Stamford, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

792
FXUS61 KOKX 311442
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1042 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly moves across the region early this morning,
stalling to the south this afternoon. A wave of low pressure travels
along the front impacting the area this afternoon into Friday
morning. High pressure builds in behind the exiting system late
Friday and remains in control through Saturday night. High
pressure remains nearby through the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Points:

* A FLOOD WATCH is in effect from 2pm this afternoon until 8am Fri.

* A period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible this
  afternoon into early tonight night. A widespread 1.5-3 inches of
  rainfall is likely, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall rates
  could exceed 2+ inches across part of the area.

A frontal boundary is slowly sagging south through the area early
this morning and is expected to stall nearby to the south this
afternoon. Simultaneously, a frontal wave will develop near the
Delmarva region and track eastward to our southwest this afternoon.
The development of this low pressure wave will be aided by its
location in the right entrance region of a jet streak located to our
north. By daybreak Friday, this frontal wave will begin a
progressive exit offshore to our southeast.

A Flood Watch will take effect this afternoon and remain in place
through Friday morning for the window of heaviest rainfall
anticipated. Expected rainfall across the area will be around 1.5 to
3 inches. Isolated amounts of up to 5 inches are possible. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 inches are likely across the area. Rainfall rates could
exceed 2"/hr across parts of Long Island, NYC, and Union, Essex, &
Hudson counties. 00Z CAMs bring higher instability to these southern
areas this afternoon and evening. MUCAPE here may range from 1,000-
2,000 J/kg this afternoon and evening before quickly dropping off.
While less instability is expected for areas north, 0-6 km Bulk
Shear across the entire CWA could range from 50-70 kt, which is
enough to anticipate convection anywhere today. Though, still the
best chances for this are to the south. The anticipated convection
lines up with the best window for the highest rainfall rates, which
may lie between 2pm to midnight today. Tall skinny CAPE profiles
support this. PWATs should range from 2 to 2.5 inches, which is
anomalously high.

The stalled front to our south will begin to push further away to
our south into late Thursday night as a frontal wave starts to
progressively exit to our southeast. This leads to heavy rainfall
tapering NW to SE due to lack of forcing and loss of instability.
Area-wide showers may still linger into late Thursday night, but
will no longer be intense. However, should any areas experience
flooding prior to this, the additional rainfall may only prolong
flooding. Rainfall will begin to taper altogether NW to SE by
daybreak Friday.

A 30-40 kt NE/ENE-oriented LLJ may enhance winds late Thursday into
Thursday night with winds gusting 25 to 35 mph.

Temperatures will be cooler today with highs topping off in the
mid/low 80s for areas south and only reaching the mid/upper 70s for
northern interior locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A wave of low pressure will exit progressively out to sea to our
southeast early on Friday. This will lead to rainfall tapering NW to
SE Friday morning. Most should be dry by Friday afternoon. Any
lingering showers into the afternoon would likely be for far
southeastern locations of Suffolk and New London counties.

High pressure builds in late Friday and will then remain in control
through Saturday night. This will lead to clear skies by Friday
night with plenty of sunshine on Saturday. Abnormally cool
temperatures on Friday with highs in the mid/low 70s could lead
to possible record minimum high temperatures being broken or
tied. Saturday may see a few return to the low 80s, but fair
weather for the start of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control through the second half of the
weekend and into the first half of next week. A quasi-zonal regime
aloft will take shape with a low amplitude trough developing in the
Midwest and the Ohio valley Monday and Tuesday. This feature should
not draw close enough to result in any sensible weather change until
mid week the earliest, towards Wednesday. Thus look for dry
conditions through at least Tuesday night and seasonable
temperatures throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front slowly moves in and stalls over the region today,
before pushing just to the south tonight.

Generally VFR conditions prevail through this morning. Cannot rule
out showers. This afternoon showers / rain become more
widespread with a PROB30 group for TSRA. Flight categories this
afternoon and early this evening will be mostly MVFR with
pockets of IFR vsbys in any heavier rain or thunderstorms. IFR
cigs are more likely towards 00z. Rain continues through the
night with the steadiest / heaviest rain subsiding towards 04z
at most terminals. A lighter rain prevails for the remainder of
tonight.

An easterly flow picks up today to around 10kt. The winds increase
further after 00z Friday, with gusts towards and after 04z
Saturday.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There remains uncertainty in the timing of gusts arriving after 00z
out of the E/NE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: Mainly MVFR in the morning as showers end early with winds
NE10-17g25kt. VFR develops in the afternoon.

Saturday: VFR. NE winds gusts 15-20 kt early, diminishing by
afternoon.

Sunday-Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds on all waters with waves on ocean waters are expected to climb
today, reaching SCA criteria by this evening and remaining so
through Friday evening. A few isolated gale-force gusts are
possible on Friday. A SCA is issued for all waters starting late
tonight through Friday evening. Winds are then expected to drop
below 25 kt early Friday night, but 5 ft waves could linger
through early Saturday morning on ocean waters. Thereafter, all
waters will be below SCA criteria under high pressure Saturday
into Saturday night.

Sub advisory conditions take place on the coastal waters for the
second half of the weekend and into the first half of next week with
a light pressure gradient due to a high pressure regime remaining in
control.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
* Flood Watch in effect from 2pm today through 8am Friday.

A widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected this
afternoon into Friday. Rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 3 inches with
localized amounts up to 5 inches across the southern portions of
the CWA will be possible. Rainfall rates could exceed 2+ inches
per hour.

WPC has outlined the entire region in a slight risk of excessive
rainfall for much of the area, with a moderate risk for NE NJ.
Urban, poor drainage and riverine flash flooding will be possible.

Dry weather returns Friday night with no hydrologic concerns through
early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is an overall low rip current risk for ocean beaches today
due to a 1-3 ft S/SE swell and 1 to 2 ft wind waves. Rip
currents likely increase to high by Friday given increased
waves, 5 ft surf height, and a persistent 15-25kt E/NE flow.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
     Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday
     morning for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday
     morning for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday
     morning for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$