Stonecrest, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

466
FXUS62 KFFC 271913
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
313 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Key Messages:

    - Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
      thunderstorms will be the primary concern.

    - Temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal averages.


Current radar loop shows some isolated thunderstorms beginning to
develop over east central GA and east central AL. Like yesterday,
convection is taking a bit longer get started because the area was
so worked over from yesterdays activity (Kind of a recurring theme).
Ample instability is again developing across the area with MLCAPE
values on the order of 1000-2500 J/kg and ML Lapse Rates around 6 to
6.5. This will be be sufficient support for at least a few severe
thunderstorms with a primary risk for strong downburst wind gusts as
well as a few instances of hail up to size of dime to quarter size.
Any storms that develop could persist into the late evening.

On Sat, little change in the overall pattern and environment is
expected. With the area remaining in southwest flow around the
periphery of the western Atlantic high, diurnally driven convection
is again expected. Also, strong to severe isolated  thunderstorms
will again be possible.

As for temperatures, forecast highs Friday should be a degree to two
below Todays highs for most of the area. It will still be hot with
heat index values peaking in the 95 to 100 range for portions
of north and central GA.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Key Messages:

  - Very moist forecast, with diurnally driven convection every day.

  - Severe not anticipated at this time, but some uncertainty.

Forecast:

Few overall changes to the forecast this afternoon for the long
term. Next week still looks to be pretty moist with copious chances
for diurnally driven afternoon convection. The upper level low over
the Southeast currently continues to spin in place and fill through
the weekend, providing continued lift. Repeated rounds of convection
through the weekend will do a number on lapse rates, which should
limit the overall severe threat Sunday into Monday, but with
plenty of moisture around and summer heating, can`t rule out a
storm or two getting a little bit feisty. Ensembles have pretty
good consensus through this time period, though one potential
"gotcha" for the models will be recovery of the atmosphere from
day to day, where a particularly robust day of convection may act
to limit things a bit more on the next day, especially given the
lack of upper level winds to advect latent heating due to
convection.

Today into Saturday, we will see the TUTT positioned out over the
Atlantic undergo a pretty big squeeze thanks to anticyclonic rossby
wave breaks occurring upstream of it. This will pinch off another
upper level piece of the PV streamer that will develop into a
cyclonically spinning upper level low that will retrograde towards
the SE coastline by Monday. This system creates a point of
uncertainty (and least with today`s runs) within the ensembles,
with the Euro suite being a bit more aggressive with pulling it
into the SE, and the GFS suite keeping it to the east off the
coastline. By Tuesday, a shortwave will move within the upper
level jet across the US/Canadian border and drive a quick moving
surface low that will drive a front towards the area on Tuesday
into Wednesday that should stall before reaching the CWA. This
system will bring moisture streaming into the area causing rain
chances on Tuesday to increase even more than the previous days.
Severe chances may be dependent on the position of the
aforementioned upper level low - if it has moved over the area, it
will not only aid in lift, but may bring some enhanced lapse
rates through cooling aloft. Will need to keep an eye on this time
period.

Otherwise, temperatures will likely be modulated through the
longterm by copious surface moisture and afternoon convection/cloud
cover. Highs start in the low 90s and sink into the 80s by the
middle of next week. High Td`s hovering in the 70s will keep
overnight lows elevated to the lower 70s.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Mainly VFR conditions across the area but looking for convection
to get going in the next few hours around the TAF sites. Should
see another round of SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and evening with the
best chance for the TAF sites happening between 21z-01z (give or
take an hour or two). Winds should stay mainly out of the W-NW in
the 5-10kt range but will see some gusty winds to 30kt in and
around any convective activity. VSBYs expected to stay in the VFR
range but like the winds could see some MVFR VSBYs in and around
the afternoon and evening storms. Things expected to clear out
overnight with another round of storms Sat afternoon/evening.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  92  70  92 /  30  50  20  30
Atlanta         71  91  71  90 /  30  50  20  40
Blairsville     64  85  65  86 /  40  60  20  60
Cartersville    68  91  70  90 /  30  50  20  50
Columbus        71  92  72  92 /  20  50  20  50
Gainesville     70  90  70  90 /  30  50  20  40
Macon           71  92  70  92 /  30  50  20  50
Rome            69  90  70  89 /  30  50  20  50
Peachtree City  68  91  69  90 /  30  50  20  40
Vidalia         72  92  73  92 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...01