Torrington, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

719
FXUS61 KALY 310333
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1133 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will bring moderate to heavy rain late
tonight into Saturday morning, tapering to showers Saturday
afternoon. Breezy and unseasonably cool conditions will
continue into Sunday, with a few passing showers possible. Dry
and much warmer weather arrives by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

- Increasing chances for heavy rain late tonight for areas south
  and east of Albany.

Discussion:
.UPDATE...Other than some widely scattered showers near the
Rensselaer/Columbia/Berkshire border along a stalled front, dry
conditions in place early this evening. Based on radar and
trends in the latest CAMs, widespread rainfall is still expected
to hold off until after midnight developing from SW to NE.
Embedded convection along and east of the cyclone track will
enhance rainfall rates, which are expected to be heaviest for
areas just south/east of Albany. Made some minor adjustments to
timing, but overall forecast is on track with total rainfall of
1-3" from around Albany east through Saturday.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0311]...Isolated/scattered evening showers
across southeast areas in the vicinity of stalled frontal
system, followed by increasing surge of moderate to heavy rain
from south to north after 2 AM as developing storm system over
Ohio Valley tracks east/northeast toward NJ. Although compact in
size, the storm system forecast track has shifted north/west
from previous days, with greatest upper level forcing
(deformation/F-Gen and convergence) occurring from the southeast
Catskills to areas near/just south/east of the NY Capital
Region into southern VT. Within these areas, a band (or smaller
bandlets) of moderate to heavy rain with rainfall rates of 0.50
to 1 inch/hour will be possible, especially toward daybreak. A
few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible, especially
prior to daybreak.

The heavy rain will likely lead to some ponding of water in low
lying/poor drainage and urban areas. However, river and flash
flooding look to be isolated threats at this time. See Hydro
discussion for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Moderate to heavy rain continues through Saturday morning for
  areas within and east of the Hudson River Valley.

- Gusty winds (30-40 mph) develop Saturday afternoon in wake of
  storm system and return again Sunday afternoon.

Discussion:

Ongoing band or bands of moderate to heavy rain will continue
Saturday morning around north/west periphery of compact low
tracking across western/central New England. Rainfall rates
0.50-1 inch/hour for a short period will be possible in these
areas, especially near and north of I-90 (and along/east of
I-87). Area of steadiest rain should shift northward affecting
mainly the upper Hudson Valley and southern VT by early
afternoon, with steady rain tapering to showers elsewhere. Some
low topped thunderstorms could develop Saturday afternoon,
mainly across the SE Catskills/mid Hudson Valley and NW CT as
upper level disturbance/cold pool track just south of the
region.

Gusty west/northwest will also develop by midday and continue
through the afternoon in wake of low center passage, with some
gusts possibly reaching 30-40 mph across the Mohawk Valley,
Capital Region and Berkshires. Latest HREF indicates probs for
wind gusts >35 mph of 40-50% in Berkshires, and 50-90%+ across
the eastern Mohawk Valley and Capital Region/NE Catskills.
Temperatures will remain cool Saturday, mainly in the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Cool Saturday night with showers tapering off. However, as
another upper level disturbance tracks across the region Sunday,
additional isolated/scattered rain showers will be possible,
especially for areas near and north of I-90. It will also become
breezy once again with some gusts of 25-35 mph possible. Temps
only reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Showers should taper off Sunday night. Depending on clearing,
some areas could drop into the 30s with some frost potential
across the southern Adirondacks/southern VT and upper Hudson
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message:

- Dry weather with temperatures trending above normal by the
  middle of next week.

Discussion:

Dry weather and much warmer temperatures expected through
midweek, with temperatures possibly reaching well into the 80s
by Wednesday. Heat indices should remain below 90 given
dewpoints only reaching the 50s to around 60.

An approaching cold front could bring showers/thunderstorms
Thursday/Friday, however timing and duration of
shower/thunderstorm threat is uncertain at this time range.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z Sunday...Mid level clouds with VFR conditions in
place to start the period early this evening. However, a strong
storm system will quickly approach from the south bringing
widespread rain starting later this evening into the overnight
hours and lasting into Sat. The threat of heaviest rain and
thunderstorms is from the KPOU-KPSF corridor. Best chance for
TSRA at KPOU looks to be between 07z-11z and at KPSF from around
09z-13z. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate to MVFR once
steadier rain commences, with occasional IFR conditions
developing at all TAF sties late tonight into early Saturday
morning. Even as the heaviest rain ends Saturday morning, light
rain could linger into the afternoon with conditions likely
improving to MVFR during this time. Winds will initially be
variable less than 5 kt, becoming northwest and steadily
increasing to 10-17 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt developing by late
Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As our coastal low/nor`easter rapidly deepens early this
morning and tracks through southern/central New England,
confidence is high that a band of moderate to heavy rainfall
will expand within its northwest quadrant given very strong
dynamics/mid-level convergence that support impressive mid-
level frontogenesis in its deformation zone. Such strong forcing
for ascent will likely result in moderate to high rainfall
rates for a 4 - 6 hour period from 06 - 12 UTC today with
latest CAMs and probabilistic guidance focusing the heavy
rainfall axis from the SE Catskills, Capital Region, the mid-
Hudson Valley, the Taconics into western New England. Current
forecast rainfall amounts in these areas ranges from 1 to 3
inches with a north/west QPF gradient. Heading north and west
of Albany, rainfall amounts decrease to only 0.25 - 0.75".

Warm cloud depths early this morning approach 10kft and with
PWATs around 1.25" and some weak MUCAPE values rising to
100-500 J/kg (mainly south/east of Albany), the moisture rich
environment and weak instability will support efficient warm
rain processes and high rainfall rates. 00Z/HREFs indicating
high probabilities 60-80% for 3 hourly rainfall amounts at or
above 1 inch between 06 - 12 UTC today with even 20 - 40% chance
for rainfall amounts to exceed 2 inches in 3 hours. While
3-hour FFG in these areas is generally 2.5-3 inches, such high
rainfall rates will likely support some minor poor drainage/urban
flooding. With 850-300hPa wind vectors around 30kts and
parallel to the forward propagating corfidi vector, heavy rain
bands could train over a given area early this morning resulting
in isolated flash flooding.

As for rivers, current forecasts suggest some action stages
(Hoosic River @ Williamstown, Walloomsac River @ Bennington,
Housatonic River @ Stevenson Dam). Should rainfall amounts reach
3 inches or greater, some of these points could reach minor
flood stage, so trends will be watched closely.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Speck
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/Speciale