Stonecrest, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

745
FXUS62 KFFC 101915
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
315 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025



...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Key Messages:

 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected through early evening. A
   few storms will be strong, with a severe storm or two possible.

 - Areas of fog expected overnight into early tomorrow (Wednesday)
   morning, especially across central Georgia.

Scattered showers and storms have developed across metro Atlanta
and we have received a report of pea sized hail in the strongest
storm thus far. Localized damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning,
and heavy rainfall will also be hazards in strong storms today.
Storms may cluster together as the afternoon continues (as current
radar trends have begun to suggest) and track/redevelop toward
the southeast in tandem with a slowly sinking stationary front.
Will need to keep an eye on an increasing downburst/straight-line
wind threat as storms move into central Georgia, where SPC
mesoanalysis indicates ~1000 J/kg of DCAPE. Deep layer wind shear
is weak (<20 kts) so not expecting an organized severe weather
event to unfold.

Winds are progged to go light to calm overnight, and given the
soupy airmass in place, expecting that areas of fog will develop
(especially across central Georgia). The longwave trough currently
over the eastern third of the CONUS will shift eastward and
dampen through tonight, giving way to a shortwave ridge over the
Southeast tomorrow. The aforementioned stationary front is progged
to remain draped in the vicinity of the I-20 corridor, so have
maintained chance PoPs (30% to 50%) across central Georgia
tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Similar to today, storms are
expected to remain sub-severe, posing the typical summertime
storm hazards -- gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

Martin


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Key Messages:

  - Moisture levels across Georgia on Monday morning will be at
    least near seasonal normals, trending towards above normal,
    particularly for the Atlanta metro area into central Georgia.

  - Enhanced moisture will continue to pool across Georgia through
    the end of the week, under the influence of southerly flow
    induced by a stalled frontal boundary and a subsequent series
    of lows from over the Midwest.

  - Rain chances will increase through the end of the week and
    weekend.

Moisture levels are forecast to be at least near seasonal normals
on Thursday morning. However, additional moisture is forecast to
be pulled across Georgia in southerly flow. A weak wedge of high
pressure will cede to a frontal boundary stretched along the Gulf
coast, associated with a low over the Labrador Sea as well as a
weaker developing low over Texas, through the day on Thursday,
reinforcing the southerly flow. The GFS suggests that the frontal
boundary will be slightly further north compared to the ECMWF,
resulting in above-normal moisture to start the day. Regardless,
moisture levels are forecast to increase through the end of the
week.

Weak disturbances developing over the Midwest and shifting
eastward, as well as an approaching mid- to upper-level trough
will help maintain the southerly flow over the southeastern US.
There is good model consensus in higher-than-typical moisture
levels, with model guidance indicating precipitable water values
well above the 90th percentile for this time of year starting as
early as Thursday morning or as late as Friday afternoon. This
resultant increase in moisture is expected to fuel a subsequent
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. Increases continue
into the weekend, and the high levels of moisture are maintained
into at least early next workweek. As such, an active weather
pattern is forecast to persist into next week, with PoPs around
65-85% through the weekend.

CRS


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Scattered showers have developed across the metro Atlanta area,
so the PROB30 timing for TSRA from 18z to 22z for the ATL area
sites is in good shape. The PROB30 for AHN and CSG is 19z to 23z
and 21z to 01z at MCN. SCT/BKN MVFR to low-VFR CIGs are expected
through the evening. There is a decently strong signal in model
guidance for FG/BR across CNTRL Georgia overnight with likely
reductions in VIS at MCN and CSG. There is uncertainty regarding
how far north reduced VIS will be realized. Patchy low clouds will
be possible with any FG/BR. Winds will be WNW to WSW today,
becoming light/VRB to calm overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing/coverage of TSRA this afternoon and
evening, as well as extent of reduced VIS/patchy low clouds
overnight. High confidence on all other elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  88  66  88 /  20  10  10  40
Atlanta         67  88  68  89 /  10  10  10  40
Blairsville     57  82  61  84 /   0  10  10  30
Cartersville    62  88  65  89 /  10  10  10  30
Columbus        69  88  69  90 /  30  30  20  50
Gainesville     64  86  66  87 /  10  10  10  30
Macon           68  89  68  89 /  30  40  20  60
Rome            62  89  65  89 /   0  10   0  20
Peachtree City  65  88  66  89 /  10  20  10  40
Vidalia         71  89  70  90 /  30  60  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....CRS
AVIATION...Martin