Tallahassee, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

472
FXUS62 KTAE 022313
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
713 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Afternoon convection is currently firing up over southeast
Georgia. Development could extend as far west as I-75 in south
Georgia through sunset. Downdraft CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg
exists in this part of Georgia. Given that aspect and the
generally breezy southerly flow, storms will be capable of
thunderstorm outflow wind gusts to near 50 mph until after sunset.

Otherwise, the muggy air mass will support some fog development
tonight. The gusty wind fields could help keep some of it stirred
into a low stratus, as opposed to fog. Nonetheless, northeast Gulf
water temperatures are still in the 67-71 degree range, so areas
of sea fog are possible near the coast late tonight and Thursday
morning.

A similarly warm or hot afternoon as today is expected on
Thursday, with the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor most likely
to reach or exceed 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Little sensible change is expected in the weather compared with
tonight and Thursday. A very strong 500 mb high will be centered
over the Atlantic east of the Georgia Bight. 500 mb heights in
excess of 5900 meters will extend west across the service area,
keeping conditions capped with temperatures running well above
normal. Friday should overall be the hottest day of the week, with
90+ degree reading fairly common over inland areas.

Southerly breezes will continue, with strong afternoon seabreezes
at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A highly amplified upper trough will pass across the central U.S.
this weekend, as a potent southern stream trough phases with a
northern stream upper trough. This will push sharp and strong
spring cold front across the region on Sunday night and Monday.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will precede the front,
and SPC has already placed our region in their Day 5 outlook.
Indeed, ensemble data shows weak convective instability in the
pre-frontal environment, with somewhat strong bulk shear of about
40-50 knots. With the incoming upper trough, there will be upper
height falls and some larger scale lift at work too.

Behind the front, a significant change in the air mass will take
place. We will go from our current warm/hot and muggy air mass to
a cool and dry air mass. The coldest nights will be next Tuesday
and Wednesday nights, with widespread low temps in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Sea fog is expected to affect locations near the coast later this
evening and overnight. Some IFR conditions will be possible
further inland, although low ceilings seem more likely than fog
if winds stay up as expected. Conditions improve to VFR again
tomorrow morning with breezy southerly flow expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The strong afternoon seabreeze that is being observed in Bay
County supports issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the new St.
Andrews Bay marine zone, valid until sunset. SCAs for Saint
Andrews Bay will likely be needed again each afternoon through at
least Saturday, thanks to the seabreeze superimposing on the
already fresh background southerly winds.

From CWF synopsis... Strong high pressure east of Florida and low
pressure over Texas will support moderate to occasionally fresh
southerly breezes through Saturday, with strong nearshore
afternoon seabreezes. The muggy air mass will support patches of
sea fog. A sharp late season cold front will cross the waters on
Sunday night and Monday, followed by moderate to fresh northerly
breezes on Monday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Highlights through Saturday will feature near record high
afternoon temperatures over inland locations, along with high
afternoon dispersion values due to strong southerly wind gusts.
Onshore breezes will keep temperatures and dispersion a bit more
moderate near the coast. Despite a muggy air mass, the afternoon
heat will bring Min RH over inland locations into the 35-50
percent range. A fairly strong cold front is expected to pass the
districts on Sunday night and Monday, complete with the next
wetting rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The next round of widespread wetting rains will come with the
passage of a cold front, from Sunday into Monday night. Storm-
total rainfall is currently forecast to be in the 1 to 2.5 inch
range. In response, modest rises are likely on area rivers next
week, but rivers will stay well within their banks. This much rain
will only bring potential for local runoff issues in poor
drainage areas. Therefore, flooding is unlikely for the next 7
days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  85  66  85 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   68  81  68  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        67  88  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        66  89  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      68  91  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    67  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  69  76  67  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner