Jacksonville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

010
FXUS62 KJAX 172319
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
719 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 719 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

No major updates needed on the forecast this evening. Some showers
and storms will linger for the next few hours, with quiet
conditions overnight. In the morning, showers will likely move
onshore, with convection then firing up later in the afternoon.
Heat indices will remain below Advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

High pressure will build down the southeastern US coast this
period, while Hurricane Erin passes to the southeast, then east
of the region.

Drier air is forecast to advect south into the region this period,
between the high and Erin. This drier air, in combination with
high pressure providing subsidence will help to limit convection
especially across SE GA. Better moisture will persist over NE FL,
where coverage is expected to be higher.

Temperatures will trend a little above average this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Hurricane Erin will pass to the east then northeast of the region
through Thursday. Drier air will remain in place through Thursday,
keeping precipitation chances isolated to scattered over SE GA,
and a little higher across NE FL. Troughing will be in place
across area Friday through the weekend with increasing moisture
leading to higher precipitation chances.

Temperatures this period will be above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Generally VFR conditions expected overnight except for GNV and VQQ
which may see some visibility impacts. Showers will move onshore
in the morning, so VCSH is in place for the coastal sites for now.
Thunderstorm chances are lower at SSI tomorrow, so just have VCTS
in their TAF, with PROB30s elsewhere tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1133 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

A weak surface trough will linger across our local waters through
tonight, with showers and thunderstorms expected to increase in
coverage and intensity later this afternoon. Stronger storms will
be capable of creating briefly strong wind gusts, frequent
lightning strikes, and possible waterspouts. Seas of 2 to 3 feet
will prevail both near shore and offshore through tonight. High
pressure will then strengthen over the Great Lakes region on
Monday, with this feature wedging down the southeastern seaboard
through midweek, resulting in gradually strengthening
northeasterly winds across our local waters. Meanwhile, Major
Hurricane Erin will turn northwestward later today and then
northward by Tuesday, remaining east of northeast of the Bahamas.
Easterly swells from Erin will begin to increase within our local
waters on Monday afternoon and evening, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions expected to begin on Monday night offshore, as seas
build to 5-8 feet. Seas near shore will build to Caution levels of
4-6 feet on Monday night, with Small Craft Advisory level seas of
5-8 feet developing on Tuesday. Small Craft conditions continue
will through Thursday night as Erin turns north-northeastward,
remaining well offshore of the U.S. eastern seaboard. Seas will
peak in the 8-10 foot range near shore on Wednesday, with 9-13
foot seas offshore.

Rip Currents / Beach Erosion: Easterly swells of 9-10 seconds will
create a moderate rip current risk at area beaches this afternoon.
Powerful swells emanating from distant Major Hurricane Erin will
arrive at area beaches on Monday afternoon, with swell periods
increasing to 14-16 seconds, with breaker heights building to 3-5
feet for the northeast FL beaches and 2-4 feet at the southeast GA
beaches, creating a high risk for deadly rip currents by Monday
afternoon at all area beaches. Breaker heights will continue to
build on Tuesday, with High Surf Advisory conditions expected at
the northeast FL beaches, as breakers build to 6-8 feet, while
breakers at the southeast GA beaches build to 3-6 feet. Breakers
will peak in the 9-10 foot range at the northeast FL beaches on
Wednesday, with values of 4-7 feet currently forecast for the
southeast GA beaches. Pounding surf and elevated astronomical
tides will likely create at least moderate beach erosion at the
northeast FL beaches towards midweek, especially during the late
afternoon and early evening high tide cycles.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1133 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Northeasterly transport winds around 10 mph will prevail this
afternoon, with breezy surface speeds expected at coastal
locations. Increasing clouds and rainfall / cloud cover should
keep daytime dispersion values generally poor, except low across
north central FL. Transport winds will shift slightly to east-
northeasterly on Monday, with breezy northeasterly surface winds
expected at coastal locations. A drier air mass and higher mixing
heights for locations north of Waycross will yield good daytime
dispersion values, with fair values forecast elsewhere, except
poor across north central FL. Breezy northeasterly surface and
transport winds will then overspread our area by Tuesday
afternoon, creating good daytime dispersion values, with
marginally high values possible for portions of inland northeast
FL, the Suwannee Valley, and north central FL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY / COASTAL FLOODING...
Issued at 1133 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

River flooding...Minor flooding will continue along upper portions
of the Altamaha River through this evening before water levels
fall below flood stage after midnight tonight.

Coastal flooding...latest PETSS and ETSS guidance indicate
inundation up to Minor flood stage possible around high tides
along the Atlantic coast and within the St. Johns River basin
towards midweek, with most locations reaching Action Stage on
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  93  71  94 /  20  20   0  10
SSI  77  89  78  90 /  20  40   0  20
JAX  75  90  75  92 /  30  60   0  30
SGJ  77  89  77  90 /  30  70  10  40
GNV  75  92  73  94 /  30  70  10  30
OCF  75  92  75  93 /  30  70  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$