Stonecrest, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

672
FXUS62 KFFC 231930
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
230 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024



...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

500 mb analysis reveals weak ridging over Georgia this afternoon.
Visible satellite imagery shows a cloudless sky over the majority
of the forecast area, as well as an area of low pressure swirling
well off the east coast of Florida with a feed of low-level
clouds spreading into the southeast portion of the forecast area.
Light stratiform rain associated with this feature will be
possible (15% to 20% chance) across this area overnight as a weak
disturbance is progged to move through aloft. There is a
possibility that light frozen precip could mix with the rain, but
no impacts are expected if this occurs. Rainfall amounts will be
scarce -- only a hundredth of an inch or so. Overnight/early
Tuesday morning lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

The airmass in place across much of the Southeast will warm
tomorrow (Tuesday) given a steady-as-she-goes forecast of quasi-
zonal flow aloft, high pressure at the surface, and a clear sky.
Highs are expected to be in the mid-50s to lower 60s -- some 5-10
degrees warmer than today.

Martin


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

Generally cloudy conditions through the weekend. Wedge
development begins on Wednesday as a sfc high across the east
coast brings low level E flow. The main deterministic factor for
the coming days will be mid level flow determined by a series of
shortwaves amplifying the polar trough. Models have diminished SW
mid level flow over recent runs, decreasing moisture upglide. This
has reduced PoPs further and pushed the greatest chance of PoPs
to the weekend. That said, conditions will likely become
increasingly dreary as we move through the week with some light
showers Wednesday night and Friday. Light drizzle may be possible
during the day on Thursday, however this will be highly dependent
on the amount of dry air within the CAD. QPF through Friday
remains below 0.25". An incoming cold front through the weekend
will help to increase precipitation efficiency. Ensemble guidance
for the weekend rainfall currently sits at around 1" for the 50th
percentile and 2-2.5" for 90th percentile.

Temperatures through the long term will be slightly above normal,
even with the wedge. Highs by Friday will be in the mid 50s to
even mid 60s. The coolest temps will be closer to the beginning of
the week with Wednesday lows near 40. Overnight temperatures
increase through the week to the 40s and 50s.

SM


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. FEW/SCT
clouds at 030-040 are expected at MCN later this afternoon and
overnight. FEW040 is also possible at CSG overnight. SKC is
expected at the rest of the TAF sites. Winds will be E to ENE at
5-10 kts for the rest of the day, becoming light/VRB to calm
overnight. A wind shift to NNW is expected tomorrow (Tuesday)
morning to early afternoon, but winds are progged to be light
(<4 kts) so timing is uncertain.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing of wind shift.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          27  57  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         30  57  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     25  55  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    27  56  33  58 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        33  61  36  62 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     29  57  35  55 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           32  59  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            27  56  32  58 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  27  58  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         39  62  36  63 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Martin