Miramar, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS62 KMFL 160538
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
138 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

    - High risk of rip currents for the Palm Beaches tonight.

    - Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening mainly over
      the interior areas of South Florida.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

A decayed frontal boundary will linger over the Florida Straits
today and into Saturday while a surface low tracks from east to west
across the southern Florida Peninsula. Simultaneously, broad mid-
level and upper-level troughing will encompass the SE U.S. as the
longwave trough advects through the area towards the western
Atlantic. While these mentioned features will provide some weaker
sources of lift, they alone are not expected to have enough strength
to outweigh the lack of deep moisture. Overall PWATs in the hi-res
models are showing 1.4-1.7", but this is misleading as this moisture
is extremely shallow (all of it is below the 750-800mb layer with
ample dry air above this). Therefore, air parcels will have an
extremely tough time breaking this inhibitive profile that also
highlights a weak capping inversion in the afternoon. Nevertheless,
the combination of multiple lifting mechanisms (stationary front,
sea breezes, surface low and outflow boundary collisions) and
steeper low level lapse rates might just be enough to produce a
couple of thunderstorms in the later afternoon and evening hours
today and perhaps an isolated occurrence of a stronger to marginally-
severe storm. A quick spin-up could also be possible due to
increased surface vorticity along the surface low propagation.
However, the chances for a stronger to marginally-severe storm or
spin-up are extremely conditional and will require all factors to
come together at the right time in order to overcome the cap of the
abundantly dry air above the boundary layer.

For Saturday, upper-level ridging will begin to expand more over the
Florida Peninsula and across most of the Eastern Seaboard, which is
expected to shift low-level and mid-level flow to out of a southerly
or southeasterly direction this weekend. This will create a flow
pattern suitable for increased moisture advection to South Florida
from the Caribbean. Thus, even though the ridge pattern should
suppress stronger convection, we are now entering the time of year
where increased heating will lead to enhanced sea breeze
circulations that will provide forcing necessary for showers and
storms. General weak flow will be present under the ridge, so both
the Atlantic and Gulf breezes will be able to advance inland on
Saturday and merge over the interior, so this will be the focus area
for most of the shower and thunderstorm activity on Saturday. PoPs
for Saturday are 40-50% over these areas and 15-30% closer to the
coasts and metro areas. The threat of strong storms is not expected
for Saturday with the only concerns being sub-severe winds and heavy
downpours.

High temperatures for today and Saturday will range from the upper
80s to low 90s for the east coast metro to the low to mid 90s for
Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

A lobe of mid-level vorticity will advect across the region during
the second half of the weekend via the southern branch of the
jet-stream as an expansive mid-level ridge gradually builds
across much of the Gulf during this time frame. This will occur
in tandem with an envelope of deeper atmospheric moisture
associated with a diffuse boundary over the Florida Straits
retrograding back into the region. This will usher in precipitable
water values that are forecast to be near the 90th percentile for
the date (1.7 to 1.9 inches). At the surface, anticyclonic flow
around surface high pressure situated in the western Atlantic
waters will allow for winds to remain out of a breezy east-
southeasterly component during the second half of the weekend
which will support a typical easterly flow wet season pattern with
overnight and morning shower and isolated thunderstorm activity
developing across the Gulfstream waters and eastern half of South
Florida before pushing westward and increasing in spatial coverage
across the peninsula towards southwestern Florida during the
afternoon and evening hours. The latest forecast continues to
depict 70-80% PoPs across much of southwestern Florida on Sunday
afternoon with the overall flow regime indicating that activity
could move northwestward along the pinned Gulf breeze. While 500mb
temperatures are close to average, forecast model soundings reveal
the potential of residual dry air in the vertical column with an
inverted "V" type of setup. Strong wind gusts, frequent to
excessive lightning, small hail, and heavy rainfall will be
possible with any thunderstorm that develops during the afternoon
hours, especially along the Gulf breeze.

Given the easterly flow regime and the inland progression of the
Atlantic sea-breeze, an afternoon temperature gradient is
forecast across the region with high temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s forecast across the east coast metro area to maximum
temperature values in the low to mid 90s across southwestern
Florida. Apparent temperatures (feels-like temps/heat indices)
are forecast to max out into the low 100s across coastal
southwestern Florida with values in the mid to upper 90s across
the rest of the region. Probabilistic guidance continues to
highlight a high (90-100%) probability of Moderate HeatRisk across
both metro areas during the second half of the weekend with a low
(10-30%) probability of Major HeatRisk across isolated pockets of
both metros. A Moderate HeatRisk affects those who are sensitive
to heat, especially those without adequate cooling/hydration, and
some health systems and industries.

By Monday, deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to hint at
the development of a mid-level low just to the east of the region
over the northwestern Bahamas with the continuation of mid-level
ridging across the southern Gulf. 500mb temperatures are forecast
to cool to between the 10th-25th percentile which may support the
potential for strong storms along the Gulf breeze during the
afternoon hours with the same general hazards possible like
Sunday. Once again easterly flow will result in the potential of
showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight/during the morning
across the eastern half of the region before the foci of diurnal
convection sets up over southwestern Florida on the confluence of
the gulf breeze. High temperatures will once again range from the
mid to upper 80s along the east coast to temperatures in the low
to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Triple digit apparent
temperatures are forecast to once again be realized across
southwestern Florida on Monday afternoon.

Not much change as we head into the mid-week period as South
Florida will remain situated between mid-level ridging to our
southwest and the mid-level cut-off low to our east. 500mb flow
will remain out of a northerly component although the main driving
mechanism of convection patterns will remain the predominantly
easterly surface flow. The highest rain chances each
afternoon/evening will continue to favor southwestern Florida.
Maximum temperatures will also remain status quo with high
temperature values in the low to mid 90s forecast across SW
Florida with temperatures in the upper 80s across the east coast
metro.

Towards the end of the long term period, forecast model guidance
hints at the departure of the cut-off low to the northeast and an
enhancement of mid-level ridging across the region. Deeper
atmospheric moisture will remain across the region at this time
which will still facilitate the daily occurrence of showers and
storms across the region with the highest rain chances still
draped over southwestern Florida each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions for all sites through the period. Breezy ESE winds
are expected for most eastern locations, while a Gulf breeze
develops at KAPF during the afternoon. Isolated to scattered
showers are forecast for interior South Florida and southwest
Florida. Added vicinity thunderstorms for KAPF, but most activity
is expected to remain more inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

A gentle to moderate easterly breeze is expected to develop by this
afternoon across the Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, a westerly breeze
will develop across the Gulf waters. A few showers or isolated
storms will be possible today which may result in briefly hazardous
winds and seas. Showers and storms are expected to increase in
coverage this weekend and into next week. Atlantic seas will be 2-4
feet through this weekend with Gulf seas at 2 feet or less for the
same time frame.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

A high risk for rip currents is in effect for the Palm beaches
beginning this afternoon and continuing into tonight. An elevated
risk is expected for the other Atlantic coast beaches heading into
this weekend, which also has the potential to become a high risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  77  88  78 /  20  40  50  30
West Kendall     90  75  89  75 /  30  30  40  20
Opa-Locka        89  77  89  78 /  20  40  50  30
Homestead        88  77  88  78 /  30  30  40  40
Fort Lauderdale  86  78  86  79 /  20  40  50  40
N Ft Lauderdale  86  77  86  78 /  20  40  50  30
Pembroke Pines   90  78  90  79 /  20  40  60  30
West Palm Beach  86  77  86  77 /  20  20  40  30
Boca Raton       86  79  86  79 /  20  40  50  30
Naples           91  75  92  75 /  10  30  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT this morning for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...NMP