Dalton, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

035
FXUS62 KFFC 130533
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1233 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

A drier airmass will continue across the state today and tonight
but a frontal system developing over the front range and a wave
over the northern gulf will push into Western GA Wed night.

Surface high pressure currently centered over the central Great
Lakes will slide eastward into the New England states by Wed
morning/afternoon. A CAD wedge will build southwestward into the
area tonight from this ridge with breezy easterly winds increasing
through daybreak Wed. These easterly winds will usher in a
noticeably cooler airmass with highs mainly in the 60s Wed vs the
Middle to upper 70s were seeing Today. Wed morning lows will also
be mainly in the 40s to near 50. This wedge will act as a block
for the incoming frontal boundary and slow its progress eastward
down but it will not be strong enough to keep it from entering the
region Wed evening. There is also a weak wave developing across
he northern gulf that gets caught in the northerly flow around the
wedge and moves onshore the MS/LA gulf coast tonight. Cloud cover
will increase Wednesday morning/afternoon from west to east in
advance of these two systems. The wave that pushed onshore the
gulf coast wrapped up the the approaching frontal boundary Wed
morning and they will both push precipitation to the West GA late
Wed afternoon. The bulk of precipitation will hold off until
Wednesday night/Thu morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 213 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

Rainfall Wednesday Night & Thursday:

Warm moist air from the Gulf, ahead of an approaching upper level
trough, will overspread the wedge Wednesday night. This will lead
to increasing rainfall coverage in Georgia. Rain chances will
linger into the daylight hours on Thursday before the passage of
the upper level trough axis and a push of dry air above 700 mb
shuts them down Thursday afternoon. Forecast precipitation with
this event remains largely unchanged with the latest update. We
continue to anticipated the best odds for half an inch of rainfall
or more along and north of Interstate 20. Probabilities of an
inch of rainfall remain highest in northwest Georgia where the 100
GEFS, EPS and GEPS members give it a 40% chance of occurrence.
For Atlanta the odds of and inch of rain are hovering around 10%
(a slight drop since yesterday). Due to these modest rainfall
totals flooding shouldn`t be a significant concern with this
event. Cool air at the surface and a warm nose above 700 mb should
significantly limit any instability. Thus while an isolated
thunderstorm is possible near Columbus, the odds of seeing a storm
with this event are very low (< 10% for any given location).
Severe weather is not expected.

Due to rainfall early in the day and lingering low cloud cover
Thursday afternoon, Thursday should be the coolest day this week.
This should be especially true in northeast Georgia where
afternoon highs are forecast to be 6 to 12 degrees below seasonal
averages. This translates to widespread highs in the 50s.

Friday through Tuesday:

Quite weather should prevail during this period thanks to the
subsidence induced by a building upper level ridge. The GEFS, EPS
and GEPS members show very little spread in the temperature
forecast during and thus forecast confidence in a warming trends
is very high. Widespread 60s on Saturday should turn into
widespread 70s by Monday. Dry weather should also prevail making
for a very pleasant fall weekend.

Uncertainty for the Middle of Next Week:

The forecast gets more interesting and more uncertain during this
period. It appears as though we will need to be monitoring the
Gulf where the next tropical cyclone may develop. The current
model consensus favors Florida for the greatest risk of tropical
impacts, but there are outliers among the ensemble members that
bring a system into Georgia. The track of any cyclone will depend
on the strength of a ridge along the East Coast and the
development of a closed low in the Central Plains.

Regarding the closed low in the Plains, a fair amount of
variation exists amongst the ensemble members regarding its
intensity and impacts for Georgia. However models are confidence
it will happen, and there is some agreement in the latest model
runs that allows us to forecast a couple of things with
confidence. A shift towards cooler weather is likely after next
Tuesday. This is the aspect of the outlook we are most confident
in. Rainfall may also return with a majority of GEFS and EPS
members producing accumulating precipitation between Wednesday and
Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the onset of the period with mostly
clear skies, though some cigs in the 3.5 kft to 12 kft range are
possible at MCN/CSG through 12Z. While more abundant high and
midlevel clouds will increase through the day, lower cigs will
begin increasing after 02Z with MVFR cigs likely by 05-06Z Thurs
and IFR cigs more probable after 10Z Thurs. Widespread -SHRA will
increase from W to E, mainly after 03-06Z. Winds will remain E at
speeds of 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts likely after 12-14Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on MVFR/IFR cig timing.
High confidence on all else.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          46  52  43  65 /  70  80   0   0
Atlanta         49  56  47  64 /  80  90   0   0
Blairsville     40  52  40  62 /  90  90   0   0
Cartersville    48  57  44  64 /  90  80   0   0
Columbus        57  67  49  69 /  70  70   0   0
Gainesville     46  51  44  65 /  90  90   0   0
Macon           53  62  47  68 /  50  60   0   0
Rome            49  60  43  64 / 100  70   0   0
Peachtree City  49  59  44  64 /  80  80   0   0
Vidalia         55  68  52  68 /  30  50   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...RW