Tallahassee, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

418
FXUS62 KTAE 160636
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
236 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

- There is a medium to high chance of locations reaching 90
  degrees or above this weekend into mid week next week. The
  Florida Big Bend and southwest Georgia have the highest chances.
  The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without
  cooling/hydration.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected into next week
  with the better chances towards the end of the week. Afternoon
  storms each day could produce gusty winds and locally heavy
  rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through next Friday)
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

As an upper low and associated trough continue to move into the
western Atlantic, shortwave ridging develops and strengthens into
early next week with an upper high setting up off the Carolina
coast. Further west, the longwave trough deepens through the Rockies
with an upper low diving into the four corners. Surface high
pressure establishes over the Gulf Stream with surface winds
becoming southeasterly today. Moisture begins its trek into the
southeast US with PWATs increasing from 0.5 inches now to 1.3 to 1.5
inches by Sunday. For today, isolated showers and storms may develop
along the Atlantic seabreeze and move into the eastern Florida Big
Bend this afternoon. Models for Sunday are showing an uptick in
activity and rain chances from Albany to Cross city and points east
where chances are 40-60% along with PWATs pushing 1.8 inches.

Monday through Wednesday a little more convection may develop along
the Gulf Coast seabreeze as higher PWATs shift west with most
favored areas are in the Florida panhandle. Moving into late week,
the mid level ridging will shift off the east coast as a cold front
makes a run into the southeast US. This will provide the focus,
along with the seabreeze, for scattered convection each afternoon.

Temperature wise, highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s each
afternoon with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s each morning this
weekend into next week. Probs for 90+ remain at 30-50% this weekend
and 50-80% heading into mid week. Those probs will decrease into
late next week if the front reaches the area and increase in cloud
cover and rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

A TEMPO group for patchy fog at the VLD terminal this morning.
Confidence is low-medium but, there is some potential. Light
easterly winds this morning will shift southeasterly and southerly
in the afternoon as the sea breeze moves in. Winds may gust up to
15 kts for the ECP and TLH terminals this afternoon. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail however, a scattered to broken
deck of clouds is expected to move over all terminals later this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will commence today into next
week as high pressure will be situated off the east coast. A slight
uptick in winds will occur in the overnight hours each night as
easterly surges work offshore but should remain below cautionary
thresholds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

A warming and moistening trend is expected into next week with south
to southeasterly flow over the area thanks to high pressure off the
Carolina coast. Min RHs will improve to the mid 40 to mid 50% by
Sunday. High mixing heights and breezy transport winds will likely
lead to high dispersions each day through Monday. Generally dry
today with increasing rain chances Sunday along the I-75 corridor.
The Gulf Coast seabreeze will also generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms beginning next week favoring the eastern Florida
panhandle.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

Rainfall chances have trended slightly higher over the next week
though rainfall amounts are expected to be light with no flooding
anticipated.

Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area as long-
term rainfall deficits and low streamflows continue. For more
information on local drought impacts, please visit
www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  69  89  69 /   0   0  10   0
Panama City   85  68  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        89  64  89  65 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        90  69  89  67 /   0   0  30  20
Valdosta      92  70  91  67 /  10  20  50  20
Cross City    93  69  92  68 /  30  10  40  10
Apalachicola  82  71  82  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl