Fort Lauderdale, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

968
FXUS62 KMFL 052338
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
738 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across South
Florida this evening, however, activity is gradually diminishing
as the evening progresses. The latest CAMs suggest that there may
be a lull in shower and thunderstorm activity across the region
during the late evening hours, however, another round of
convection will be possible heading further into the overnight and
pre dawn hours especially across the coastal areas. Any showers
and thunderstorms that develop will be slow moving and could
produce heavy downpours. This could lead to the potential of
localized flooding especially over the coastal and metro areas
which have already been saturated from recent heavy rainfall
earlier today. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from
the mid 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s
along the east coast metro areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1:21 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Easterly flow continues tonight as high pressure remains centered
in the northeast US and northeast. meanwhile, the tropical
disturbance in the SW Gulf of Mexico has become Tropical
Depression 14 (TD14). Deep moisture continues to move towards the
depression, which may lead to passing showers across SoFlo this
evening.

On Sunday, a shortwave trough progressing through the SE states
will erode the mid-level ridge, opening the door for a more active
weather period. A stronger moisture resurgence is expected as
flow strengthens around TD14 in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Impulses of
positive vorticity advection will advect into the area as part of
a circulation in association with a larger gyre, and this will
provide energy for increasing showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
PWATs could exceed 2.5 inches on Sunday, providing plentiful deep
moisture for the impulses to work with. Therefore, periods of
rain and widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on
Sunday. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall could pose a flooding
risk beginning on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

**TS Milton Will Strengthen, Likely Make Landfall Across Gulf Coast
of Florida**

**Heavy Rainfall Expected: Widespread Swath of 5-8 Inches for S
Florida**

A broad envelope of deep tropical moisture will become zonally
elongated over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Simultaneously, several
upper level impulses will traverse the mean steering flow and
result in a gradual veering and cyclonic/convergent transition of
winds within the boundary layer. This will result in a favorable
setup for widespread rainfall, which may be heavy at times and
could lead to flash flooding through early to middle portions
of next week. Precipitable water indices (PWAT) as high as 2.3 - 2.6
inches is near the 98-99th percentile for atmospheric moisture
content this time of year, and the steady isentropic ascent over
this period will allow for a prolonged period of rainfall from
Monday through Wednesday, with few intermittent bouts of dry
conditions in between. Expected rainfall totals from Sunday night
through Wednesday of around 5 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of
10+ inches possible. A Flood Watch is in effect, as antecedent
rainfall totals of several inches have already accumulated over
portions of metropolitan Palm Beach and Broward Counties. There is a
low-end chance that isolated locations could experience significant
freshwater flooding over the next several days (particularly
Monday/Tuesday), though the sporadic and chaotic nature of
convection in the tropics/sub-tropics makes it too speculative to
determine which exact locations may be most vulnerable in terms of
receiving the greatest rainfall totals.

Tropical Depression 14 in the western Gulf of Mexico has quickly
strengthened, and is officially Tropical Storm Milton now, per the
latest NHC guidance and observations. This system is forecast to
strengthen into a hurricane and will likely make landfall along the west
coast of Florida. A short-wave trough will eject southward into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and likely phase with the system at some
point, perhaps allowing for some extratropical characteristics as
the system makes landfall along the western coast of Florida.
Regardless of the exact hybrid nature of the storm, Milton may bring
significant impacts to the region and the west coast of Florida as a
whole. The primary concern aside from the aforementioned heavy
rainfall will be the potential for significant, potentially life
threatening storm surge values for coastal portions of Collier and
Mainland Monroe Counties, as the angle of approach and strength of
the system could allow for devastating storm surge to impact these
locations. With that being said, there exists a reasonable bit of
uncertainty on where the exact landfall point will be, with model
solutions ranging as far north as Citrus/Hernando County, and as far
as south Mainland Monroe County. It is crucial to mention that
regardless of the exact landfall point, this system could be a
significant storm surge producer for coastal portions of southwest
Florida, so it is absolutely paramount for communities in these
coastal locations to monitor and prepare accordingly.

Towards the middle/end of next week following Milton`s departure
into the western Atlantic waters, a strong/expansive ridge of high
pressure is forecast to dominate eastern CONUS, with a surface high
pressure centered over the Appalachian Mountains. South Florida will
likely be within the southern quadrant of this feature, with a mean
NE/ENE flow prevailing across the region. This may be a timely and
much needed start to the dry season, though some uncertainty remains
regarding the distinction and separation of airmasses. Nevertheless,
a much quieter period appears in store in terms of sensible weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours.
Scattered showers will continue to be possible near the terminals
during this time frame. Generally light winds overnight will
increase out of the ESE to around 10 kts late Sunday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread from the
mid morning hours on Sunday into the afternoon hours as well.
This could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions to the terminals
during this time frame and short fused AMDs will be likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Generally moderate easterly winds will prevail across the area waters
through Saturday around 10-15kts, with seas increasing over the
Atlantic waters to around 3-4 ft for the weekend as swell moves in
from the north. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each
day, and may result in locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

There is a high risk for rip currents for the Palm Beaches
today while remaining moderate for the Miami and Broward beaches
as onshore flow persists. Moderate amplitude northerly swell will
continue to move in for the rest of the weekend which will keep
the rip current risk elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  86  76  84 /  60  80  70  80
West Kendall     76  85  74  85 /  70  80  70  80
Opa-Locka        78  85  76  86 /  60  80  70  80
Homestead        78  85  76  85 /  80  80  70  80
Fort Lauderdale  77  84  75  84 /  70  80  70  80
N Ft Lauderdale  78  85  75  84 /  70  80  70  80
Pembroke Pines   78  85  76  86 /  60  80  70  80
West Palm Beach  77  84  75  84 /  60  70  70  70
Boca Raton       77  84  75  85 /  60  80  70  80
Naples           76  84  74  84 /  70  90  60  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Thursday morning for
     FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC