Lakeland, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

544
FXUS62 KTBW 021435
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1035 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Low clouds have been persistent this morning across the interior
after some early morning fog began to lift. However, satellite
imagery continues to show this layer eroding, and at a fairly
efficient pace. It should be clearing out over the next hour or so.
Otherwise, today`s weather looks mostly sunny and warm. With high
pressure continuing to build, the gradient is fairly tight. Thus,
gusty winds, particularly in the afternoon, are expected. There is
also a low, but not zero, chance for a couple more isolated storms
late this afternoon, likely along the I-75 corridor. However, rain
chances remain very low - only to around 10 percent or so - given
that the overall setup is not particularly favorable.

A couple tweaks have been made to the forecast this morning, notably
adjusting wind speeds and wind gusts upward slightly. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Dense fog advisory through mid morning for coastal Levy and
Citrus counties. The advisory may need to be extended inland in
the next few hours, with the main impact area looking like inland
Levy county.

High amplitude energetic pattern across the CONUS with a deep
trough over the western U.S. which is pumping up a strong
downstream U/L ridge over the Florida peninsula. The overall
L/W pattern will gradually shift east over the next several days
as strong westerlies push under a strong Gulf of Alaska low. This
will cause a sharp ridge to develop over the western U.S. and
western Canada over the weekend, and will nudge what was the west
coast trough eastward...which will then extend from Hudson Bay to
the Southern Plains. The downstream ridge which was over Florida
will gradually shift to the western Atlantic. Early next week, the
slow progression will continue with the trough making its way
toward the east coast...with several U/L disturbances riding
through the flow.

At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will hold
across the Florida peninsula through the remainder of the week and
much of the weekend. Gradient will tighten today with rather gusty
southeast winds developing. Combination of high pressure surface
and aloft will create strong subsidence over the forecast area for
the next several days which will lead to mostly clear skies and
very warm temperatures...topping out in the lower 90s in many
areas away from the coast each afternoon.

Late in the weekend and particularly on Monday, the U/L ridge
will pull away from the region and the U/L trough will approach
from the west. An associated cold front will slowly push across
west central and southwest Florida Monday and Monday night with a
band of showers and thunderstorms...with showers/thunderstorms
possibly lingering into Tuesday across the southern forecast area.
Although it`s a bit early, can`t rule out a few strong storms
over the nature coast on Monday. With the loss of daytime heating
combined with the main U/L support beginning to lift away from the
region, thunderstorm activity should weaken Monday night as the
storms push across the remainder of west central and southwest
Florida.

High pressure will build back over the forecast area in the wake
of the front with much cooler drier air advecting across the
region. Temperature will drop several degrees below climatic
normals across the nature coast...and near climatic normals
central and south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Pockets of IFR/LIFR continue across the interior and around SWFL
terminals this morning. This should dissipate within the next couple
hours, with VFR prevailing thereafter. Gustier winds are anticipated
through the day as the gradient tightens, but overall weather
conditions look quiet for the next few days, with little to no
aviation impacts anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

High pressure remains in control across the region, with rain-free
conditions expected through the weekend. As the pressure gradient
tightens, gusty winds are possible at times across coastal waters,
but should generally remain below cautionary levels.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days.
The very warm temperatures will cause afternoon relative humidity
values to drop into the 40s for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  73  92  72 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  92  72  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  92  71  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  90  72  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  92  66  92  66 /  10  10   0   0
SPG  87  73  87  72 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Oglesby