flow aloft
sandwiched between a coastal trough and high pressure over the
Central Rockies. Smaller ripples of energy have the potential to
come through sparking a few light showers at times but
generally low threat for thunderstorms or impactful weather as
there looks to be a decent amount of midlevel drying.
Temperatures will warm 1-3 degrees each day each Saturday and
Sunday reaching the 70s to 80s, still 5+ degrees above 30 year
averages for this time of year. Winds will be lighter with more
typical afternoon breezes of 15-20 mph. Nights will be cool with
sheltered northern valleys dipping into the 40s and lower 50s
in the Basin.

Monday-Thursday: A mini warm-up will arrive Monday and Tuesday as
another low digs into the Gulf of AK and higher heights buckle
northward. Temperatures will poke back into the 80s to lower 90s
with 90s more common in the lower Basin and Snake River Valley.
There will not be much in the way of warming west of the
Cascades which implies another period of winds will be on the
horizon and likelihood for elevated fire weather conditions. As
timing stands now, the winds will start off through the Cascade
Gaps starting Monday afternoon and evening then fan out across
the remainder of E WA and N ID Tuesday as the heat breaks down.
There is a 30% chance for wind gusts of 30 mph or stronger on
the Waterville Plateau, Wenatchee Area, and into the foothills
of the Blue Mountains Monday evening which increases to 40-50%
by Tuesday afternoon. Wind gusts 20-30 mph look to be more
common for the remainder of the Palouse, Basin, and foothills on
the northern rim of the Basin as well as the Okanogan Valley.
Tuesday`s winds will also be ushered by a stronger jet and cold
front vs just a thermal gradient and would anticipate the
forecast winds to increase further as confidence increases over
the next few days. Outside some mountain shower and few
thunderstorms, the precipitation outlook through Wednesday looks
meager with the setup very similar to today and most convection
on the outskirts of my forecast area. By Thursday into Friday,
a deep low will reside in the vicinity of the Northwest. Some
models have the feature drift into the PacNW, others keep it
offshore. The positioning of this feature will be key to where
bands of precipitation setup and how cool/warm temperatures
trend. The NBM currently has 20-40% chance for wetting rains
from N Idaho into Northern WA and over the Cascades for the 48
hour period ending Sunday morning. The lower Basin and Wenatchee
Area only come with a 10% chance or less for a region that can
really use some moisture. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Isolated thunderstorms will continue through this
evening along the Canadian border, but are not expected to
impact TAF sites. Breezy west to southwest winds will continue
through the TAF period for KEAT with gusts to 25 kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for
VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        54  77  48  78  52  80 /   0  10   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  77  48  78  51  79 /  10  20  10   0   0  10
Pullman        50  73  44  74  49  77 /   0  20  10   0   0  10
Lewiston       56  82  54  84  57  84 /  10  20  10   0   0  10
Colville       52  76  42  78  44  80 /  20  20  20  20   0  10
Sandpoint      54  76  48  77  47  79 /  10  10  10  10   0  10
Kellogg        54  73  52  75  55  78 /   0  20  20   0   0  10
Moses Lake     56  82  48  82  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  79  52  82  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           52  79  49  82  52  84 /  20  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$