Hayden, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

452
FXUS66 KOTX 160522
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1022 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Valley rain and mountain snow showers through Saturday, with
  moderate accumulations for the Cascade Mountains near the
  crest

- 30 percent chance of thunderstorms Saturday across NE
  Washington and the Idaho Panhandle

- Cooler temperatures will bring a threat of morning frost
  Sunday morning across Northeast Washington and the Methow
  Valley. This would be impactful to any sensitive plants or
  crops.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds and chances for mostly mountain showers and
thunderstorms linger Thursday through Saturday. Some frost is
possible toward Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday: An upper level trough swinging across
the Inland NW will send a fast moving mid level frontal
boundary across Eastern WA/North ID this evening. Not much of
this stratiform rain band will survive east of the Cascades due
to swift mid level downslope westerly flow off the Cascades,
some drier air to overcome in the low levels, and the quick
movement of this front. Yet mid level instability with the
incoming trough combined with increasing lift will lead to an
increase in rain showers as mid-level lapse rates steepen across
the region tonight into Saturday. This will be especially true
along the Cascade crest, Northeast Washington, and the ID
Panhandle where low level upslope flow will provided an added
boost of lower level lift. Snow levels start off around 4000
feet along the Cascade crest, 5500 feet for the ID Panhandle
early this evening, before dropping to 3000-4000 feet Saturday
morning. Stevens Pass is expected to be impacted by periods of
moderate to heavy snow showers with 4-6 inches, with NBM
carrying a 20% chance of amounts exceeding 8 inches. For Lookout
Pass there is a 50 percent chance of 1 inch of snow. Lapse
rates will steepen further Saturday afternoon when daytime
heating kicks in and the upper low moves overhead, with uncapped
surfaced based CAPE of 300-600 K/KG. This is expected to lead
to isolated thunderstorms across the region with brief
downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. A well mixed air mass
and a PDX-GEG pressure gradient around 10 mb will also help
promote breezy winds across the region, especially in Central
Washington with gusts of 25-40 MPH. Temperatures on Saturday
will be well below normal with highs in the 50s to low 60s, with
even some upper 40s in the ID Panhandle. These values are
around 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Saturday Night and Sunday: The low will shift east into NW
Montana Saturday Night. Showers rotating around the back side of
the low will track near the ID Panhandle Saturday Night into
Sunday morning with snow levels as low as 3000-4000 feet. This
could bring more mountain snow to Lookout Pass with a 50 percent
chance of an additional inch. Despite the departing low Sunday,
lapse rates remain steep as lower levels warm, with a 10-20%
chance of thunderstorms over NE WA/ID Panhandle.

Frost potential this weekend: Breezy winds and/or cloud cover
tonight is expected to keep the frost threat low so no
additional highlights have been issued. Yet localized frost is
possible especially around the Methow Valley. Saturday night
cloud cover over SE WA/ID Panhandle may limit the potential
gain, but clearing over NE Washington and winds decoupling is
the most likely area and timing for near freezing temperatures.
More patchy frost is possible for Sunday Night, with broader
clearing leading to broader potential over Eastern WA/N Idaho.

Monday through Thursday: Ensembles show a warming and drying
trend during this part of the forecast. Some weak waves passing
through could produce a few mountain showers at times during the
afternoon/evening hours but otherwise dry conditions are
expected to prevail. High temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday
moderate back towards normal values with readings in the upper
60s and 70s. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: A low pressure system over the region will bring
showers over the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle tonight. Low
stratus or stratocumulus clouds will also be present over the
Idaho Panhandle into extreme eastern Washington into Saturday
morning. This will bring MVFR ceilings to KCOE and KPUW, and
potentially as far west as KSFF and KGEG by 10-14Z. MVFR
conditions will continue until 16-18Z and then ceilings lifting
above 3 kft agl for the afternoon. Westerly winds increase
Saturday morning becoming gusty by the afternoon. Expect wind
gusts of between 20-30 kts. Diurnally forced showers with
isolated thunderstorms is also expected for Saturday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Latest HREF guidance starting around 08z-11z tonight through 18z
Saturday has a 60-90% chance of MVFR conditions developing at
KPUW/KCOE, near 50% for KGEG/KSFF, 10% KLWS, AND 0% KEAT/KMWH.
There is a 40-60% chance for thunderstorms to impact KCOE/KSFF-
KGEG/KPUW by 20Z on Saturday. /SVH

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        39  55  37  61  37  65 /  30  60  20  20  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  51  36  58  37  63 /  50  80  30  30  10  10
Pullman        39  51  35  55  34  61 /  20  70  50  20  10   0
Lewiston       44  57  40  59  39  66 /  20  50  40  30  10  10
Colville       36  57  33  66  32  68 /  30  70  50  10  10  20
Sandpoint      39  49  36  58  36  62 /  50  80  40  40  10  20
Kellogg        36  47  34  55  35  62 /  60 100  50  60  20  30
Moses Lake     42  63  39  69  39  72 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      42  61  42  68  45  71 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           38  60  39  69  41  71 /  20  50  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT
     Saturday for Western Chelan County.
ID...None.

&&

$$