Shelton, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

289
FXUS61 KOKX 290728
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
328 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was issued for the eastern Long Island
Sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays and the ocean waters from Moriches
Inlet to Montauk out 20 NM.

A Special Weather Statement for patchy dense fog was issued for
portions of southern CT and eastern Long Island.

No changes were made to the Extreme Heat Watch.

Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, north and
west of NYC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patchy dense fog this morning.

2) Dangerous heat is possible mid to late week, potentially into
Saturday.

3) Potential for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Patchy dense fog is being observed across portions
of southern CT and eastern Long Island. This is expected to last
through the early morning hours before daytime heating helps to
dissipate it. An SPS has been issued until 9 AM.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Heights start to rise aloft today as a strong upper level ridge
begins to build in from the west. While some differences are still
seen in the latest guidance in terms of amplification of this ridge,
the general consensus of peaking between 592-594dam would be over
the 90th percentile of observed 500mb heights for the OKX Sounding.
At the surface, high pressure strengthens over the area through
Tuesday and then shifts just offshore, basically remaining in
control through the weekend. With this pattern in place, and a
modified subtropical airmass, there is potential for a prolonged
period of dangerous heat mid to late week. There have been no
changes to the Extreme Heat Watch since it was issued on Sunday.

A few things that still need to be ironed out, with one of the
more important factors being dewpoints as is typical this far
out. Given ambient temperatures in most inland areas are
expected to already be near 100, forecast dewpoints will likely
have more impact on heat headlines (Warning vs Advisory) for
coastal areas like southeast CT and Long Island. Large spread in
dewpoints are seen in the latest NBM with upwards of a 10-12
degree difference between the 10th and 90th and a 5-7 degree
difference between the 25th and 75th. The LREF seems more
reasonable with a lower spread, closer to 3 to 5 degree
difference (between 25th and 75th percentile), with the spread
being between the upper 60s and lower 70s. Did lower forecast dewpoints
slightly each afternoon to reflect this uncertainty. Even with
this, still seeing forecast Heat Index values between 105 and
110 for most. This set up will also limit overnight relief with
lows potentially as high as the upper 70s to lower 80s for most.
This could be a dangerous situation especially for sensitive
groups.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Given our placement on the northern periphery of the upper level
ridge, we are set up for potential convection/MCSs rounding the base
of the ridge. While this is common in this pattern, there is usually
a lot of uncertainty in timing, placement and strength of this
activity. This is being seen currently with large spread in the
latest guidance. However, guidance is currently hinting at
activity Tuesday and Wednesday. Most notably the 00z 6/29 HRRR,
FV3 and ARW showing a decaying MCS moving in from the northwest
Tuesday afternoon. The SPC has kept the marginal severe risk
northwest of our area. If any activity is approaching, it will
likely be moving into an unfavorable environment with very
little instability.

Additional thunderstorm activity is possible on Wednesday, with
the SPC expanding the marginal risk through the Lower Hudson
Valley. There is a bit more uncertainty in the guidance for
this time frame with difference in strength/existence of a
shortwave moving through and its ability to weaken the ridge.
This would be a high instability, weak shear situation with
uncertainty in a trigger. This will have to be monitored by
subsequent shifts.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves over and eventually to the south of the region
during the TAF period.

Dry conditions through the TAF period. Aside from some areas of
fog/stratus, VFR conditions are expected. These areas of fog/stratus
will be mainly north and east of NYC terminals for late at night
into the early morning hours. Within the fog/stratus, mainly IFR to
LIFR conditions can be expected with brief VLIFR possible as well.

Winds are expected to remain at or under 10 kts through the TAF
period. Variable wind direction into this morning will eventually
become more southerly thereafter through the remainder of the TAF
period.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

IFR to LIFR possible this morning mainly in window of 08-12Z with
fog/stratus.

Some fluctuation between categories is quite possible into early
this morning.

Chance that KJFK fog and stratus this morning does not develop.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.Late Tonight: Mainly VFR, but chances for IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus
east of NYC terminals, more likely at KGON.

.Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but chances for IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus east
of NYC terminals, more likely at KGON for early morning. Also, brief
localized MVFR or lower possible in late day into nighttime showers
or thunderstorms. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly along the coast,
afternoon into night.

.Wednesday: Mainly VFR, but brief localized MVFR or lower possible
in late day into nighttime showers or thunderstorms. SW wind gusts
15-20 kt mainly along the coast, afternoon into evening.

.Thursday: VFR.

.Friday: Mainly VFR, but chances for MVFR or lower with chances of
showers and thunderstorms, especially towards the evening. Some SW-
NW wind gusts 15-20 kt are possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was issued for the eastern Long Island
Sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays and the ocean waters from Moriches
Inlet to Montauk out 20 NM. The dense fog is expected to dissipate
by mid morning.

Mainly sub-Small Craft Advisory criteria expected through the
weekend. There will just likely be a brief period Tuesday afternoon
and then again Wednesday into Wednesday night when a S/SW flow will
likely gust up to 25+ kt. During the Wednesday/Wednesday night
period the ocean seas will also likely reach 5 to 6 ft.

Rip Currents: No changes to the rip current forecast. Light
winds and a 1-2 ft swell will lead to a low risk of rip activity
today. A S/SW flow increases on Tuesday and will raise the risk
to moderate with the developing wind wave.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 1:
KEWR: 100/1963
KBDR: 95/1963
KNYC: 100/1901
KLGA: 97/2018
KJFK: 102/1963
KISP: 96/1964

July 2:
KEWR: 102/1966
KBDR: 100/1966
KNYC: 100/1966
KLGA: 101/1966
KJFK: 101/1966
KISP: 99/1966

July 3:
KEWR: 105/1966
KBDR: 99/1966
KNYC: 103/1966
KLGA: 107/1966
KJFK: 104/1966
KISP: 104/1966


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 1:
KEWR: 77/2018
KBDR: 73/2013
KNYC: 79/2018
KLGA: 79/2018
KJFK: 75/1968
KISP: 73/2025

July 2:
KEWR: 79/2022
KBDR: 73/2022
KNYC: 82/1901
KLGA: 78/2002
KJFK: 74/2018
KISP: 74/2014

July 3:
KEWR: 82/2002
KBDR: 75/2002
KNYC: 82/2002
KLGA: 81/1966
KJFK: 78/2002
KISP: 76/2018

July 4:
KEWR: 81/2002
KBDR: 80/2002
KNYC: 81/2002
KLGA: 82/1999
KJFK: 80/2002
KISP: 76/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332-
     340-350.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JT