Dunwoody, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

339
FXUS62 KFFC 021045 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
645 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

 - Well above average to potentially record-breaking temperatures
   expected through the weekend.

 - More substantial shower and thunderstorm chances return late
   this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows a mix of mid-level
and upper-level clouds across much of the CWA, along with a
defined marine layer pushing inland from the Atlantic and Gulf.
This air mass is pushing into the southeast portion of the CWA and
will push in from the due south across the rest of our southern
counties over the next couple of hours. This air mass is
characterized by 200- to 400-foot cloud ceilings as well as areas
of fog (some dense -- less than one-quarter mile visibility). At
this time, expect that fog will remain south of Atlanta. This
marine layer -- as well as the aforementioned mid-level clouds --
will gradually erode from south to north later this morning into
the early afternoon. The slow scattering-out of cloud cover may
hamper shower and storm development this afternoon, especially
across northeast Georgia, where clouds will linger longest.
Temperatures may only reach the mid-60s to lower 70s across
northeast Georgia as a result, while the rest of the CWA will have
high temps generally in the 80s.

Regarding the potential for showers and storms today, isolated to
scattered coverage is expected at most. If enough clearing
occurs, MUCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg is likely, which could support
some strong updrafts. That said, HREF-progged surface to 500 mb
bulk shear is 30 kts at most, mainly over far north Georgia. Mid-
level lapse rates are progged to reach 6.5-7.0 C/km at most,
though hi-res model forecast soundings do show DCAPE as high as
~900 J/kg. Putting these ingredients together, a storm or two
could be strong (possibly severe) with localized gusty to damaging
wind gusts. Expect to see showers and storms develop along
differential heating boundaries as cloud cover clears, generally
across the eastern half or so of the CWA. Activity will wane after
sunset with overnight/early Thursday morning low temps in the 60s.

Today will breezy, if not gusty, across much of the CWA as fairly
strong southwesterly flow moves in aloft over north and west
Georgia. Across the western half or so of the CWA, sustained winds
are forecast to be 10-15 mph and gusts will be 20-30 mph.
Sustained winds around 20 mph and gusts greater than 30 mph can be
expected in the mountains. Aside from mountain ridgelines, winds
and gusts are not expected to reach Wind Advisory criteria, but
the day shift will need to keep an eye on observations.

North and central Georgia will remain under the influence of a
relatively benign weather pattern tomorrow (Thursday). Like today,
mid-level lapse rates look overall unimpressive and HREF mean
MUCAPE is 500-1500 J/kg. The current expectation is that isolated
showers and storms will be possible across parts of north Georgia,
where 30-40 kts of surface to 500 mb bulk shear will be present.
Temps will peak in the 80s across most of the CWA with highs right
at 90 across parts of central Georgia.

Martin


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 421 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Heat remains the main story through most of the weekend. A
strong, for this time of year, ridge over the Caribbean and
Western Atlantic will drive 500 mb heights 3 to 4 standard
deviations above normal for this time of year. Surprisingly, with
higher res models coming into focus has increased uncertainty in
the strength of the heat over the weekend. With some deeper
digging, this could be due to several important factors. 1st, is
the hi-res models` ability to realize the large ridge within the
domain space (The size and location of the ridge may stretch
outside of the domain and cause issues there). 2nd, Models are
depicting large variations in the extent of cloud cover from
southwest flow to the west of the CWA. 3rd, there is some question
as to upstream conditions for near surface flow. The hottest
running models all seem to be pulling air across most of the
Florida Peninsula while some of the cooler bring the sfc high far
enough westward to bring air north from the Gulf. What this means
for us is model high temperature spread over the ATL metro of up
to 10 degrees (mostly on Sunday with incoming precip). Given the
potential to challenge record max temps at all climate sites, the
question becomes what is more likely. At this time, will continue
to lean toward the mean NBM outcome rather than just the
deterministic NBM.

For shower and thunderstorms, our next real chance comes back in
the Sunday and Monday timeframe with a robust trough moving across
the CONUS helping to move the ridge along. Much cooler
temperatures are likely behind the front with highs falling back
to the 60s by the first half of next week.

SM


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Expect that current MVFR cigs at ATL and the other metro sites
will give way to IFR cigs within an hour or two of 13z as the
marine layer from the Atlantic and Gulf surges northward. FG/BR
associated with this air mass is expected to stay south of the
northern TAF sites, impacting MCN and CSG. Clouds are progged to
lift to MVFR by 16z-17z, then give way to FEW/SCT Cu this
afternoon. A stray shower or storm at ATL can`t be ruled out this
afternoon/early evening, but the potential is too low for
inclusion in the TAF (~15% chance at most). Winds will be SE to
SSE at 8-13 kts with gusts up to ~23 kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements except for winds.

Martin


&&


.CLIMATE...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025


Records for 04-02

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      89 1940     46 1915     62 1927     28 1924
   KATL      88 1940     42 1915     64 2012     25 1881
   KCSG      89 2017     50 1931     68 1927     34 1992
                1927                                1961
   KMCN      88 1940     48 1915     64 2012     30 2021
                1935



Records for 04-03

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      88 1934     47 1987     62 2007     26 1992
                                        1974
   KATL      87 2012     39 1987     65 1974     29 1992
   KCSG      89 1945     50 1915     70 1977     32 1962
   KMCN      89 2012     51 1901     69 1977     30 2021
                1957



Records for 04-04

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      89 1934     47 2013     66 1999     29 1915
                            1987
   KATL      85 1969     47 2013     66 1880     30 1987
                            1987                    1936
                                                    1891
   KCSG      89 1934     52 2013     65 2012     33 1987
                1918
   KMCN      88 1969     50 2013     69 1977     31 1992
                1954
                1934



Records for 04-05

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      88 2010     47 1964     62 1969     29 1944
                                                    1891
   KATL      89 1988     36 1891     66 1880     28 1881
   KCSG      91 1934     58 1962     65 1969     34 1987
   KMCN      91 1988     53 1944     63 2023     32 2000
                                        1969
                                        1922


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          78  64  85  64 /  30  30  20   0
Atlanta         83  66  86  66 /  20  10  10   0
Blairsville     69  60  79  60 /  30  30  30  10
Cartersville    83  64  88  64 /  20  10  10   0
Columbus        87  65  89  64 /  10  10   0   0
Gainesville     73  64  84  64 /  30  30  20   0
Macon           86  66  89  64 /  20  10   0   0
Rome            85  64  88  64 /  20  10  10   0
Peachtree City  84  64  87  63 /  10  10  10   0
Vidalia         86  67  90  67 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ074>076-
078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Martin