Shelton, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

169
FXUS61 KOKX 240831
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
331 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure departs as a surface high builds
from the west today into tonight. Weak low pressure will pass to
the southwest while a weak cold front moves through on Christmas Day,
with high pressure briefly returning at night. Another low will
pass to the south from Friday into Saturday, followed by
another frontal system late Saturday into Sunday. High pressure then
returns for Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Black ice possible early today as temperatures remain near or just
  below freezing and and dewpoints remain fairly high.

* A dry, breezy day in store with near seasonable temperatures.

Surface high pressure begins to build into the area behind a
departing low pressure off the New England coast.  Wet roads from
yesterday`s precipitation are still lingering on area roads, and with
temperatures around freezing black ice is likely early this morning
especially across the interior. An SPS may be needed for this area
closer to daybreak if temperatures drop into the upper 20s/lower
30s. Otherwise, a drier airmass will overspread the area today,
with a pressure gradient intact and northwest winds gusting at times
close to or just over 30mph. Clouds will be on the decrease as the
high builds over the region, and winds will slacken this afternoon
as the pressure gradient relaxes.

For tonight, winds shift southerly as the high moves offshore.
Clouds will be on the increase once again as a weak upper
disturbance approaches.  Low temperatures tonight will be near
normal, in the upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Christmas Day looks mainly dry, with a mid level wave/sfc trough
quickly moving through the region. Have maintained a slight chance
for a brief late morning rain/snow shower across
Long Island, NYC, and areas north and east. No accumulation expected.
Highs will once again be in the lower 40s. Winds shift from SW to NW
in the afternoon with the cold fropa, with the main push of colder
air coming at night. Low temps Thu night will range from the lower
20s in the NYC metro area and surrounding suburbs, to the teens
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
What`s Changed: There have been no significant changes to the
forecast. Confidence continues to increase in a period of
accumulating snowfall from Friday afternoon into Saturday.


Key Points:

* An accumulating, plowable snowfall is becoming more likely
  Friday afternoon into Saturday. Winter weather headlines may
  be needed later today or tonight for portions of the area.

* Chances for light snow or a wintry mix changing to rain
  Sunday into early Monday.

There has not been much change in the forecast thinking this
update.  A series of disturbances will impact the region,
resulting in a period of unsettled weather in the long term.
Global models and their associated ensemble systems continue to
highlight weak upper ridging over the Northeast with a shortwave
quickly passing through late Friday into Saturday. Brief upper
ridging then builds in Sunday before a stronger closed low
approaches the northeast into early next week.

At the surface, a cold high pressure centered over Quebec heads
to the east as a surface low traverses the OH Valley, through
PA and generally south of the local forecast area by 12Z
Saturday. There continues to be some uncertainty on the storm
track with this system, as the guidance continues to shift north
and south from cycle to cycle. The ultimate track will
determine both precipitation types (rain/snow) and
accumulations, though an all snow event is looking more
probable for the entire CWA.

Given the model consensus has the local area on the north side
of the system, with cold air already in place via the
departing surface high, thermal profiles are suggestive of a
period of decent snow growth from late Friday into early
Saturday across much of the CWA. Best h7 frontogenetic forcing
appears from NYC on south by 06Z Saturday, though this feature
continues to wiggle with the sfc low track. One noticeable
difference with the latest guidance is that ensemble based model
QPF (WPC WSE in particular) has trended down bit more with the
00Z guidance suite, with now a widespread 0.25 to 0.6" across
the area, with highest amounts from NYC on west and south There
does appear to be a moisture connection to the system currently
heading toward the West Coast, with PWATs of 0.5" - 1.0" inbound
by late Friday.

All said, this should translate into at least an advisory level
snowfall of 2-5" for much of the CWA Friday into Saturday, with
a chance, though lowered as of this update, of warning criteria
snow (6+") especially north and west of NYC. This would occur
where any banding can set up for a period of time. Have elected
to hold off on any winter weather watches at this time given the
00Z model trends and decreasing WPC WSO that now depicts a
10-30% of exceeding 6" across NENJ, SW CT and the LoHud Valley.
Depending on trends as we get closer, winter weather watches, or
advisories may be needed for these areas.

Thereafter, low pressure with a cold front quickly approaches on
Sunday. This system is currently forecast to track northwest,
well inland of the region, with the precipitation being mainly a
snow/rain/ice mix, particularly for LoHud and interior S CT
Saturday evening. The winter precipitation will then go over
to all rain for a time Sunday. Dry weather looks to then return
late Monday after the frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front moves through this morning. High pressure builds in
from the west behind it.

Mainly VFR. A few terminals still seeing lingering MVFR cigs w/
mist to start the early morning. This should erode by 10Z or
so, then VFR through the TAF period. Winds increase out of the
west, then northwesterly toward daybreak. Speeds pick up
through the morning push, increasing to 15-20g25-35kt by 15Z,
which then persists through much of the day. Winds begin to
lighten by late afternoon, and gusts abate into the early
evening. Flow goes light and variable tonight, before light SW
becomes established into Thu AM.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated gusts above 35 kt possible late this morning and early
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Lgt and vrb winds.

Thursday: VFR.

Friday: VFR in the morning, becoming IFR w/snow later in the
afternoon and evening. IFR w/ snow Friday night.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR with AM snow. Improving to VFR by afternoon.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR with rain likely.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect through 11Z for the ocean waters, with W
flow gusting to 30 kt and seas building to 4-7 ft early this
morning. Gale warning then goes into effect, with NW flow
gusting to 35 kt, and seas peaking at 5-8 ft. On the non ocean
waters, SCA also remains in effect, running through this
evening,for NW winds gusting to 30 kt.

Conditions quickly subside late this afternoon as high pressure
builds from the west.

SCA cond should return to the ocean waters after a cold frontal
passage Thu afternoon and continue into Thu night, with NW flow
gusting to 25-30 kt and seas 4-6 ft. The non ocean waters lay
also see gusts to 25-30 kt late Thu afternoon into Thu evening.
Some 5-ft seas may linger on the outer ocean waters Fri morning.

Another low will pass near the waters Fri-Sat with SCA conditions
developing on the ocean waters Fri night, and continuing into Sat.
Wind gusts/seas fall below advisory levels Sat evening as high
pressure briefly builds in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Increasing E flow Fri night into Sat will lead to higher total
water levels during that time. Moon phase will be at first
quarter so astronomical tides will not be as great a contributor
as with a full/new moon, and raw model guidance at that time
range falls well short of flood thresholds. Adding an additional
1/2 ft to account for model tendency to play catch-up at longer
lead times results in water levels getting close to but still
remaining below minor flood thresholds with the high tide cycles
late Fri night and Sat afternoon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DBR
HYDROLOGY...DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...