Riverside, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

462
FXUS61 KOKX 100238
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1038 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will lift a frontal boundary north through
the area tonight into Tuesday morning, with a cold front following
Tuesday evening. High pressure then builds in on Wednesday and
remains near the region through Thursday. Meanwhile low pressure
passing well to the north will send a cold front through the
region late Thursday night into early Friday. The front then
becomes nearly stationary into the beginning of next week, with a
series of lows moving along the stalled front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Updated the forecast through tonight to add areas of fog with
visibilities 1 1/2 to 2 miles, which may lower and become
locally dense overnight. Also, with drizzle being reported added
that to the weather as well.

Heights gradually fall aloft as a broad upper level trough
approaches. At the surface, a wave of low pressure is approaching
from the south along a frontal boundary. This boundary will move
north through the area tonight into Tuesday morning.

Shower activity is ongoing mainly portions of the Lower Hudson
Valley into Connecticut. And this activity should continue to
decrease through the evening as an embedded shortwave moves
east of the area. However, given the easterly flow and weak
overall lift, some drizzle and or sprinkle activity could
continue through the night. Also, in combination with the
onshore component of the flow, the pressure gradient weakens
quite a bit tonight. This gives increased confidence in fog,
especially because some is being observed along the coast
already. Difficult to say at this time exactly how low the
visibility will get, but dense fog is definitely not out of the
question.

The main show in the near term will be heavy downpours Tuesday
morning into the early afternoon. The aforementioned broad
upper level trough continues approaching and more embedded
shortwaves will move into the area. By this time, the frontal
boundary will be north of the area and pwats across the southern
half of the area will surge to 1.75 to 1.90 inches. According
to SPC Sounding Climatology, this is well above the 90th
percentile for June 10th and right around the daily max that has
been observed. Along with this available moisture, there is
also deep lift with continued falling height and an upper level
jet streak placing us right under the right rear quadrant. All
of this will lead to widespread moderate showers with embedded
heavy downpours. Timing for this is mainly 5am to 1pm for NYC
north and west and then 7am to 4pm for locations north and east
of NYC. At this time there is just an isolated threat for flash
flooding, with the main threat being minor poor drainage
flooding. See Hydrology section below. Have lowered thunder
chances down to slight chance with the morning activity. All
instability appears to be elevated and weak and really only
expecting some isolated rumbles of thunder. Additionally, the
bulk of the CAPE profile looks to be below -10C.

The rest of the day then looks mostly dry, with maybe some
lingering isolated lighter showers. There will however likely
be isolated showers/thunderstorms when the cold front moves
through in the evening. This will depend on how well we can
clear out and how unstable we can get in the afternoon ahead of
the front. The CAMs are hinting at clearing out enough and even
reaching 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the Lower Hudson Valley.
This aligns with the model reflectivity fields showing a few
cells pop up along the cold front, also mainly in the Lower
Hudson Valley. This activity should be really isolated and the
lack of moisture will likely work against development. Pwats
drop pretty quick in the afternoon once the morning showers move
east. By 00z pwats likely drop down to 1 inch or lower. At this
time severe weather is not expected, but given decent shear it
can not be completely ruled out yet.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds in thereafter leading to dry
conditions and a warming trend. The flow aloft becomes zonal
with some slight height rises. Stuck close to the NBM for this
period, with just a slight upward adjustment with temperatures
for the interior on Wednesday. Also lowered Td a bit given the
NBM high bias for drier regimes.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term forecast period will be dominated by a mid and
upper level trough, mainly across eastern Canada, and into
Northern New England, with nearly zonal flow across the Midwest,
and into the Northeast, and Mid Atlantic region. Global
guidance is fairly similar through the extended period. A cold
front is forecast to move through the region late Thursday night
into early Friday morning, and then become nearly stationary to
the south of the area, through the Mid Atlantic region and the
Delmarva, into early next week. There is some uncertainty as to
how far south the frontal boundary will setup. The will affect
the track of waves of low pressure that are forecast to track
along the boundary. And some guidance that the front may drift
farther south late in the weekend into early next week. Also,
the placement of the boundary will affect temperatures, mainly
Saturday through Monday, with more uncertainty in highs and low
seen in the spread of possibilities with the NBM guidance. As a
result of the uncertainty, and no targets of opportunity, have
stayed close to the NBM deterministic guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly LIFR-IFR conditions are expected to persist overnight in
response to a warm frontal boundary very slowly moving through the
area. A light onshore flow will also contribute to the development
of fog overnight, possibly dense with visibilities 1/2 SM or less.

Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to develop right around
the morning push moving from west to east, with the heaviest
activity between about 14-18Z. Rainfall may be heavy at times
maintaining reduced visibilities across the airspace. As the
activity diminishes into the afternoon, ceilings and visibilities
will improve to MVFR, followed by improvement to VFR by late in the
day. A cold front then approaches Tuesday evening, but convective
activity is not expected to be as widespread as the broken line of
convection is currently forecast to weaken.

Winds will primarily be light from the east to east-southeast until
the front approaches from the west Tuesday evening, allowing winds
to veer to the west-southwest.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible throughout the entire TAF period for changing
flight categories especially with ongoing shower and drizzle
activity.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: VFR with SW-W winds.

Wednesday - Thursday: VFR with gusty W flow.

Friday - Saturday: VFR except in scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for all waters as
confidence in 1 mile or less visibilities remains high. For
now, the hazard is in effect until 6AM Tuesday morning, but it
may need to be extended into Tuesday morning. And with the dense
fog advisory added areas of dense fog to the weather.

Winds and waves likely remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Wednesday. There is a brief period late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning where the eastern ocean waters
could see 5 ft seas.

With a weak pressure gradient force expected across the forecast
waters, as a frontal boundary remains in the vicinity of the ocean
waters, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday morning through the early
afternoon will bring moderate to locally heavy downpours to the
area. While average total rainfall is expected to be between
0.50 and 1.00 inches, any isolated stronger shower or
thunderstorm has the potential to put down 0.75 to 1 inch in an
hour. The WPC continues to highlight the area in a marginal risk
and the biggest threat is minor urban and poor drainage
flooding, with an isolated threat for flash flooding.

No hydrologic impacts are expected Tuesday night through next
Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip current development remains through this
evening.

For the ocean beaches the moderate risk for the development of
rip currents remains for Tuesday. However, with increasing south
to southwest winds and building surf across the southeastern
Suffolk ocean beaches the risk may be increased to high.

For Wednesday: the moderate rip current development risk
remains for the ocean beaches of New York City, and Nassau
county. There is a chance that the threat increases to high for
the Nassau ocean beaches with increasing southerly flow. And
for the Suffolk county ocean beaches the rip current risk is
forecast to be high.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...