Miramar, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

594
FXUS62 KMFL 051801
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
201 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 159 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

    - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all Atlantic beaches
      through the rest of the weekend.

    - A moderate to strong easterly breeze will bring continued
      hazardous conditions to the Atlantic waters through Sunday
      afternoon.

    - An unsettled pattern is becoming increasingly likely next
      week with periods of gusty winds and heavy rainfall possible
      across portions of South Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A mid-level shortwave trough will swing across the upper Midwest on
Sunday afternoon. The progression of this system is what will bring
about a wetter period across the Atlantic coast of Florida early to
middle of next week. Ridging across the western Atlantic will begin
flatten over the weekend as the trough encroaches eastward, and an
area of low pressure fills in an area along and east of the Bahamas.
Predominantly easterly winds will persist under this pattern, but
with the surface pressure gradient off the Atlantic coast
diminishing, winds look to weaken into the 10 to 15 kt range. Some
stronger gusts of 20 to 25 kts over the waters, may keep seas a bit
on the choppier side, with wave heights of 6 feet. A slug of
deeper moisture will stay strewn across the Peninsula through the
end of the weekend, with current guidance indicating PWATS between
1.4 to 1.6 inches. Local sounding climatology indicates these
values to be close to the 90th percentile for this time of year.
So, similar to the last few days, another round of scattered
showers is to be expected during the afternoon. Hi-res model
soundings show steep low level lapse rates and modest instability
for for a few thunderstorms to develop, but forcing and mid level
instability looks to be lacking for anything strong or severe.
Some light showers during the morning will move west from the Gulf
Stream, but most convection will focus along mesoscale sea-
breeze boundaries and outflows. The highest confidence area for
storms according to HREF ensemble probabilities is along the Gulf
breeze in Collier county and northwards towards Lake Okeechobee.

As the main mid-level trough axis pushes through the Rust Belt on
Sunday night, a surface cold front will be moving across north
Florida. There may be some enhanced moisture and slightly better
forcing over South Florida on Monday as the trough approaches.
However, most convective activity will once again focus along the
Gulf Breeze and interior parts of the state. Some locally heavy
downpours may produce accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. Overall
chances for showers across the region will be a bit higher than the
past few days, with 50 to 60% PoPs throughout South Florida by
Monday evening as the front sags into central Florida. Scattered
showers will likely continue overnight as the front looks to stall
somewhere between central and southern Florida by Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Much wetter conditions are forecast for the beginning to middle of
the week as the frontal boundary stalls over South Florida. Aloft,
another shortwave perturbation will swing across the state on
Tuesday, pushing through a lobe of vorticity which will help to
invigorate shower activity throughout the region. Meanwhile, a 1035
to 1040 mb post-frontal surface high will be strengthening over the
mid-atlantic states. This will induce a secondary backdoor
frontal push across the Atlantic waters, with wind speeds surging
into the 25 to 30 kt range by Wednesday. NBM has been a bit more
bullish on winds, with the deterministic output displaying Gale
force conditions across the waters. However, NBM ensemble
probabilities only show about a 50% to 60% chance of wind speeds
exceeding 30 kts, and that`s mainly for the Atlantic waters near
Palm Beach and northward. Global models and LREF ensembles show
even less confidence for strong winds, with probabilities of
exceeding 30 kts only in the 30% to 40% range. As a result, have
capped wind speeds across the waters at 30 kts for now. Yet, with
breezy winds near 30 kts, Small Craft Advisories are very likely
across the Atlantic, along with a High Risk of Rip Currents
throughout most beaches. These breezy winds will persist through
at least Thursday, before the pressure gradient starts to weaken
by Friday.

Going back to the rain threat, WPC has highlighted a Marginal Risk
of Excessive Rainfall along the Atlantic coast of Florida for Days 4
and 5 (Tuesday through Thursday). The combination of the stalled
front, anomalously high PWATS of 1.6 to 1.75 inches, and coastal
convergence along the Atlantic (in tandem with diurnal sea breeze
circulations), could lead to a heavy rainfall threat. The main
area of concern will be along coastal Palm Beach, Broward, and
Dade counties. Mid level flow also shifts back from the west while
surface flow will remain easterly, this could lead to a coastal
convergence setup where several storms remain pinned along the
coastline and precipitate heavy amounts for several hours. The
majority of ensemble clusters are showing the hot spot for
heaviest rainfall to be along the east-central Florida coast
between Melbourne and Palm Beach. One less likely set of solutions
(about a 20% chance) shows that the band of heavier rainfall
could set up near Dade and Broward if the front stalls further
south. The majority of ensemble guidance indicates that the most
likely scenario for rainfall amounts will be between 1 to 2 inches
on Tuesday thru Thursday, with locally heavier amounts of 2.5 to
3.5 inches. However, the high end scenario (90th percentile) shows
up to 5 inches and more widespread across the metro, which may
lead to some urban flooding concerns.

Mid-level troughing and above average moisture looks to persist
through the end of the week, which would keep wet conditions in
place each day through Saturday. Rain amounts become a little more
uncertain as drier air aloft begins to push into the region by the
weekend, but overall amounts should be trending lower compared to
what is observed in the middle of the week. By the end of the
period, guidance is hinting at high pressure beginning to build over
the Gulf, lowering rain chances and increasing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

MVFR ceilings and light rain will prevail for the next couple of
hours across the east coast. On the west coast, a TEMPO remains
for APF as coverage and intensity of storms is far greater. VFR
and low rain chances will prevail overnight, with showers and
periods of MVFR returning across the east coast tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Breezy easterly winds will persist across the Atlantic through
Sunday morning, before conditions begin to diminish during the
afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. During this same time
frame, a moderate breeze will be observed over the Gulf waters. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters
due to sustained winds expected at 20-25 kts. Isolated to
scattered showers may develop across the Atlantic and move inland,
but most convection during the afternoon should remain over inland
Florida and along the Gulf Breeze in southwest Florida. Seas
across the Atlantic waters will mainly be in the 4-6 ft range
while Gulf seas are forecast to remain in the 2-3 ft range.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The high risk for dangerous rip currents will continue at all
Atlantic beaches through this weekend as gusty onshore winds
persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            71  83  70  80 /  20  60  60  80
West Kendall     67  85  66  82 /  20  60  60  80
Opa-Locka        70  84  69  81 /  20  60  60  80
Homestead        71  84  69  82 /  20  50  60  70
Fort Lauderdale  72  81  70  77 /  20  60  70  90
N Ft Lauderdale  71  81  69  77 /  20  60  70  90
Pembroke Pines   72  85  70  82 /  20  60  70  80
West Palm Beach  70  81  68  77 /  20  60  80  90
Boca Raton       71  81  69  78 /  20  60  70  90
Naples           68  84  68  80 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....NMP
AVIATION...Harrigan