Makakilo, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

823
FXHW60 PHFO 150640
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
840 PM HST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy trade winds will persist into the weekend. A slightly drier
airmass over the islands will bring critical fire weather
conditions to leeward areas Friday. Another band of moisture
being carried in on the trades over the weekend will boost shower
activity once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite derived precipitable water show the drier airmass
spreading across the islands this evening, and extending more than
200 miles upstream of the islands. A lingering band of moisture
over and upstream of the Big Island and Maui will continue to
bring showers to the windward portions of those islands, while the
rest of the state is expected to see limited clouds and showers
through Friday night.

A strong high pressure system to the far north of the islands will
continue to produce strong trade winds over the region into the
weekend. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of the
lower elevations of Maui County and the Big Island through Friday
night. This may need to be extended into Saturday. Elevated winds
on the Big Island Summits are expected to slowly diminish tonight
as expected. The Wind Advisory in effect for the summits is
expected to be allowed to expire by daybreak Friday.

Heading into Saturday, leftover moisture from a front will be
carried in on the trade wind flow, once again increasing the
shower activity around the state. With the trade wind flow, expect
the clouds and showers to be focused over windward and mountain
areas. The GFS and ECMWF models are coming into better agreement
with the handling of an upper level trough moving over the islands
this weekend, which could help to enhance some of the showers
moving over the islands.

By the end of the weekend, the high pressure far north of the
islands will begin to weaken, which will weaken the trades over
the first half of the new week. Drier conditions are once again
expected, with a return to more typical trade wind showers.


&&

.AVIATION...
Strong easterly trade winds will continue through Friday before
decreasing slightly Friday night. Strong trade winds will
periodically deliver showery low cloud cloud clusters over
windward areas. Showers will also spread leeward at times. Expect,
occasional periods of MVFR CIGS/VIS within passing showers.

AIRMET Tango for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind
of the mountains will remain posted until further notice. The
AIRMET Tango for moderate upper-level turbulence has been
cancelled.

No other AIRMETS are currently in effect, although AIRMET Sierra
may need to be updated later tonight for mountain obscuration as
conditions warrant.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong high pressure system north of the islands will remain in
place for the next few days. Strong gusty trade winds are
expected, peaking Friday and Saturday then slowly decreasing into
the new work week a low pressure system weaken the ridge north of
the state. A Gale Warning is in effect through Saturday for the
windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island. A
Small Craft Advisory is also in effect for all remaining coastal
waters for the same time frame. This advisory may need to be
extended into early next week.

The current long period northerly swell will continue to trend
downward through Friday and into the weekend. Some minor bumps are
expected from small reinforcing northwest swells.

Along east facing shores a High Surf Advisory is in effect
through Saturday and may need to be extended into early next week.
Rough and choppy surf is expected through the weekend due to the
strong trade winds. Surf heights will gradually decrease next week
with decreasing wind speeds.

Along south facing shores, expect surf to remain small through the
forecast period.

Peak monthly tides are forecasted from Nov 15th to the 18th. These
high tides combined with elevated seas from strong trade winds and
rising easterly seas, may increase coastal inundation impacts for
vulnerable locations during morning high tides. This has prompted a
Coastal Flood Statement which will be in effect during that
period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A drier airmass will persist over the islands through much of
Friday, which will allow late morning and afternoon relative
humidity values to fall to around 45% or slightly lower. Fuels
remain dry, and when combined with the windy trades that are
expected to continue, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for leeward
areas Friday. There is a low potential for critical fire weather
conditions to continue into early Saturday afternoon, however a
band of showers expected on Saturday should end fire weather
concerns by Saturday evening.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM HST Friday for Niihau-Kauai
South-Kauai Southwest-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-
Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Waianae Mountains-Molokai West-
Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-
Lanai Mauka-Maui Leeward West-Maui Central Valley North-Maui
Central Valley South-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big
Island South-Big Island Southeast-Kohala-Big Island Interior.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Olomana-Maui
Windward West-Kauai East-Koolau Windward-Molokai Southeast-
Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Haleakala-Big Island Southeast-
Big Island East-Big Island North.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-
Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Big Island Interior-
Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Windward-
Lanai Leeward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley
South-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big
Island North.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Big Island
Windward Waters.

Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-Pailolo
Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...M Ballard
AVIATION...Shigesato
MARINE...Bohlin/Walsh