Daytona Beach, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

785
FXUS62 KMLB 142329
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
729 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

TS activity is winding down after a very active afternoon across
our terminals. After around 2Z, it should be quiet for the
overnight. The concern then turns to the potential for fog
development. Guidance remains in disagreement, but moisture
remains high amid light winds. Considering what occurred earlier
today, decided to add some MVFR prevailing VIS at several
terminals, mainly MLB-MCO northward, after 9Z. There is a 20-30%
chance of reaching IFR at these locales, so will continue to
monitor trends. On Sunday, storm coverage looks lower but will
continue with VCTS mention at MCO after around 20Z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Key Messages...

- High coverage of showers and storms capable of heavy rainfall,
  occasional to frequent lightning, and gusty winds into this
  evening

- Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with a Moderate
  Heat Risk expected into early next week

- Saint Johns River at Astor forecast to remain in Moderate Flood
  through mid next week

Currently-Tonight... Local radar imagery shows scattered to numerous
showers and lightning storms with the greatest coverage near the
coast, as well as over Okeechobee county. Analysis charts show a
stationary boundary over north-central Florida with a weak
shortwave over north Florida along the stationary boundary. A
surface trough is situated over the southwest Atlantic to the
northeast of the local Atlantic waters. Temperatures are in the
upper 70s to mid 80s, mainly where it has recently rained near the
coast north of Martin county and the upper 80s to low 90s
elsewhere with dew points in the low 70s to low 80s. Heat index
values are up to 108-111 are observed where a Heat Advisory is in
effect until 6PM over Okeechobee and Martin counties.

Scattered to numerous showers (PoPs ~ 60-70%) and lightning
storms are forecast to develop west of the storms near the coast
as interactions occur between the sea breezes and outflow from
previous storms. Rain shower and storm chances gradually diminish
after sunset (PoPs ~ 20-40%) before ending by midnight. The main
hazards will be heavy rainfall, occasional to frequent lightning,
and wind gusts up to 40-50mph with storm motion to the east.
Rainfall amounts of 1-3" (locally up to 4") will have the
potential to produce minor flooding of urban, low-lying, and poor
drainage areas due to already saturated soils. Patchy dense fog is
forecast overnight which will have the potential to reduce
visibility to 1/2 mile or less after 2am and before it is
expected to dissipate around 9am. Low temperatures in the low to
upper 70s are forecast with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday... Lower rain shower and lightning storm chances are
forecast Sunday (PoPs ~ 30-50%) with drier air (PWATs ~ 1.5-2")
expected over east central Florida behind the developing low over
the southwest Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has
outlooked the aforementioned low with a 50% chance of tropical
development early next week as it tracks north farther away from
the eastern Florida coast. Scattered showers and lightning storms
are forecast to develop over east central Florida into the
afternoon and evening Sunday. The main hazards will be occasional
lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 30-40mph, and moderate to
locally heavy rainfall. Light west-northwest winds are forecast
to veer north-northeast into the afternoon and evening hours at
5-10mph.Afternoon highs in the upper 80 to low 90s with heat
index values up to 100-107 and a Moderate HeatRisk are forecast
Sunday. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to
heat. It is recommended to take frequent breaks from the heat and
stay hydrated, especially if spending extended periods of time
outdoors this afternoon.

Monday-Friday (modified previous discussion)... Regional
attention turns to a weak non-tropical area of low pressure along
the aforementioned weak frontal boundary off of north FL/southeast
U.S. early in the period. This feature has a 50% chance of
tropical development early next week as it is forecast to move
north towards the Carolina coasts early next week. Movement will
generally be towards the NNW (twd Carolinas/mid AA weak surface
Otherwise, drier air over the GoMex remains forecast to move into
the central peninsula into much of the next week. While lower
PWATs are expected, a daily sea breeze along the east coast is
expected to develop under a weak pressure gradient in place. Inland
movement each afternoon will have the potential to be stymied
somewhat with continued light offshore flow in the low-levels.
Storm steering motion will remain to the north-northeast with the
highest coverage of storms (40-50%) forecast across the eastern
peninsula each afternoon/early evening. While warmer temperatures
aloft will exist thru Sunday night, there is cooling forecast at
H500 (-7C to -8C) which could aid destabilization each day. A
messy/troughy pattern in the mid-levels will exist from the mid
Atlc thru the southeast U.S. and north FL during this period with
periodic shortwave impulses expected to traverse the area.
Afternoon highs in the U80s to L90s each day, with overnight mins
in the L-M70s, except U70s along the immediate Space/Treasure
coasts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 434 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Currently-Tonight... Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers
and lightning storms are forecast this evening and into the
overnight. The main hazards will be occasional to frequent
lightning, wind gusts up to 40-50mph, and heavy rainfall. North-
northeast winds at 6-12kts are forecast to back west-northwest
overnight. Seas are forecast to build up to 2-3ft nearshore with
up to 4ft over the Gulf Stream and up to 5ft over the offshore
Volusia and northern Brevard waters into the early morning Sunday.

Sunday-Wednesday (modified previous discussion)... Storm motion
to the east-northeast is expected which will bring offshore moving
showers/storms across the local waters Sunday into next week.
ECSB formation is forecast each day with light onshore winds
developing into the afternoon. Winds speeds at 6-12 kts (outside
of convection) into next week. Wave heights are forecast to build
Sunday into early next week due to increasing long period
northerly swells. Seas are forecast to reach 6-8 ft offshore and
over the Gulf Stream Sunday through Tuesday with seas up to 4-6ft
expected nearshore. Seas are forecast to slowly subside Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday. Seas up to 1-3ft are forecast nearshore
and up to 4ft over the offshore waters, as well as the Gulf Stream
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  75  88 /  20  30  20  50
MCO  75  92  75  91 /  20  40  10  50
MLB  77  90  77  90 /  30  30  20  40
VRB  76  92  76  90 /  40  50  20  40
LEE  75  90  74  90 /  10  30  10  50
SFB  75  90  74  90 /  10  40  10  50
ORL  76  92  76  91 /  10  40  10  50
FPR  76  92  76  90 /  40  50  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Heil