Atlanta, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

380
FXUS62 KFFC 250633
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
233 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

A loosely organized convective complex is sinking southward
across the Lower MS River Valley and TN River Valley this
afternoon, associated with a series of disturbances in the 500 mb
flow. A mix of mid-/upper-level clouds is in place across north
Georgia and portions of central Georgia, with rain occurring
across northwest and north-central Georgia. This has resulted in a
fairly stable environment roughly along and north of I-20. An
outflow boundary from the aforementioned rain is pushing
southeastward and could be an impetus for convection across
central Georgia later this afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates across
central Georgia are 6.5-7.0 C/km and DCAPE ranges from 800-1000
J/kg, so a few strong to severe storms with gusty to damaging
winds and hail will be possible. SPC has the majority of the CWA
outlooked in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms.

Another cluster of showers and storms is progged to push through
overnight into early tomorrow (Sunday) morning, although the CAMs
remain somewhat in disagreement on the timing and evolution of
this feature. The HREF suggests that up to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
will be in place overnight and 1.4" to 1.6" of PWAT suggests the
potential for heavy rainfall with any strong storms. Near-surface
soil moisture is relatively high generally along and north of the
Fall Line (which runs from Columbus to Augusta and is where the
hilly Piedmont region gives way to the Coastal Plain region) so
localized nuisance flooding and ponding of low-lying and/or poor
drainage areas will be possible.

This general pattern of disturbed quasi-zonal/somewhat
northwesterly mid-/upper-level flow will persist tomorrow.
Moisture will be abundant, so development of showers and storms
is likely during daytime heating, but coverage of morning cloud
cover and lingering showers and storms from the overnight activity
may delay afternoon convection. Will need to monitor differential
heating along cloud deck boundaries as places where convection
will initiate. Once deep convection does commence, the environment
will be supportive of gusty to damaging winds, hail, and locally
heavy rainfall. Convection should remain more isolated to
scattered in nature -- rather than growing upscale into clusters
or an MCS -- as the SREF is progging more robust shortwave ridging
without any notable embedded disturbances. SPC currently has the
entire CWA outlooked in a Marginal Risk with a Slight Risk (level
2 out of 5) across Alabama, up against the Georgia border.

Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Key Messages

    - An unsettled forecast with elevated rain chances will linger
      across the area through the long-term forecast period.

    - A CAD wedge will provide cooler temperatures to north
      Georgia Monday night into Tuesday.

    - Locally heavy rainfall is possible with abundant moisture in
      place.

Multiple opportunities for rainfall will persist through the
long-term period as the forecast area will remain in an active
weather pattern. At the start of the forecast period on Monday, a
CAD wedge will be knocking on our door as surface high pressure
builds into the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, southwest flow aloft will
provide overrunning moisture and in turn likely high coverage of
showers and embedded thunderstorms through the day on Memorial Day.

The surface CAD wedge will persist across north Georgia through
Tuesday, bringing dreary, cloudy, and substantially cooler
conditions for the typical wedge zone across northeast Georgia.
Highs will be held well below normal in these areas, perhaps not
getting out of the upper 60s to low 70s for a number of locations,
while Middle Georgia will see more summerlike conditions in the
80s to low 90s. An additional shortwave disturbance in the west-
southwest flow aloft will bring continued focus for widespread
rainfall on Tuesday. The influence of the cool, stable wedge
should shunt any strong/severe threat farther southward into
Middle Georgia.

The surface wedge erodes by Wednesday, and rain chances look to
remain elevated as shortwaves continue to provide focus for
showers and thunderstorms each day through late week. The threat
for strong/severe thunderstorms will need to be monitored, but it
remains far too early to address any specifics regarding any
potential threats. Additionally, abundant Gulf moisture providing
PWATs well above normal could lead to locally heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding concerns through the week.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025

Current radar loop shows some scattered showers around the ATL and
AHN area TAF sites. these showers should diminish and move east
of the area over the next few hours. Will have a bit of a break
in the expected precip from shortly before sunrise to later this
afternoon when the next wave moves into the area. Ceilings will be
mainly in the VFR range but expecting some brief periods of MVFR
ceilings in and around any showers and afternoon thunderstorms.
Winds are out of the east and expecting them to turn to the SE and
eventually SW/W. Wind speeds will stay 10kt or less through the
period.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on precip and ceiling heights.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          79  64  78  60 /  50  40  60  70
Atlanta         83  67  83  64 /  60  50  70  80
Blairsville     74  60  75  56 /  70  70  80  80
Cartersville    83  64  83  62 /  70  60  70  80
Columbus        90  69  90  69 /  30  40  60  60
Gainesville     77  65  77  60 /  60  60  70  80
Macon           88  68  88  66 /  40  30  70  60
Rome            82  65  83  63 /  70  60  70  80
Peachtree City  85  65  85  64 /  60  40  70  80
Vidalia         90  70  89  69 /  50  40  70  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...01