Orange, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

451
FXUS61 KOKX 150533
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1233 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Northeast will gradually shift west into
Friday as one area of low pressure approaches the Canadian
Maritimes and another passes to the south of the Mid Atlantic
coast. A second area of high pressure then builds in from the
west for the weekend, while low pressure near the Canadian
Maritimes weakens and heads out to sea. A cold front moves
through on Monday, with weak high pressure building in thereafter.
A complex frontal system could potentially impact the area
sometime mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Increased cloud cover based on stlt. Otherwise, the fcst was on
track. Dry weather will continue for at least the next several
days. Blocking over the western North Atlantic will force an
upper low over the Ohio Valley tonight to take a southeast track
toward the Mid Atlantic coast, where a secondary surface low
will develop. This will keep the area well north and east of the
rain shield. However, high level clouds associated with the
system will continue to overspread the area with a cloudy night.
This will impact radiational cooling, but there is some
uncertainty as to the extent. Lows are forecast to range from
the upper 20s well inland, to around 40 across the NYC metro.
Preferred the warmer NBM over the MOS due to the cloud cover. No
frost expected, at least not widespread, as winds veer to the
north with drier air continuing to filter into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Low pressure rapidly deepens tracking away from the Mid Atlantic
coast on Friday, while low pressure approaching the Canadian
Maritimes also continues to deepen. This will result in a
strengthening NW flow (gusts up to 20 mph) and very dry
conditions on Friday. Min RH values are forecast to be in the 20
to 30 percent range. Leaned toward the drier MOS dew points,
with some reflection of the NBM. See fire weather section below
for fire weather threat.

Low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes begins to weaken on
Saturday, while high pressure builds in from the west. NW winds
look to be a bit stronger with gusts up to 25 mph expected.
Temperatures will gradually warm up from the mid and upper 50s
on Friday, to around 60 on Saturday, which is about 5 degrees
above normal. Lows Saturday morning will generally be in the
lower to mid 30s inland, to around 40 at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points

*Mostly dry conditions into the middle of next week.

*Potential for a frontal system to bring widespread rainfall
sometime mid to late next week.

*Above normal temperatures through the forecast period

An upper level ridge gradually builds in through Sunday as high
pressure centered west of the area remains in control and slides
south. A shortwave and associated cold front move through on Monday,
but with limited moisture the front will likely pass through dry.
Have just slight chance PoPs north and east of NYC. Weakened high
pressure reestablishes itself over the area for Tuesday into at
least the first half of Wednesday.

A complex frontal system looks to potentially impact the area
sometime mid to late next week. There is general agreement on this
from the global models, but typical timing/location/strength
differences remain since we are a week or so out. A large closed
upper level low will lift towards the Great Lakes along with the
associated surface low. A wave of low pressure looks to form
over/near the area along the cold front. The latest GFS and Canadian
have similar timing, with the ECMWF lagging behind about 24 hours.
Capped PoPs at chance (~40%) for now. The latest NBM has a 50-60%
chance of seeing at least 0.25 inches of rainfall over any 48 hour
period mid to late next week. This chance has slowly been increasing
over the last several runs of the NBM.

Temperatures will be above normal each day, with highs in the upper
50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure centered over eastern Canada remains stationary as
low pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast well south of the
region today.

VFR with NE/VRB winds backing to NW by the end of the morning
push. Speeds increasing to 10-15G20KT this afternoon. Gusts
subside after 00Z for some terminals this evening but the NW
flow remains.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts might be only occasional, especially at night.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Tonight - Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt aft 12Z
Sat.

Sunday...VFR.

Monday...VFR with strong NW flow.

Tuesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions continue through Friday afternoon with
NW winds increasing Friday night with possible gusts to around
25kt, especially on the ocean water, through Saturday. An
easterly swell will keep seas on the ocean 3 to 4 ft.

Winds and waves look to remain below SCA criteria Saturday
night through the middle of next week for the most part. There
is potential for some 25 kt gusts over the ocean waters with a
cold frontal passage on Monday. A frontal system may then bring
SCA conditions sometime mid to late next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue through Saturday along with gusty
NW winds. In fact, min RH values Friday and Saturday will be
below 30 percent. NW winds also strengthen during this time with
gusts up to 25 mph possible on Saturday. In collaboration with
state land managers and adjacent WFOs, have issued a Red Flag
Warning for CT on Friday, with a Fire Weather Watch for the
Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, NYC, and LI for Saturday. All other
times will be covered by an SPS.
No unscheduled amendments expected.
Minimum relative humidity values will remain low on Sunday, around
30 percent. However, winds will only be around 5 to 10 mph out of
the NW/W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to severe drought conditions exist across the area per
the latest US Drought Monitor. Stream flows are generally below
the 25th percentile of normal for this time of year. There are
no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With an upcoming full moon today, water levels will be on the
rise. Tidal departures needed for minor flooding will be as
little as a couple of tenths to 1/2 ft by today and Saturday.

Offshore low pressure combined with high pressure over the Northeast
coast late this week will help maintain 3-4 ft long period E
swell. This should cause minor coastal flooding during the
morning high tides from today through least Sunday. Flooding
could be moderate in spots along the south shores of Nassau and
Queens this morning and Saturday morning.

Most of the coastline is now under a coastal flood advisory through
this morning`s high tide cycle, with widespread inundation of
1/2 to 1 ft above minor flood thresholds (1.5 to 2.5 ft above
MHHW) expected. Flooding along the SE CT coastline, on the north
fork of Long Island and in Peconic Bay, also also the more
sheltered Great South Bay locations of Suffolk, looks to be only
spotty, with inundation mostly below minor thresholds but still
1 to 2 ft above MHHW, so limited to the most vulnerable spots
right along the shoreline.

Based on latest guidance, the advisories will probably need to
include Saturday`s and Sunday`s morning high tide cycles.
Flooding should be less widespread for Monday morning.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
     evening for CTZ005>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     CTZ009-010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ211>213.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ072-
     074-075-081-178-179.
NJ...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ006-
     106-108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...