Chamblee, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

254
FXUS62 KFFC 111910
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
310 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Key Messages:

 - Isolated showers and storms are expected generally along and
   south of the I-20 corridor this afternoon and evening. No
   severe storms are expected.

 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected tomorrow
   (Thursday). Again, no severe storms expected.

A diffuse boundary is situated roughly along the I-20 corridor
this afternoon. South of this boundary, dew points are in the 70s
and to the north, dew points are in the 60s. Showers and storms
will likely develop along and south of this boundary, with the 12z
runs of the CAMs keeping convection very isolated. Weak ridging
in the mid-/upper-levels suggests warm temperatures aloft, and
thus poor mid-level lapse rates and something of a cap. As a
result, not expecting a hail threat today. Any storms that do form
could produce gusty winds (up to around 40 mph) as DCAPE is
progged to peak around 1000 J/kg (similar to the environment
yesterday). Deep-layer wind shear is weak (less than 20 kts) so
not expecting upscale growth of storms. Boundary layer winds are
largely parallel to the aforementioned surface boundary, so this
weak front will not have much (if any) movement today.

Clusters of showers and storms currently pushing inland from the
Gulf over the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama may
continue northward through the evening and impact portions of
central Georgia. The same goes for a sea breeze front moving
inland over coastal Georgia from the Atlantic. Patchy fog could
develop again overnight with some isolated locales experiencing
dense fog, especially where rainfall occurs this evening.

Mid-/upper-level flow will become southwesterly tomorrow with an
approaching shortwave trough, increasing moisture advection from
the tropics (with the help of flow around the Bermuda High setting
up). The SREF mean PWAT values surge to 1.8-2.2 inches tomorrow.
A similar environment to today looks to be in place tomorrow, so
expecting typical summer-esque thunderstorms with gusty to
localized damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy
rainfall. Surface-based instability will be plentiful but the
moist environment will limit mid-level lapse rates and instability
through the atmospheric column. Total rainfall over the next 24
hours will range from 0.10" to 0.75". Any strong storms may
produce 1" or greater of rain, so localized nuisance flooding and
ponding of low-lying/poor drainage areas will be possible.

Martin


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Key Messages:

  - Typical June afternoon/evening thunderstorms expected every
    day. No organized severe weather expected, but can`t rule out
    a very isolated severe storm on any given day.

  - High temperatures will be average, with lows remaining 5-10
    degrees above average thanks to copious moisture sticking
    around.

Forecast:

A classic June summer pattern looks to settle in over the SE
through the middle of next week, bringing diurnally driven
convection chances to the CWA daily as moisture surges back into
the area. A relatively weak upper level low will find itself
cutoff over the southern Great Plains by Friday and will slowly
spin its way to the NE over the next few days. This in combination
with high pressure off the southeast Atlantic coast will bring
southerly flow that will drive plenty of moisture from the Gulf
into the area. This pattern should remain locked in place through
the rest of the longterm as the upper level jet remains well
removed to the north. Average PWATs across the entire long term
period are in the 1.7-2.0" range within the ensemble guidance,
highlighting the deep moisture in place across all the guidance.
PoPs reflect the diurnal nature of the convection - low morning
PoPs, followed by 60-70% chances during the afternoon to evening
hours, falling overnight. QPF probabilities show the scattered
nature as well, with probability of seeing greater than 1.0" of
rain over a 24 hour period a smooth 10-30% within various ensemble
probabilistic output.

With rain chances and cloud cover each day, temperatures will be
fairly average for mid June, with highs in the mid 80s to lower
90s each day. Expect fluctuations from that based on which
locations receive rainfall on any given day. Overnight lows
represent the high dewpoints that will be in place, only able to
fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Patchy fog may happen,
especially on nights where cloud cover clears.

Lusk


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Generally SCT/BKN low-VFR clouds expected through early this
evening. Have PROB30s at MCN and CSG for -TSRA until 00z. Chances
of SH/TS are too low at the ATL area sites and AHN for PROB30s,
but do have VCSH in the TAFs. Winds are currently light and/or VRB
in direction, and will go generally light to calm overnight.
Areas of low clouds and BR may develop overnight into early
tomorrow (Thursday) morning. For now, have a SCT deck at 1.5 kft
under a BKN deck at 5 kft at all sites starting at 10z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on coverage of SH/TS this afternoon/evening and
low clouds/mist overnight/early tomorrow morning. High confidence
on all other elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  85  68  86 /  10  80  50  70
Atlanta         70  86  70  87 /  10  70  40  70
Blairsville     61  81  63  82 /   0  70  40  80
Cartersville    66  87  68  87 /  10  60  30  70
Columbus        70  89  70  90 /  30  70  40  70
Gainesville     68  84  69  85 /  10  70  40  70
Macon           70  89  70  88 /  30  80  50  80
Rome            66  88  68  87 /   0  60  30  70
Peachtree City  68  87  68  87 /  20  70  40  70
Vidalia         71  89  72  89 /  30  80  50  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Martin