Lakeland, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

747
FXUS62 KTBW 131823
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
123 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next cold front arrives Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning. There
  is a 60% to 80% chance of showers tomorrow night as the front
  moves through. The probability of thunderstorms is low.

- Hazardous marine conditions are forecast Thursday morning
  through Friday morning. Winds of 20kts to 30kts with gusts to
  near gale force (34kts) are forecast. This will create seas up
  to 10 feet offshore and seas of 4 to 7 feet nearshore.
  Inexperienced mariners should remain in harbor.

- A significant cooldown is forecast late this week. Friday
  morning will be the coldest, with lows in the 20s and 30s away
  from the coast, and around 40 degrees along the coast. Plan
  accordingly, particularly in the overnight and early morning
  hours when temperatures will be at their coldest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A trough axis is centered over the Great Lakes region and stretches
south into the Central Plains, becoming increasingly diffuse as weak
ridging holds on across the Caribbean and southern Gulf. This is,
however, being eroded as a cut-off low propagates eastward across
West TX. For now, though, the pattern remains relatively flat and
surface high pressure remains in control.

Given the surface ridge axis placement well to the East near
Bermuda, a return flow has settled across the FL peninsula.
Relatively warmer and more moist air is being advected back across
the region. With this lower-level moisture this means more clouds
and weak low-level instability. A low-topped, quick-passing shower
cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon/evening across the
southern interior and SWFL given this setup, but most areas should
stay dry today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The more impactful weather system arrives late tomorrow and into
Thursday morning. The cut-off low over TX is absorbed by the flow as
the trough over the Great Lakes digs into the SE and becomes
positively tilted. This will usher in a strong cold front to the
region.

Ahead of the front, showers are forecast to develop across Gulf
waters and move onshore. Some of these showers could have some gusty
winds - but the overall potential for lightning is low given the
weak (-5C) low-level lapse rates. It`s just not a very rapidly
cooling atmosphere in the layer where the deeper moisture lies.

However, the strong frontal system will drive a steep pressure
gradient and thus favor gusty winds. These will begin to increase as
the front approaches, but will become stronger once the front
passes. Wind gusts over coastal waters could approach gale force
(34kts). Friction over land favors wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts.

Colder air then filters in behind the frontal passage, with several
chilly days in store. The coldest day in the forecast currently
looks to be Friday. Lows will generally be in the 20s and 30s,
except right at the water where temperatures will be closer to 40
degrees due to the relatively warmer water.

Gradually, temperatures then begin to warm up through the weekend as
high pressure settles east and the low-level flow veers to more of a
southerly direction. However, meridional flow stays dominant in the
upper-levels, which means another trough and associated frontal
boundary will arrive in the area early next week. This will hold
temperatures down, and favors some additional cooling early next
week. Currently, next Monday is also looking pretty similar
temperature-wise to how Friday will be this week. Gradual warming
then resumes towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The only significant aviation concern over the next 24 to 30 hours
is for MVFR to perhaps even IFR conditions due to low CIGs. There is
a low (less than 20%) probability of a shower after 18Z tomorrow for
Tampa Bay area terminals. Probabilities for showers will then
increase overnight Wednesday into Thursday as the next front
approaches. A period of MVFR to even IFR weather will also accompany
these showers before conditions gradually improve through Thursday.
However, gusty winds should be expected during the day Thursday,
before gradually improving Thursday night and into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Marine conditions will begin deteriorating late tomorrow as the next
cold front approaches. Some storms are forecast across coastal
waters, with some locally hazardous marine conditions possible in
the vicinity. However, winds begin to increase significantly behind
the front, with gusts to near gale force possible on Thursday. This
favors dangerous seas of up to 10 feet offshore and 4 to 7 feet
nearshore. Inexperienced mariners should remain in port until
conditions improve. Winds then begin to settle Thursday night and
into Friday, with improving marine conditions Saturday before
gradually increasing again as the next front approaches late in the
weekend and early next week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

No significant fire weather concerns through tomorrow with ample
moisture and light winds to preclude any red flag concerns. The next
front arrives overnight Wednesday and into Thursday, with the
potential for some rain across the entire region. Conditions then
dry out on Thursday as winds increase. Winds then diminish into
Friday and the first half of the weekend, which will again lower
fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  58  69  55  63 /  10  20  80  40
FMY  63  75  60  70 /  20  10  70  70
GIF  58  71  54  62 /  20  20  60  40
SRQ  59  70  57  66 /  10  20  80  60
BKV  50  68  47  61 /  10  20  70  30
SPG  62  70  59  65 /  10  20  80  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery