Rising Sun-Lebanon, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

186
FXUS61 KPHI 071055
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
655 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this morning. Surface high
pressure returns thereafter and holds influence over the region
into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front currently lies across east-central PA and
continues to shift east early this morning, and is beginning to
cross through the Delaware Valley. Showers have dissipated at
this time though there has been some redevelopment to our north
near the NYC metro. Can`t completely rule out this development
extending southward towards eastern New Jersey but chances of
this remain low overall (less than 20 percent)

By late this morning, the cold front will be making steady
progress across the area, clearing the coast by the afternoon.
Skies are expected to clear rather quickly behind the front with
temps returning closer to normal...mostly in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. However, it will be quite breezy at times behind the
front with northwesterly winds occasionally gusting up to 25-30
mph making it feel a bit more like Autumn.

Surface high pressure to our west then begins to build in
tonight and Tuesday. This will bring continued northwest winds
and cooler temps. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 40s across
the region, though some low 50s may be sprinkled in the heart of
the Philly metro and at the immediate coasts of NJ and DE.
Highs on Tuesday are forecast to generally top out in the mid-
upper 60s for most areas with mainly clear skies continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and clear to partly cloudy through the short term with near
to a bit below normal temps thanks to northwesterly flow between
high pressure to our west and low pressure to our northeast,
with an upper trough remaining overhead. Brief increase in cloud
cover Tuesday evening with passing upper shortwave should
dwindle through the night, providing a good radiational cooling
night. Colder spots in the Poconos have a good chance of at
least some patchy frost. With mostly sunny skies, high rebound
to readings almost identical to Tuesday on Wednesday, with
widespread mid 60s to near 70, except near 60 in the Poconos.

A reinforcing cold front will cross the region Wednesday night.
This will bring a brief uptick in winds and possibly clouds, but
no precipitation. As winds and clouds diminish later, may see
more radiational cooling so expect lows to be similar to Tuesday
night, perhaps a tick warmer due mainly to a bit more wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions expected to prevail through next weekend.
Reinfocing cold front on Wednesday night will push highs down
another 5 degrees overall on Thursday, with low-mid 60s common
except low-mid 50s in the Poconos. May be some stratocumulus
buildups in the afternoon with the upper trough still hanging
nearby, but no precip. Winds will be a bit elevated as the
Canadian high behind the front slowly builds eastward, but not
really substantial... just another factor making the day feel a
bit more autumnal.

Coldest night of the season looks to be Thursday night with many
areas flirting with the upper 30s for the first time this season
and the coldest spots in the Poconos perhaps reaching the
freezing mark for the first time. It won`t be quite perfect
radiational cooling as the high center will remain to the
northwest with a bit of northwest gradient, but mostly clear
skies should prevail.

High pressure is nearly overhead Friday with plenty of sunshine
and lighter winds. This should allow temps to rebound a couple
degrees over Thursday, with some places possibly touching 70
again.

Another dry cold front then approaches from the northwest on
Saturday, with southwesterly winds allowing temps to spike
notably. Highs should return to the mid-upper 70s for most.

Temps drop back closer to normal for Sunday behind said cold
front, with highs back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Clouds
will likely start increasing again though as another system
which could finally bring a little rain approaches by day`s end.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...Lingering MVFR ceilings in the morning will lift to VFR
by 15Z. S-SW winds will become W-NW winds later this morning
following frontal passage. Winds may occasionally gust up to
20-25 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR conditions. Northwest winds around 5 knots. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...VFR with no significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all ocean zones through
tonight. South-southwest winds around 15-20 kt early this
morning occasionally gusting up to 25 kt will become
northwesterly following a frontal passage this afternoon. Seas
of 4-6 feet. Isolated to scattered showers possible this
morning, before fair weather returns by Monday afternoon. Sub-
SCA conditions are expected to return on Tuesday as winds and
seas decrease, though seas may linger near 5 feet.

Outlook...
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Sub-SCA with winds gusts 15 kts or
less and seas 3-4 feet.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...SCA possible. Wind
gusts to 25 kt and wave heights up to 5 feet.

Friday...Sub-SCA with wind gusts 20 kt or less and wave heights
3 to 4 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/RCM
NEAR TERM...AKL
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...AKL/RCM
MARINE...AKL/RCM