Jacksonville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

140
FXUS62 KJAX 160416
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1216 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Of Rip Currents Through The Weekend

- Isolated Afternoon & Early Evening Thunderstorms

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- High risk of rip currents at area beaches
- Dry conditions will elevate fire weather concerns inland areas

Today: Moisture levels increase slightly today in the Southeast
boundary layer flow which will allow for widely scattered showers
and isolated storms to develop along the East Coast sea breeze as it
moves inland and sets up along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL,
but severe weather is not expected with any of the isolated storm
activity. Max temps will push to above normal levels and into the
lower to middle 90s over inland areas, but remain in the upper 80s
along the I-95 corridor and middle 80s along the Atlantic beaches in
the breezy onshore SE flow during the afternoon hours with sustained
winds around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph at times.

Tonight: High pressure ridge remains just north of the region with a
few isolated showers and storms over far inland areas during the
evening hours which will fade quickly after sunset. Otherwise mainly
fair skies during the overnight hours with min temps continuing at
slightly above normal levels with lows only falling into the
mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.
Fog chances remain low with only patchy fog possible around sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weather Concerns this Period:

- Isolated strong to marginally severe storms along the I-75
corridor Sunday evening

- High rip current risk at the beaches each day

     SUNDAY...

Increasing thunderstorm chances expected Sunday as deeper moisture
is introduced across the area by a southeasterly prevailing flow.
This will push the Atlantic sea breeze well inland Sunday evening
where it will collide with the slower-moving Gulf breeze. The
collision should occur somewhere near the I-75 corridor where
chances for storms and some beneficial rain will be highest.

Considering the influence of a shortwave lifting northward along the
sea breezes as they collide, and cooler air aloft it`ll bring,
cannot rule out the potential for a marginally severe storm or two
Sunday evening. The main concerns with convection will be slow storm
motions leading to locally heavy rain and possible minor flooding
and potential for strong downburst winds of 40-60 mph. Outflow
interactions may continue showers and isolated storms into the late
evening with activity fading by midnight.

     MONDAY...

This`ll be a "down" day for thunderstorm activity along the sea
breeze owing to a dry air advecting westward off the Atlantic. There
still could be sufficient moisture across north-central FL for a few
showers to develop but coverage will be extremely isolated. Breezy
onshore winds will continue and the most concerning impacts will be
focused at the beach where a high rip current risk is likely.


     TEMPERATURES...

Due to the onshore flow, cooler high temperature readings are
expected at the coast each day in the mid 80s, whereas inland
counties are likely reach the low 90s. Overnight the opposite will
be true, more mild temps will be favored at the coast, while inland
areas gradually fall to the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weather Concerns this Period:

- Daily afternoon thunderstorms; best coverage and strongest storms
expected along the sea breeze merger

- Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely
through the first half of the upcoming week.

The upcoming week will set up into a "standard" sea breeze setup as
the Bermuda ridge becomes established. The western extension of the
ridge axis is progged to lay to the north, allowing a feed of
moisture off the Atlantic on southeasterly flow through at least
Thursday. Over those few days, total precipitable water will rise
gradually from around 1.2" to 1.5". The inland-directed flow will
continue an Atlantic (easterly) dominant sea breeze, keeping the
best chances for diurnal convection focused inland toward the I-75
corridor where sea breeze mergers are more likely to occur.

By Thursday the upper ridge will begin to flatten and send the low
level ridge axis southward, resulting in a more central sea breeze
merger between the US 301 and I-75 corridors. Another shift in the
sea breeze merger is expected Friday as steering flow becomes
southwesterly ahead of slowing front. This`ll place the best chances
for robust convection toward the I-95 corridor. Given the pattern
and trend in guidance, it`s unlikely the cool front will make it
into the forecast area next weekend.

Otherwise, beneath an amplified upper ridge temperatures will be
slightly above normal through next week, except at the beaches where
the onshore flow will likely keep afternoon highs in the mid/upper
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through the
current TAF period except for the usual patchy MVFR fog at VQQ
tonight. East to southeast winds will increase today with the East
Coast sea breeze to 10-15G20 knots this afternoon. Winds fade to 5-
10 knots along the coast after sunset and 5 knots or less at inland
locations. Only some fair weather Cu at VFR levels can be expected
at TAF sites this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure ridge will set up north of the local waters today and
east to southeast winds will then strengthen this afternoon, likely
resulting in a period of Caution conditions for the near shore
waters through the evening hours. High pressure will continue to
extend its axis across the southeastern states from Sunday through
the middle portion of next week, keeping a persistent onshore wind
flow with late afternoon and evening wind surges expected. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible in this weather pattern
during the early to middle portions of next week. A frontal boundary
will then move over the southeastern states late next week resulting
in gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Rip Currents:

Onshore East to Southeast flow at close to 15 knots through the
weekend will continue a High Risk of Rip currents with surf in the 2
to 4 feet range and will likely continue into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patchy High Dispersions Over The Weekend

Bermuda high pressure will establish and lead to a dominant Atlantic
sea breeze over the next several afternoons. The Atlantic and Gulf
sea breeze collision will occur along the I-75 corridor this evening
and Sunday evening. Isolated storms are possible this evening with
greater coverage and potential for strong to severe storms possible
Sunday evening. Expect winds to shift easterly with the sea breeze
with gusts around 15 mph and possibly up to 20 mph at the coast. The
combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport
winds will generate near-high dispersions inland this afternoon. No
concerns of low humidity through the next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Fog will be possible Saturday and
Sunday mornings. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible Sunday
evening along the I-75 corridor; storms will be capable of erratic,
strong gusts in excess of 40 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  30  10
SSI  81  73  84  73 /  10   0  10   0
JAX  88  70  88  70 /  20   0  20   0
SGJ  87  72  87  73 /  10   0  10   0
GNV  94  69  92  69 /  40  30  60  30
OCF  93  69  90  70 /  50  30  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$