Palm Coast, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

377
FXUS62 KJAX 030025
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
825 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New UPDATE, CLIMATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Convection has come to an end this evening with the lose of
daytime heating. After the record hot day, overnight lows may
break or tie the record low maximums in the upper 60s. Low stratus
and patchy fog develops across the area after midnight and lingers
into sunrise.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(This afternoon, Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

This afternoon...Southeast winds continue to increase to
15-20G25-30 mph as warm front lifts north of the region and expect
the last of the sea fog and low level stratus along the SE GA
coastal counties to scour out and dissipate this afternoon.
Otherwise near record warmth in the upper 80s/lower 90s over
inland areas will combine with low level instability as dew points
reach into the lower 70s and the inland moving East Coast sea
breeze to develop scattered showers and isolated storms, mainly
over inland SE GA to the west of the US 301 corridor, but isolated
convection is possible across inland NE FL as well. Temps still
cool enough aloft to kick off a few strong storms with gusty
winds/small hail into the evening hours around sunset.

Tonight...SE winds diminish to 5-10 mph over inland areas under
mostly clear skies late this evening, with light enough winds and
low level moisture for patchy fog/low stratus formation again
towards morning, but likely low level flow too much to allow for
widespread dense fog formation. Above normal low temps in the
65-70F inland and around 70F along the Atlantic Coast.

Thursday...Breezy SE to S flow at 15-20G25-30 mph will continue to
bring near record warmth and humidity to the region as Max temps
push to around 90F over inland areas, while the onshore flow will
keep the Atlantic Coast in the lower/middle 80s. Slightly drier
airmass aloft should limit any daytime convection with rainfall
chances generally 10% or less, although cannot rule out a brief
and/or isolated shower along the East Coast sea breeze as it moves
inland through the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Winds continue out of the south to southeast as high pressure
ridging, under a ridge aloft, continues over the area bringing
unseasonably high temperatures. Winds out of the southeast will
allow the sea-breeze to make its way inland in the afternoon,
keeping temperatures a little cooler for coastal areas. High
daytime temperatures are going to be in the upper 80s to low 90s
Friday over inland areas with temperatures in the upper 70s to low
80s closest to the Atlantic coast. Overnight, temperatures will
cool into the low to mid 60s over inland southeast Georgia with
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s over inland northeast
Florida. Wind coming in off the Atlantic will help keep
temperatures slightly warmer along the coast. Fog will be possible
overnight into the morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

High pressure at the surface and aloft continue into the weekend
bringing strong subsidence and heat to the area. Temperatures will
be above seasonal average with highs forecast to be in the upper
80s to low 90s over the weekend with lows in the 60s.

Going into next week, a cold front will make its way into the area
from the northwest. As the front approaches the area, chances for
rain and possibly a few storms will begin to increase starting as
early as Sunday evening through Monday. Showers may linger into
Tuesday depending on front timing. Temperatures will cool off
behind the passing front to bring temperatures down to near normal
then below normal into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Breezy SE winds will last longer than usual this evening with no
significant decrease until the 03-05Z time frame, and about this
time expect MVFR stratus deck to develop around 1500 feet and
progress northward and impact all TAF sites, even developing at
IFR levels at SSI and trending downward towards sunrise with MVFR
VSBYS possible along with a mixture of IFR/MVFR CIGS at the NE FL
TAF sites. Lower conditions will lift to MVFR/VFR levels in the
13-15Z time. Breezy SE winds develop again after 15Z with
sustained winds 10-15 kts and gusts 20-25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Southeast flow around high pressure ridge through the end of the
week will average out in the 15-20 knot range with seas building
into the 4 to 6 feet range, so will place SCEC (Small Craft
Exercise Caution) headlines in the forecast this package. Flow
becomes south this weekend at similar speeds as the ridge axis
pushes further southward and more offshore into the Western
Atlantic, so SCEC headlines look likely to continue. Flow becomes
Southwest ahead of the next cold frontal boundary on Monday and
may reach close to SCA levels late in the day into Monday Night.

Otherwise...Dense sea fog from late this morning along the SE GA
coast has scoured out and dissipated early this afternoon as
Southeast winds have increased and have canceled the dense fog
advisories, BUT will need to monitor for possible re-development
late tonight into early Thursday morning over the nearshore
waters if the winds slacken off.

Rip Currents: Moderate to High risk of rips will continue in the
southeast flow through Friday. Surf/Breakers generally in the 2-4
ft range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly over
southeast Georgia but, could get down into the Suwannee Valley
late this afternoon into the early evening. Winds continue out of
the northeast into Friday, allowing the Atlantic sea-breeze to
make its way inland each afternoon. Expect sustained winds of
15-20 mph east of HWY-17 today and tomorrow with gusts up to 30
mph as the sea-breeze makes its way in. Warming temperatures with
high transport winds will create patchy high daytime dispersion
over inland areas today through Friday. MinRH values are not
expected to drop below 38 through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Alma, GA broke its daily record high today with a high temperature
of 89 F. Previous record was 88 F set in 2017.

Gainesville, FL tied its daily record high today with a high of 92
F.

Last Date of High Temperature 90 deg or above

AMG Alma GA 9/30/24 - 90
JAX Jacksonville FL 10/2/24 - 90
CRG Craig Airfield 9/27/24 - 90
GNV Gainesville FL 10/4/24 - 91

Average Date of 90 Degrees Max Temperature

AMG Alma GA May 2
JAX Jacksonville FL May 4
CRG Craig Airfield Apr 22
GNV Gainesville FL April 22

Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites

      4/3      4/4      4/5      4/6

AMG   90       90       90       90
      1967     1963     2023     1967

JAX   89       90       91       90
      2017     2011     2017     1947

CRG   90       88       91       87
      2006     2012     2017     2022

GNV   91       91       90       90
      2017     1974     2023     2023

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  90  66  88 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  68  78  68  79 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  68  88  67  86 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  68  85  68  83 /   0  10   0   0
GNV  67  92  66  91 /  20   0   0   0
OCF  68  92  66  91 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$