Pine Hills, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

419
FXUS62 KMLB 022323
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
723 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Breezy to gusty southeast winds and dry conditions prevail
  through late week and continue this weekend.

- Very warm conditions this weekend into early next week with
  highs in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide.

- Rain and lightning storms return to the forecast late Monday
  into Tuesday as a cold front approaches the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

It feels like we jumped ahead a couple months out there this
evening with temps still in the 80s in many spots along with dew
points in the upper 60s to low 70s. Other than a rogue shower
(chances less than 20%), a dry forecast continues.

East Central Florida is situated beneath a strong mid-level ridge
(H5 heights near to above 588 dam) centered over the W Atlantic.
ACARS soundings from MCO reveal a hostile dry layer extending
from 10 KFT to the tropopause and a subsidence inversion around 15
KFT, inhibiting deep convection. A deep trough rests over the
Rockies, placing the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys squarely in the
baroclinic zone where widespread severe weather is ongoing
tonight. The ridge will essentially protect Florida from those
significant impacts over the coming days. Locally, unseasonably
warm to hot daytime temperatures will be commonplace. Stay
hydrated, wear sunscreen, and seek the shade from time to time.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Now-Tonight...Fair weather cumulus are streaming from southeast to
northwest this afternoon. With a stout dry layer above 850mb and
lingering moisture nearer to the surface, these clouds are only
reaching 4-5 kft before being cut off by the drier air aloft. Plenty
of sunshine is filtering through, pushing temperatures into the mid
and upper 80s. We have several more hours of peak heating left, so
the high temperature forecast remains in good shape (mid 80s coast,
low 90s inland). While a shower cannot be ruled out around Lake
Okeechobee, the chance is generally 10 percent or less. Breezy
conditions are also present, with southeast winds 10-20 mph gusting
as high as 25-30 mph. The highest winds are occurring along the
Treasure Coast, where the sea breeze is attempting to develop. A
diffuse breeze is anticipated to migrate inland through mid evening,
bringing the potential for gusty winds 20-30 mph farther inland
around sunset. Winds relax after midnight in most locations, staying
breezy at the coast, as temperatures settle into the upper 60s and
low 70s.

Thursday-Friday...Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will work
to keep conditions dry through late week. Lower PW values rotate
northward from the Caribbean, limiting moisture return. Onshore flow
from the southeast will remain persistent, increasing each day from
late morning into the afternoon. Thus, wind gusts could approach 20-
30 mph both days, especially along the coast/barrier islands.
Similar to today, afternoon highs will reach for the mid 80s to low
90s, ending up warmest across the interior and cooler (relatively
speaking) at the coast. Overnight lows are forecast to remain mild
in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

Saturday-Tuesday...Competing synoptic features are highlighted in
the medium range guidance as we head into the weekend and early next
week. First, mid level ridging will remain entrenched over the
southeast U.S., especially Florida. Farther north and west, a deep
500mb trough, associated with a strong cold front and surface low,
is forecast to gradually move in our direction by early next week.
This will chip away at high pressure over the area and eventually
bring increasing rain chances to the area Monday into Tuesday.
Before then, temperatures are expected to warm even further over the
weekend, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s everywhere on Saturday
and Sunday. Breezy onshore flow will remain, providing only slight
relief from the heat. Though humidity is forecast to be lower, those
most sensitive to warmer temperatures should be sure to take extra
breaks in the shade or air-conditioning and remain well-hydrated.
Continued overnight lows in the upper 60s are forecast.

By early next week, surface winds begin to veer SSW ahead of the
approaching cold front. There are notable timing differences between
global models regarding the timing of increased rain chances and the
eventual frontal passage. Most guidance is in agreement on a Tuesday
(daytime) FROPA, while the GFS suggests a slightly less organized,
faster and drier FROPA late Monday into early Tuesday. Leaning on
consensus, it appears our best chance for rain and storms arrives
after sunrise Tuesday and continuing through the afternoon hours.
Since this is still 6+ days away, we will know more about the
potential for strong storms as we get closer in time. For now,
convective parameters are modest at best, so the forecast reflects
a chance of showers with isolated lightning storms. Temperatures
remain warm Monday with highs in the 90s, dropping back into the
70s and low 80s on Tuesday in association with rain and cloud
cover. QPF over the next seven days ranges from 0.2" south to
around 1" across northern areas. More unknowns about the overall
pattern will need to be ironed out before more specifics are
provided, but any rain will be a welcome sight following a very
dry start to the month.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Fresh southeast winds will continue to produce poor boating
conditions tonight through at least Thursday night, mainly in the
Gulf Stream. 15-20 kt winds with gusts 20-25 kt can be expected,
along with seas building up to 5 ft. Small craft should exercise
caution across the Gulf Stream.

South-southeast winds relax for a brief time on Friday before
freshening again over the weekend. Periods of poor boating
conditions can be expected, especially each afternoon and evening
over the Gulf Stream. More favorable conditions are forecast
during the morning hours. Seas generally 2-4 ft, up to 5 ft
offshore. Mostly dry weather is forecast until rain chances
increase early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR in the 00Z TAFs as SE winds prevail throughout. Gusts subside
tonight, but increase to around 25 KT on Thursday afternoon. There
is a low (20-30%) chance for some BKN MVFR to brief IFR stratus
late tonight. Will AMD as necessary, but for now included a period
of SCT010 to account for the potential.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Saturday-Monday...Lower relative humidity each afternoon,
particularly on Saturday and Sunday, will present sensitive fire
weather conditions. Combined with breezy southeast winds, especially
along the immediate coast, fire danger will be elevated this weekend
into early next week. Temperatures are forecast to remain very warm,
approaching records in a couple of spots, reaching the upper 80s to
low 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  85  70  85 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  70  89  69  88 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  72  84  71  84 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  72  84  70  84 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  70  90  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  70  89  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  70  89  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  71  84  69  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Heil