Willimantic, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

311
FXUS61 KBOX 312353
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
753 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure will bring scattered showers and gusty
southwest to west winds as it passes through Southern New
England late this afternoon into tonight. Mostly clear and
generally dry to start Sunday but increasing cloudiness and
westerly breezes will lead to a cooler than normal first day of
June. Dry weather then continues into the workweek, although
with a warming trend. Very warm temperatures likely by late in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
330 PM Update:

Key Messages:

* Scattered t-storms in interior central/northern MA dissipate and
  lift northward into New Hampshire by 6 PM.

* Gusty to strong SW winds up to 50 mph for southeast New
  England thru 10 PM, possible minor tree damage continues into
  early this evening. Wind Advisory remains valid.

* Cloudy with scattered showers thru midnight, then clearing
  but with west breezes 25-35 mph.

Details:

Seasonably-strong, 982 mb low was moving through western MA this
afternoon. Ahead of it in a region of pretty strong low-level
convergence is a line of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms
mainly in Worcester County on northward into NH. CAPE values are
highest in northern/northeast MA at around 1000 J/kg, which is also
where the more active corridor of CG/CC flashes are. We don`t expect
severe weather to develop as this activity lifts off toward the ENE
over the next couple of hours. Risk for any thunderstorms after 6 PM
then becomes essentially nil, having pulled away into NH.

It`s otherwise a partly to mostly cloudy day but also rather breezy.
SW gusts have been in the 25-35 mph range commonly, but have been
punching into the 40-45 mph range over Cape Cod and the Islands
where a Wind Advisory was posted earlier. There`s been a couple
reports of trees downed in the Edgartown and Dartmouth, MA
areas. Winds over southeast New England have been on the uptick
especially of recent, and the core of a 45-50 kt 975 mb SW low-
level jet is expected to pass through this area during the late
afternoon to early evening. Strongest WSW gusts mainly over the
Islands but we could see gusts in the 45-50 mph range along the
South Coast, Cape and Islands thru 7 PM, then tend to decrease
in speed thereafter. Minor instances of tree damage could occur
in the strongest winds given that trees have a full canopy of
leaves, but significant wind impacts aren`t anticipated.

Conditions should turn less active by early this evening, although
we`ll still be dealing with cloud cover and scattered showers thru
midnight, along with WNW breezes 25-30 mph. This occurs as the upper
level trough and associated low-level cold advection develops with
wraparound showers as sfc low pulls into northern New England.
Showers should come to an end by late evening/midnight but not
expecting downpours. Cloud cover will be slower to shake free of,
but most areas should trend to mostly clear with decreased WNW
breezes by daybreak. Lows in the mid/upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update:

Key Messages:

* Cloud cover increases again Sunday, along with west breezes 25-30
  mph.

* Cooler than normal highs in the mid 60s, lows mid 40s/near 50.

Sunday:

Cyclonic flow aloft entrenches itself over Southern New England on
Sunday. Although we are looking at dry weather for Sunday, it will
still be cooler than normal, with another period of westerly breezes
redeveloping shortly after daybreak as deeper mixing gets going.
Westerly gusts 25-30 mph are anticipated into Sunday. Late in the
day, a second embedded shortwave disturbance in the broader cyclonic
flow digs into NY. With the cooler air aloft and diurnal heating, it
should again lead to partly to mostly cloudy conditions. So in
general a better day than compared to today (Saturday), but still
cooler than normal to open the month of June with temps in the
mid/upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. Normal highs are in the upper 60s to
mid/upper 70s.

Sunday Night:

Diurnally-generated mostly cloudy conditions then stands to decrease
into Sunday evening. The decreased cloud cover should allow for
better radiational cooling, offset by continued W/WNW winds. Should
see rather widespread lows in the mid 40s Sunday evening, with lows
around 50 for the coastal areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points

 * Warming temperatures Monday and Tuesday

 * Hot and humid conditions Thursday and Friday

 * Dry through much of the week, turning more unsettled toward
   Thursday and Friday.

An upper-level trough remains over the region on Monday, with the
last bit of shortwave energy moving through on Monday
afternoon/evening.  With dry mid-level air, not expecting widespread
shower activity, but expect increased cloud cover during the
afternoon.  850mb temperatures start the day around 3 C, but warm
to near 7 C in the afternoon.  This should help afternoon high
temperatures recover into the low 70s away from the coasts.

The upper-level trough finally moves offshore Tuesday, with a strong
upper-level ridge building in from the west.  High temperatures warm
quickly through midweek, in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday, then
mid to upper 80s by Wednesday and Thursday.  Not out of the question
that some low 90s will show up in our typical hotspots like Norwood
and Bradley, with NBM (QMD) showing moderate probabilities around
50% for 90F+.  Southerly surface flow will help dewpoints climb
through the week, reaching the upper 50s to low 60s on Wednesday,
then low to mid-60s on Thursday.  If you are looking for somewhere
to stay cool, the south coast and Islands will have highs in the 70s
due to the cold ocean waters still in the 50s.

As for precipitation this week, the upper-level ridge will suppress
precipitation chances until late in the week as it begins to dampen
and flow aloft becomes more zonal.  Unfortunately, the rain chances
continue to increase next weekend as guidance hints at a shortwave
exiting the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update:

Tonight: High confidence.

BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR ceilings thru 04z with periods of showers,
then showers taper off and ceilings trend to VFR second half of
the night. Gusty WSW/WNW winds 25-35 kt thru 03z, then decreases
and becomes 15-25 kt overnight.

Sunday and Sunday Night: High confidence.

VFR. West winds 10-15 kt with gusts 23-28 kt 13-22z, then gusts
decrease after 22z and continue to decrease overnight.

BOS TAF...Moderate confidence. BKN VFR/MVFR ceilings with gusty
westerly winds around 30-35 kt 00z-04z. Periods SCT SHRA
00-04z, then improving to VFR.

BDL TAF...Moderate confidence. W winds 15-18 kt with upper
20s-kt gusts then decrease late tonight.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Gale warnings continue thru late this evening on southern
waters, as southerly gusts should continue to run in the 35-45
kt range on these waters with rough seas. Winds through this
afternoon should trend comparatively lighter (25-30 kt) on the
eastern waters, with a windshift to W around 25-30 kt on all
waters tonight. The gale warnings will eventually need to be
downshifted to small craft advisories, and all small craft
headlines will likely need to be extended into Sunday with
westerly winds 25-30 kt.

Secondly, while it will be far from an ideal beach day either
the rest of today and on Sunday, the stronger winds and
elevated seas will lead to a high risk for rip currents on the
Islands. Rip Current Statements have been issued for the rest of
today and into Sunday. Those who are venturing to the beach
should swim near lifeguards and be aware of the potential for
rip currents.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for MAZ023-024.
RI...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for RIZ005-007-008.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for RIZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-
     231-251.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232>237-
     254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ250.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/KP
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...Loconto/Dooley/KP
MARINE...Loconto/KP