Orlando, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

431
FXUS62 KMLB 250551
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
151 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025

- Continued chance for afternoon/evening rain and lightning storms
  Sunday into next week.

- Heat and humidity build each day into next week with peak heat
  index values around 100 this weekend, 100-105 next week.

&&

.UPDATE... (Tonight)
Issued at 733 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

It was quite an active early evening across the area with sea-
breeze and outflow-driven storms exploding on SFC CAPE of 4500+
J/kg and 20-30 KT of bulk shear. It was just cool enough aloft,
with steep lapse rates, for the healthiest storms to produce hail
from penny to golf ball size. Downdraft CAPE exceeded 1000 J/kg
as well, and several classic microburst signatures were observed
on volumetric reflectivity and base velocity data. This caused
some sporadic straight-line wind damage, particularly in Palm Bay
and west of Port St Lucie. We thank our media partners and the
public for the reports today.

Now that we have convectively overturned the atmosphere, lingering
convection and debris showers will subside through the evening
before quiet weather resumes overnight. Adjusted grids to reflect
ongoing and expected near-term conditions, but otherwise no
changes were required.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Sunday-Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Sun-Mon...A rinse-and-repeat weather pattern will stick around
for Sunday and Monday, with heat index values climbing by another
degree or two each day. Mid level ridging is forecast to build
over the Florida Peninsula as upper level winds decrease further.
Showers and storms are anticipated to form in the mid to late
afternoon hours on Sunday, with the potential for a slightly more
active west coast breeze. Westerly steering flow on Sunday will
push showers and storms toward the east FL coast, while lighter
steering winds on Monday will result in storm motion being more
erratic. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out each day with
gusty winds being the primary threat. Outside of storms, heat
index values will nudge higher into the low-mid 100s, especially
on Monday.

Tue-Sat...Through mid week, ridging holds over central Florida
with light southerly flow backing to the southeast each afternoon
(behind the sea breeze). Rain and storm chances (40-60%) will
increasingly favor interior locations as the sea breeze pushes
farther inland each afternoon. Daytime temps in the low 90s
combined with high humidity will lead to heat indices approaching
100-105 degrees during peak heating hours. Adequate cooling,
hydration, and sun protection will be needed as this stretch of
hot and humid weather lasts through much of the work week. By
Friday into next weekend, 500mb height anomalies hint at a change
in our overall pattern...increasingly unsettled weather leading to
potentially higher, more widespread rain chances. Additional
cloud cover and the approach of a front could also provide some
relief from the heat. Any specifics beyond that will become
clearer through the upcoming week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

High pressure over the local waters will promote light southerly
flow (~5-10 kt), followed by a daily afternoon/evening sea breeze
that backs winds to the E/SE 10-14 kt near the coast. Generally
favorable boating conditions are forecast as a result. However,
scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms will create the
primary boating hazard, bringing the potential for strong/gusty
winds, hail, and lightning strikes. Seas 1-2 FT, up to 3 FT
offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025

Variable winds around 3-5 kts overnight. South to southeast winds
developing after sunrise will begin to shift eastward by late
morning and into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze
steadily progresses inland. A persistent pattern will promote
scattered to numerous coverage of showers and isolated storms
again today. Have maintained VCTS at most terminals, generally
around or after 20Z. Will continue to monitor for potential TSRA
TEMPOs across the north interior with future TAF packages.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

No low RH concerns for the foreseeable future. High pressure over
the area for the next several days will promote light southerly
flow, backing to the southeast each afternoon behind the east
coast sea breeze. The sea breeze will be the focus for developing
rain and lightning storms each afternoon and evening as it moves
inland. Lightning strikes could lead to additional fire starts.
Daytime smoke dispersion will be Good to Very Good with lower
values along the immediate coast in the Fair category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  71  91  72 /  60  30  50  20
MCO  92  73  92  74 /  60  30  60  20
MLB  88  74  89  75 /  40  20  60  30
VRB  89  74  89  73 /  40  20  60  20
LEE  92  73  92  74 /  60  20  60  20
SFB  92  73  94  73 /  60  30  60  20
ORL  92  73  92  75 /  60  30  60  20
FPR  89  73  89  73 /  30  20  60  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Law