Jacksonville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

566
FXUS62 KJAX 131746
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1246 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Several Freeze Events through Early Next Week. Friday Morning:
  Hard Freeze Inland & Coastal Light Freeze Likely

- Dangerously Cold Wind Chills in the teens to low 20s Possible.
Consecutive Nights of Inland Freezes Fri Night through Next Tue Night

- Small Craft Advisory & Gale Force Gusts Thu & Thu Night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon...Partly sunny skies with temps closer to seasonable
values for mid January in the lower 60s SE GA and mid/upper 60s for
NE FL and around 60F for Atlantic Coastal Areas. North winds much
lighter than yesterday around 10 mph or so.

Tonight...Increasing cloudiness from the south and west overnight as
a broad surface forms offshore of the FL Atlantic coast as a longer
wave mid/upper level trough deepens across the western Gulf. Min
temps not as cool with lows in the mid/upper 30 across inland SE GA
and 40s to lower 50s elsewhere and will likely bottom out around
midnight to 3am then hold steady or even nudge upwards towards
morning as clouds continue to increase, which should also prevent
any significant fog formation. A few light showers and sprinkles
will also be possible overnight mainly across northeast Florida as
the surface low that develops near the southeast FL Atlantic coast
tracks northward, east of the local area, into early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level shortwave will quickly traverse across the region on
Wednesday afternoon and evening, just a piece of energy associated
with a deepening longwave trough over the south/central US. Despite
the mid and upper level forcing, rain chances with this feature will
be quite limited given the ongoing drought as well as limited layer
moisture. However, a few light showers/sprinkles will likely
traverse from west to east during the afternoon and evening, with
rain chances around the 15 to 20 % range. With plenty of cloud cover
and this feature acting as a weak pseudo cold front, high temps
will be a bit cooler on average area wide: ranging from the mid
to upper 50s over interior southeast GA to the low to mid 60s
elsewhere.

Main portion of the deepening/southeastward digging upper
trough moves towards the area Wednesday Night and across the
region through Thursday, with an accompanying strong cold front
traversing eastward out ahead of the feature. Timing of the
frontal passage is generally as follows: entering southeast GA
around late Wednesday Evening, towards the I-10 corridor by
about early morning Thursday, then clearing the entire region by
about mid to late morning Thursday. Along with
strengthening/gusty northwesterly winds behind the front during
the daytime, a few showers will be once again possible overnight
Wednesday and through the first half of Thursday, mainly across
northeast FL where just a bit more moisture advection will be
expected off the Gulf. Though overall, similar to Wednesday,
moisture is quite limited despite the rather impressive forcing
aloft, and combined with the mostly non-diurnal timing of the
boundary, rain chances will therefore be limited to about the
30-50% chance at most for northeast FL and very low across
southeast GA as much drier air starts to advect into the early
throughout the morning hours. As expected, Thursday will be a
much cooler day with the front moving through during the first
half of the day, with upper 40s to low 50s north and west and
mid to upper 50s south and east.

Thursday Night will feature clouds continuing to exit the area with
a cold night in store. Thursday Night will be tricky with respect to
both ambient min temperatures as well as apparent temps/wind chills,
as it will highly depend on how quickly gusty northwesterly breezes
subside as surface high pressure will start to center closer to
right over the area by sunrise Friday Morning. Overall, both
frost/freeze and Cold Weather Advisory products will be in play to
Thursday Night and Friday Morning, which will continue to be
evaluated through tomorrow. Though generally speaking, a hard freeze
is likely inland with highs in the 20s, and in the upper 20s to low
30s closer to the coast and St. Johns Basin which very much keeps
frost/freeze potential in the discussion all the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cool high pressure will remain across the region on Friday before
scooting off to our east Saturday as another frontal system
approaches the region. This next cold front looks to move through
the region Saturday Night into Sunday Morning, which once again
looks like a mostly dry frontal passage. Dry high pressure is then
expected to remain in place Sunday afternoon through the start of
next week, remaining west or northwest of the region which will keep
a cool continental drainage type flow in place. Aside from a
bit of a "warmup" Saturday as the next frontal approaches and
moves through, temps below normal will be expected for most of
the long term. This will include chances for frost/freeze
products each morning inland, and perhaps even closer to the
coast Monday Morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conds through the afternoon with SCT-BKN clouds around
5000 feet or so along with North winds in the 5-10 knot range. These
conditions will continue this evening, with increasing clouds in the
mid levels through the overnight hours, along with low probs of MVFR
CIGS towards sunrise at NE FL TAF sites and will trend in this
direction in the next TAF package. Low rainfall chances at NE FL TAF
sites in the 20-30% range by the 12-18Z time frame, but will likely
leave out of the TAF forecast for now.

&&

.MARINE...
A coastal trough over the waters breaks down this afternoon and
shifts farther offshore as high pressure builds across the the Gulf
coast states. The high will extend across the local waters tonight
into Wednesday as a broad surface low tracks northward well east of
the local Atlantic coast. Westerly winds increase Wednesday night as
a strong cold front moves across the region. Small craft advisory
conditions return Thursday trailing the frontal passage and continue
into Thursday night. Winds and seas subside Friday as high pressure
builds directly over the local waters. The high will shift southeast
Saturday as a weaker, dry cold front moves across the waters with a
surge in northwest to north winds behind the frontal passage late
Saturday into Sunday.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Wednesday
              NE FL Low Wednesday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-Areas of low dispersions Today
-Areas of high dispersions Thursday

High pressure over the southeast US will sink southward into the
Gulf today, keeping winds generally out of the north to northwest.
Winds will be strongest near the coast and St. Johns River Basin
thanks to a coastal trough that will weaken throughout the day.
Winds above the surface and therefore transport winds will be
weak today, resulting in mainly low/poor daytime dispersions
today. Lingering dry airmass will create MinRH values of 22-27
percent over inland Georgia northwest of about US84. Wednesday,
west-southwest winds increase ahead of an approaching front
resulting in good dispersions. Light scattered showers will be
possible as a weak front moves through the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night, though Thunder is not expected. Breezy
northwesterly winds develop in the wake of the front bringing
high dispersions area-wide on Thursday. A cold and dry airmass
filters in for the end of the work week lowering RHs into the
20s. Elevated Fire Danger will be possible for inland southeast
Georgia on Thursday due to breezy winds and low RHs.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
over the next several days. A widespread freeze is forecast for
Thursday night, including areas of frost as well. A light inland
freeze will be likely each night for several nights beginning Friday
Night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  36  57  36 /   0  10  30  10
SSI  60  44  61  42 /   0  10  20  10
JAX  64  45  64  42 /   0  10  20  10
SGJ  64  49  65  47 /  10  30  20  30
GNV  66  47  66  44 /   0  10  20  30
OCF  68  49  67  45 /   0  20  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$