Palm Coast, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

262
FXUS62 KJAX 141742
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
142 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Temps are in the lower 90s in most areas but dewpoints are averaging
about 77-78 deg so this results in heat indices of about 103-108.
Further heating will likely push the indices up toward the 108 to
112 range in the advisory area.

Mean low level troughing extends across the southeast states from
NC to srn GA and this feature is expected to shift eastward
tonight while weakening. Still, some weak broad troughing will
remain across parts of our area by sunrise Friday. Deep layer
moisture values will remain high with PWAT at or just above 2
inches.

As far as precip, isolated to scattered convection over the area
with the moist and unstable airmass. Temps aloft are not too
impressive at -5 to -6C at 500 mb, but 0-8 km flow is moderate
from the west-southwest about 15-20 kt over north portions, dropping
to near 10 kt mainly for Marion, Putnam, Flagler and St Johns
counties. MLCAPE values forecast to rise through 2500-3000 J/kg,
possibly 3000-3500 J/kg from about coastal southeast GA to JAX
metro and along the I-10 corridor into the Suwannee Valley. Can`t
rule out a briefly severe storm with enough dry air around 700 mb
for a wind gust up to 50-60 mph in a downburst, but chances look
lower than they were yesterday. A few storms should be able to
move into the near shore and possibly offshore waters later in the
afternoon into the late evening. Convection should dissipate by
about midnight most areas. Lows will remain mild in the mid to
upper 70s tonight. Could be a tie of the record warm minimum at
GNV for today, which stands at 76 degrees from 2023.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

A trough will extend southwest across the area from a weak low off
the coast of the Carolinas this period. Daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected, mainly driven by diurnal heating and sea
breeze interactions. The trough will act as a focus, producing above
average precipitation chances.

Temperatures will be above seasonal averages this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Weak low near Carolinas will weaken early this period, as it largely
becomes absorbed by Tropical System named Erin. High pressure will
build south down the east coast of the US Tuesday through Wednesday,
while Erin, based on latest NHC forecast, passes well east of the
area. Interests should continue to monitor forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center regarding Erin. Precipitation chances will
continue above average Sunday into Monday. Expect some drier air to
advect south into region Tuesday into Wednesday due to the high and
flow around Erin, so precipitation chances will be closer to normal,
and possibly below normal.

Erin is expected to move further away to the northeast Wednesday
night into Thursday, with drier air place, continuing the lower than
average precipitation chances.

Temperatures will trend near normal through Monday, before returning
to above.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Scattered showers and storms expected rest of the afternoon and
evening so will maintain at least some VCTS and PROB30 groups for
MVFR TSRA cig/vsby. May upgrade to TEMPO groups at times for this
TAF set. Some VCSH and VCTS for mid to late evening hours and then
convection should dissipate thereafter. May be able to hold on
mentioning precip for Friday as current guidance shows little
precip chance until after 18z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

High pressure ridge centered across the central Florida peninsula
will drift southward through Friday as a trough develops over the
southeastern states. Prevailing southwest to south winds are
forecast as this surface trough settles over our local waters on
Friday, with the trough remaining nearly stationary over the region
through the weekend. Unsettled weather will develop over the weekend
with showers and thunderstorms likely. Northeast winds develop late
Sunday and continue into Monday as the trough shifts slowly south.
Still looking like swells arrive on Monday based on latest guidance
with periods of 14-16 seconds. Should continue to see the swells
through mid week at least. Seas are shown to increase Mon-Tue in
the latest forecast.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents through Friday
with surf up to 2-3 ft. Rip current threat at least moderate if
not high Monday through much of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Minor flooding possible along the Altamaha River near Baxley this
weekend as rainfall from this past weekend works it`s way through
the basin. Current indications are the levels may barely meet
criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  75  93 /  30  40  20  60
SSI  79  93  79  91 /  40  30  40  60
JAX  77  97  77  94 /  30  50  30  70
SGJ  77  94  78  93 /  30  40  30  70
GNV  76  96  76  95 /  20  50  20  70
OCF  75  96  77  95 /  20  50  20  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-
     031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-
     237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-151>154-162-
     163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$