Jacksonville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

202
FXUS62 KJAX 160507
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
107 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered To Numerous Severe Storms Monday Areawide. Potential
  Hazards: Damaging Wind Gusts, Isolated Tornadoes, and Hail.

- Freeze Watch for Portions of Inland Southeast GA Monday Night

- Small Craft Advisory Late Tonight through Tuesday

- Frost and Freeze for Inland Southeast GA & Suwannee Valley
  Tuesday night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Scattered to Numerous Severe Storms Today. Potential Hazards:
Damaging Wind Gusts, Isolated Tornadoes, Hail, Frequent Lightning
Strikes, and Heavy Downpours.

- Light Freeze possible late tonight inland Southeast Georgia.

Today: Forecast on track for strong pre-frontal squall line to push
from NW to SE through SE GA/NE FL with scattered to numerous severe
storm activity. All Hazards are in play with damaging winds of 50-70
mph, isolated tornadoes, hail, frequent lightning and heavy
downpours. Timing still shows leading edge of this squall line
pushing into inland SE GA/Suwannee Valley by the mid-late morning
hours and reaching the I-95 corridor by the early afternoon hours,
then into the Atlantic waters by the late afternoon hours. Other
than the usual straight line wind threat along the squall line, will
be closely monitoring discrete supercell activity ahead of the line
for potential rotation and isolated tornadoes. Gradient winds out of
the south and southwest ahead of the squall line in diurnal heating
are expected to increase to sustained 15-25 mph with gusts in the 30-
40 mph range, but will likely fall short of Wind Advisory criteria
and the main messaging will be strong winds due to severe storms
anyways. Still expecting another day of above normal temps, although
not quite as warm as Sunday afternoon, Max temps will reach into the
lower/middle 80s across NE FL from the I-75 corridor eastward to the
Atlantic Coast, while the earlier timing of the squall line will
hold Max temps in the mid/upper 70s across most of SE GA and the
Suwannee Valley.

Tonight: Following the cold frontal passage a much colder air mass
will plunge into the region along with skies becoming partly to
mostly clear towards morning. Low temps will plummet into the lower
to middle 30s across inland SE GA and middle to upper 30s across
inland NE FL and around 40F along the Atlantic Coast. Gusty NW winds
at 15-20G30 mph in the evening will slowly fade to around 10 mph
during the overnight hours. There is enough confidence in low temps
around 32F across inland SE GA to the NW of Waycross to post a
Freeze Watch for these locations, along with some patchy frost
possible for some inland locations where the wind drops off closer
to 5 mph by sunrise Tuesday morning. The NW winds along with the
much colder temps will drive wind chills down into the 25-30F range
across SE GA and around 30F across most of NE FL, but still likely
just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Freezing low temperatures and frost Tuesday nigh for inland
southeast Georgia

Much cooler and drier air will be present behind the frontal
passage, with high temperatures Tuesday staying in the 50s areawide
with breezy northwesterly winds. Tuesday night, northerly winds will
calm and with clear skies it will dip into the 30s for inland areas,
and 40s for the coast and St. Johns river basin. A light freeze and
widespread frost is likely for inland southeast Georgia, with patchy
to areas of frost expanding into the Suwannee Valley and I-10
corridor area.

It`ll warm up a few more degrees Wednesday, with highs in the upper
50s to 60s with winds shifting onshore as high pressure builds to
the northeast. Low temperatures will stay just above freezing
Wednesday night, in the mid 30s to mid 40s inland, near 50 along the
Atlantic coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Warming trend late in the period

Temperatures will continue to warm up through the weekend as dry
conditions continue. Onshore winds will generally keep coastal
temperatures a few degrees cooler than inland locations, and by the
weekend inland areas will see highs in the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Shower activity lessening early this morning with mostly VFR conds
expected along with SW winds at 5-10 knots. SW winds increase
steadily to 15G25 knots through the morning hours ahead of the
squall line, then still on track for potential severe storms at all
terminals in the 16-20Z time frame and will continue the 25G35 knot
wind gusts in TEMPO groups, along with MVFR CIGS and IFR VSBYS in
TSRA activity, then some post squall line MVFR CIGS and VCSH with
lesser SW-W winds 10-15 knots in the 20-24Z time frame, before
becoming VFR later in the TAF period with mid/high VFR clouds
remaining.

&&

.MARINE...


Small Craft Advisory conditions develop this morning ahead of a
strong cold frontal boundary which will push into the local waters
this afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to
impact our local waters this afternoon, with the potential for
damaging wind gusts, waterspouts, and large hail. Winds will shift
to westerly following the passage of the strong cold front, with
strong northwesterly winds forecast tonight and Tuesday morning
throughout our local waters with gale force gusts possible as high
pressure builds into the southeastern states. Winds will shift to
northerly on Tuesday afternoon and then northeasterly by Wednesday
as high pressure shifts northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic
coast. This strengthening high pressure center will wedge down the
southeastern seaboard later this week, creating another round of
Small Craft Advisory conditions on Wednesday night and Thursday.
Winds and seas are expected to diminish by Friday afternoon.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rips is expected in the South to
Southwest flow today ahead of the cold front with surf/breakers in
the 2-4 ft range, with a continued Moderate risk on Tuesday with
Northwest to North flow and surf/breakers in the 2-3 ft range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patchy High Dispersion Monday And Tuesday
- Critically Low Minrh Tuesday Through Friday
- Scattered Severe Storms Monday

A strong cold front will move southeast across the area on Monday,
bringing scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Much cooler and
drier air will be present behind the cold front on Tuesday. Breezy
southwest winds ahead of the front Monday will promote patchy high
daytime dispersion, and patchy high dispersion continues Tuesday as
winds shift northwesterly behind the front. MinRH values will drop
below 30% for most inland locations Tuesday, and remain low through
Friday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog potential is not
expected Tonight. A light freeze and patchy fog will be possible for
portions of inland southeast Georgia Monday night, with more
confidence in a freeze and widespread frost Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  32  54  30 / 100  10   0   0
SSI  75  37  55  41 /  80  20   0   0
JAX  82  36  57  38 /  80  20   0   0
SGJ  82  38  58  44 /  80  30   0   0
GNV  81  36  58  37 /  90  20   0   0
OCF  83  37  59  38 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     GAZ132>135-149.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$