North Star, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

338
FXUS61 KPHI 240549
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1249 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through this evening with a weak high
pressure system following in its wake. This high pressure system
does not slide offshore until Christmas Day as another weak low
pressure system moves through. An active pattern will take
shape for the end of the week and weekend with the potential for
a series of storm systems impacting the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
With the wintry precipitation having moved out of the area,
attention now turns to a cold front which will move through the
area into the early overnight hours bringing some cold air with
it as winds turn out of the northwest.

Low temperatures tonight are mainly in the mid to upper 30s
(above freezing) south of I-78, and close to 30 degrees north of
there. So any icy roads from refreezing snow melt should be
confined to untreated roads north of I-78. Winds will also
increase overnight as the cold front pushes offshore, which
should help to dry things out a bit more too. There continues to
be a signal for wind gusts near 40-50 mph across the Pocono
Plateau and higher elevations of northwest New Jersey developing
after midnight tonight into Wednesday morning. This will be due
to strong low level winds developing beneath an inversion and
the Bernoulli effect accelerating winds across the ridge lines
and mountain peaks, and significant wind gusts are not expected
outside of these areas. A Wind Advisory was issued for tonight
into Wednesday morning for Carbon and Monroe counties. Wind
gusts reaching near 40-50 mph in the higher elevations of NW NJ
appear more localized, so a Wind Advisory was not issued for
these areas at this time. Elsewhere, gusts around 25-35 mph are
forecast.

Behind the cold front that moves through tonight, a high
pressure system will approach from the west out of the Great
Lakes region. This high pressure system will keep tomorrow on
the more tranquil side. A majority of the day will be mostly
clear before clouds increase during the evening hours. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the 40s for most with the 30s for the
Poconos. Winds in the morning will still range from 25-35 mph
for many with upwards of 40-50 mph for the Poconos. Due to the
high pressure system building in, the winds will lessen through
the day. By Wednesday evening, gusts are 5-10 mph for most and
upwards of 20 mph in the Poconos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be overhead on Wednesday Night and moving
offshore ahead of a weak clipper system. Cloud cover increases
as the night goes on but any precipitation should hold off until
daybreak. Temperatures drop into the mid to upper 20s and low
30s.

For Christmas Day, a weak shortwave and associated area of low
pressure dive to our southeast. This will clip the southern half
of our region, bringing some light showers, though nothing of
significance and rain accumulations below a tenth of an inch.
Looking at around a 30-40% chance of rain for South Jersey and
Delmarva, with a 15-25% for southeastern PA, and the rest of New
Jersey. So, not a washout, but a mostly cloudy day with some
showers around. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s with
upper 40s over lower Delmarva.

Things dry out for Christmas night as an area of high pressure
slides by to the north. Temperatures generally will be in the
20s with some teens north of I-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An active and unsettled period is ahead for the weekend and
potentially into next week. Main period to watch will be Friday
and Friday Night as well as Sunday and Sunday Night as two
systems impact the region, likely bringing some form of wintry
weather.

The first system comes in Friday into Friday Night. There is a
lot of uncertainty with this system as high pressure off the
north will result in some cold air in place, but warm air aloft
will be trying to erode that cold air. There likely will be a
transition zone setting up over our area between all rain,
sleet/freezing rain, and snow. The track and timing of the
surface low will make all the difference, and hopefully that
will come into focus over the next few forecast cycles. The
trend as of late has been a bit slower and further south with
the track of the surface low, which would actually result in
more impacts for our region. The potential is certainly there
for accumulating snow, possibly significant, for areas north of
Philadelphia. A wide variety of outcomes exist still among
deterministic guidance, with the GFS bringing significant
accumulations from Philadelphia on north, the GEM having minor
snowfall limited to northern areas, and the ECWMF and its AI
counterpart going more in the middle of those solutions. NBM
Probability of 2" or more of snow is around 50-80% from Philly
on north with probabilities decreasing drastically the further
south you go. Probability of 6" or more of snow is around 15-30%
for the Philly metro, Lehigh Valley, and Poconos, with around a
40-50% chance for North Jersey.

Another component with this storm is the potential for some
freezing rain and measurable ice accumulation. Again, still too
early to know for sure given low confidence, but current
probabilistic guidance from the NBM has around a 30-50% chance
of ice accumulations greater than a tenth of an inch from the
I-95 corridor on west.

Overall, as mentioned previously, this is a low confidence
forecast, but areas from about Philadelphia on north and west
should keep a close eye on the forecast as this storm could be
potentially disruptive and bring large impacts.

Saturday looks to be a period in between systems, however, some
lingering rain or snow showers could hover over the region as
an area of low pressure meanders offshore. Some guidance even
shows a small chance for freezing rain/drizzle. However, things
could also be completely dry if the low offshore goes further
out to sea. PoPs are only around 20-30% for Saturday.

For Saturday Night, a warm front lifts northward with a
stronger cold front coming through sometime Sunday or Sunday
Night. Some cold air especially on Saturday Night and early
Sunday could get trapped over the Lehigh Valley and Poconos if
the warm front is slower and gets hung up. Some guidance shows
another period of freezing rain possible. For most though, it
will primarily be an all rain event with the cold front coming
through on Sunday Night/Monday morning.

Temperatures likely take a tumble next week with breezy
conditions in a cold advection pattern, though it should be dry
as we get towards the new year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...VFR ceilings will scatter out through 09Z. West
wind increasing and shifting northwest by 08-10Z with gusts up
to 20 kt. LLWS is expected for KRDG and KABE and the I-95
terminals with the arrival of the cold front. Moderate
confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. Northwest wind 10-15 kt with gusts generally
25-30 kt, perhaps peak gusts high as 35 kt for KRDG and KABE.
Wind will start to decrease after 18Z, with gusts ending by 22Z.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR conditions possible, especially from KPHL
on south as low clouds and showers move through.

Thursday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Friday through Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions expected at all
terminals is a winter storm impacts the region. All
precipitation types on the table for all terminals, though the
highest chance for snow and freezing rain will be from the I-95
corridor on west.

Saturday Night through Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions expected.
Primarily rain at all terminals, though KABE/KRDG could see some
freezing rain on Saturday Night.

&&

.MARINE...
After marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions today across the
Atlantic coastal waters due to southerly wind gusts around
20-25 kts and seas near 3-5 feet. There will be a lull for a few
hours this evening as conditions fall below Small Craft
Advisory criteria. After midnight, winds and seas will increase
as another period of Small Craft Advisory conditions develop.
Northwest winds gusting 25- 30 kts are forecast by dawn
Wednesday with seas 3-5 feet. The Delaware Bay has a Small Craft
Advisory that runs from 4 AM to 4 PM on Wednesday. There is the
potential for occasional gale force gusts on the Atlantic
coastal waters but due to the period being brief, no Gale
Warning was issued.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night...No marine headlines expected.

Thursday through Thursday Night...SCA conditions possible (50%)
as winds near 25 kt out of the northwest and seas near 5 feet.

Friday...No marine headlines expected.

Friday Night through Saturday...SCA conditions possible (50%)
with seas nearing 5 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ054-055.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM EST
     this afternoon for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...Cooper/Guzzo/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Hoeflich
AVIATION...Cooper/Guzzo/Hoeflich/Staarmann
MARINE...Guzzo/Hoeflich