Evans, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

759
FXUS62 KCAE 232336
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
636 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure sliding to our north today is bringing
below normal highs this afternoon and lows tonight. A weak
coastal low brings a chance of precipitation to the region
tonight into Tuesday morning, especially across the eastern
Midlands. More seasonal temperatures follow for the mid to late
week period, with increasing chances of rain towards the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Below normal temperatures continue.
- A coastal low brings the potential for rain showers, mainly
  across the eastern Midlands tonight into Tuesday morning.
- Low chance for a period of freezing rain early Tuesday
  morning, mainly across portions of the northern Midlands.

Surface high pressure remains in control over the eastern
seaboard this afternoon, keeping the area dry with mainly clear
skies for the time being. An upper shortwave currently over the
Deep South is helping to form a coastal low. Satellite imagery
shows this low is developing off the coast of Florida. The upper
shortwave is expected to translate east, flattening as it does.
However, this feature is forecast to allow the coastal low to
continue developing as it moves northward along the coast.
The latest guidance has shifted the track of this low further
east, which also has shifted the chances for rainfall further
east as well. That said, was not completely comfortable with
significantly reducing PoPs just yet, but have scaled back some
and shifted the western edge eastward a bit to account for this
latest shift. It appears there will be a sharp cutoff in cloud
cover associated with this system as well, so there will likely
be a sharp gradient in low temps overnight due to this. Where
there are clouds, temperatures are likely to be several degrees
warmer than last night, but locations that remain clear are
likely to see much colder temps albeit slightly warmer than last
night.

The trickiest part of the forecast remains to be the potential
for some light freezing rain across portions of the northern
Midlands late tonight into early Tuesday. Confidence has
decreased in the potential for this freezing rain, but keeping a
slight chance going for the time being. With the eastward trend
in precipitation field, it might not reach far enough west to
get to the coldest temperatures that would cause freezing rain
to occur. Should freezing rain occur, it is expected to be light
and fall around sunrise. So, impacts are not anticipated to be
widespread or long lasting. That said, be sure to use caution
while driving or walking if the freezing rain does fall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Any precipitation comes to an end Tuesday morning, followed
  by clearing skies from west to east.

- A return to more seasonal temperatures is expected for
  Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Christmas Eve: The coastal low will pass off the Carolina coast,
with any precipitation ending from west to east during the
morning hours. Skies will gradually clear out as the system
moves away from the FA. Daytime temperatures will be closer to
seasonal values with highs in the lower to mid 50s, coolest in
the eastern Midlands, where it will clear out last. Clear skies
and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower
to mid 30s at night.

Christmas Day: Strong high pressure settles in over southern
Quebec, extending south into the FA. This will maintain a cool,
dry air mass over our region. Sunny to mostly sunny skies will
allow daytime temperatures to return to near normal values with
highs in the mid to upper 50s northern Midlands and upper 50s
to around 60 degrees in the southern Midlands and CSRA. A weak
shortwave and associated surface front will approach at night,
resulting in increasing cloudiness but the probability of
measurable precipitation remains very low, less than 10
percent, with the best chance in the CSRA. The clouds will limit
cooling at night with forecast lows in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry with near average temperatures for Thursday and Friday.

- Slightly warmer this weekend with increasing rain chances.

The aforementioned surface high over Quebec is expected to be
the primary driver of our weather through Friday. Northeasterly
flow will result in dry conditions with the probability of
measurable precipitation on Thursday and Friday under 10
percent. Daytime temperatures will be near normal values with
warming temperatures each night.

Confidence in the large scale pattern this weekend remains low
but current thinking is that temperatures and moisture will
increase on Saturday ahead of a storm system to our west. Rain
chances are highest Saturday night into Sunday, when an upper
trough and attendant cold front are slated to move through the
region, but again the exact timing is uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period with low
confidence in MVFR conditions possible late tonight into Tuesday
morning.

Weak and disorganized low pressure continues to slowly develop
off the east coast of FL with cloudiness beginning to move into
AGS/DNl/OGB. The low will quickly move northward overnight and
by midday Tuesday be off the central SC coast and away from the
region. Concern overnight will be potential for MVFR cigs as
moisture moves into the area. Highest potential for MVFR cigs
and light rain will be in OGB with lower potential at the
remaining terminals. Have included VCSH for OGB as confidence is
increasing in rain across the area however confidence in
coverage remains low. Low clouds will quickly move out of the
area Tuesday morning with the remainder of the period VFR. Winds
will veer from currently northeasterly to northerly overnight
with speeds of 6 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain showers and associated
restrictions will be possible Friday night and Saturday as the
next low pressure system moves into the eastern US.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$