Davie, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

638
FXUS62 KMFL 261402
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
902 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Mesoanalysis indicates that aside from upper level cloud cover
briskly moving along in the sub tropical jet-stream aloft, it is
another benign late December morning across the region. Peering
below the upper level clouds and moving down in the vertical
column, an expansive amount of dry air remains entrenched in the
500-850mb layer. The 12z MFL Sounding from a few hours ago
recorded a 28% mid-level RH value with a stout separation of
temperature and dewpoint values. Below 850mb, mesoanalysis
indicates the presence of low-level boundary moisture via a light
onshore wind component out of the east. Diurnal heating and the
enhancement of this onshore easterly wind component will likely
result in isolated showers (currently over the nearby Gulfstream)
moving onshore across portions of the east coast metro over the
next several hours and increasing in spatial coverage later today.
12z HREF paintball probabilities indicate this pattern quite well
with the other CAMs (convective allowing models) highlighting
Broward and Palm Beach counties through the afternoon for the best
chances.

Forecast from the midnight shift remains on track and no changes
were made aside from adding a mention of fog west of Lake
Okeechobee late tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1248 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Latest analysis shows a lingering surface boundary along the far
southern tip of the peninsula, with high pressure remaining in
control over the NE US. At the mid levels, there is very weak
ridging across the state of FL, while the upper level southern jet
is draped across Southern FL. This is all resulting in low level
easterly flow and mid/upper level westerly flow. Light winds over
interior SW FL may result in some patchy fog early this morning but
should quickly dissipate by 13 or 14Z. There will be plenty of cloud
cover again today, but little in the way of rainfall outside of some
widely scattered coastal showers. Afternoon high temps will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temps tonight will range from the
middle 60s to lower 70s.

Rain chances increase a bit on Friday as a weak shortwave approaches
the SE Gulf of Mexico and a surface boundary sits along the FL
Straits. PWAT values increase a bit to 1.5-1.7 inches and forecast
soundings show deeper moisture throughout the column. While
thunderstorms will be most likely over the waters, an isolated
thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled out over land. High temps on
Friday will again be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Increased moisture (PWATs 1.5-1.7 inches) will linger through the
weekend leading to a slightly increased chance (30-40%) for isolated
to scattered showers across the area with the best chance over
eastern portions of the area and local Atlantic waters. For now, it
appears that periodic rainfall may be possible, generally beginning
by mid-day Friday into portions of Saturday and Sunday, though
predominately dry conditions remain in place most of each day. As
a strong upper level low transverses the central and eastern
CONUS early next week, drier air will work its way across South
Florida reducing rain chances and cloud cover although a stray
shower could still be possible during this time period mainly
across eastern portions of the area.

Temperatures remain seasonable through the long term period, with
maximum temperatures generally reaching the upper 70s/lower 80s each
afternoon. A drying trend is likely early next week, though a
meaningful reduction in temperatures is unlikely as of now.
Overnight, expect low temperatures in the 60s/70s along the
interior/east coast respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Easterly winds will prevail at all terminals today with the
potential of isolated SHRA across the eastern half of the region
later today into tonight. L/V winds at inland terminals overnight
with easterly flow remaining in place at terminals closer to the
coast. Handled with VCSH for now to account for increasing rain
chances at east coast terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Gentle to moderate easterly breeze expected today over the area
waters with a fresh breeze developing over the Atlantic waters
beginning on Friday. Seas 2-3 ft in the Atlantic waters building to
3-5 ft on Friday. Seas in the Gulf generally 2 ft or less through
Friday. A few thunderstorms are possible over the waters on Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1248 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today along the Palm
Beaches. A high risk of rips are expected beginning Friday for all
Atlantic beaches as easterly flow strengthens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  72  78  70 /  20  20  20  10
West Kendall     81  68  80  68 /  20  20  20  10
Opa-Locka        81  70  80  69 /  20  20  20  20
Homestead        80  71  79  70 /  20  20  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  79  71  78  70 /  20  20  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  79  71  78  70 /  20  20  20  20
Pembroke Pines   82  71  82  70 /  20  20  20  20
West Palm Beach  80  70  79  69 /  20  20  30  20
Boca Raton       80  71  80  70 /  20  20  30  20
Naples           80  66  80  65 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...Hadi