Lakeland, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

757
FXUS62 KTBW 150651
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
251 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Ridging looks to remain overhead today leading to light winds aloft.
Along with this we do see some slightly drier air filtering into the
mid level. Unfortunately that drier air will not be reflected at
the surface. This drier air aloft will result in lower storm
chances and less cloud cover this afternoon and evening. This will
help to bring temperatures up a few degrees and with dew point
temperatures in the upper 70`s we will see heat index above 108
in the late afternoon and early evening hours. This has resulted
in a heat advisory being issued for much of the area today.

As we go throughout the weekend ridging will remain with moisture
aloft slowly increasing. By Sunday PW will get above 2 inches once
again bringing higher then normal storm chances for the afternoon
and evening hours. These higher storm chances will continue into our
Monday. With ridging overhead storm motion will be very slow. This
could lead to some localized flooding where ever storms develop.

As we get into Tuesday and Wednesday storm motion will remain
neutral but PWs will lower slightly which will also bring storm
chances back to our typical 50 to 60 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Drier air aloft will result in less storm coverage this afternoon
and evening. Best storm chances will be over the interior. The
driest air looks to be in SW FL where VCTS are not mentioned in
the TAFs at FMY and RSW. Winds will generally remain below 10
knots and we are expecting VFR condition`s outside of
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Ridging overhead will continue to give us light winds
around 5 to 10 knots through next Tuesday out of the north and east.
Best chance of storms each day will be along the land breeze at
night and along the coast in the evening as storms start to push off
land.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at
a minimum.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  80  95  81 /  50  20  60  40
FMY  95  78  94  78 /  30  20  50  30
GIF  97  78  97  78 /  40  20  60  20
SRQ  93  78  94  78 /  40  30  50  40
BKV  94  76  96  76 /  50  20  70  40
SPG  92  82  92  80 /  40  30  50  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Hardee-Inland
     Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley