Oakville, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

754
FXUS61 KALY 021948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
348 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching warm front will bring some rain to the
region tonight, which may begin as a wintry mix across high terrain
areas.  Along with much milder temperatures, some additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday.  After a dry day on
Friday, more rain is expected for the weekend with seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

-A period of wintry mix is expected across the high terrain of
 the Adirondacks and southern Greens tonight into early
 Thursday, resulting in locally slippery traveling and walking
 conditions.

Discussion:

As of 348 PM EDT...A strong area of low pressure is moving into
the Upper Mississippi Valley and it will be lifting towards the
Upper Midwest for this evening and towards the Upper Great Lakes
for tonight. Meanwhile, a warm front extending eastward is
moving across the Ohio Valley and will be getting close to the
area by early tomorrow morning. Well ahead of this storm
system, an organized band of steady precip, including embedded
convection with a lot of lightning, is moving across western NY
and western PA, as well as additional activity upstream across
Michigan. This area of precip (forced by warm advection and
isentropic lift) is aided by a strong southerly low level jet
in excess of 60 kts.

Mid and high level clouds having spreading across the area and
most locations are now seeing a thin high overcast in place.
Mostly cloudy skies are expected through the afternoon hours and
it will become overcast for this evening into tonight. Surface
high pressure is located just north of the area over Quebec and
it will continue to depart off to the east, moving across
Atlantic Canada by tonight.

As the warm front starts to approach from the southwest, the
area of steady precip and embedded thunder will continue across
western and central NY for later today. It probably won`t reach
our area until this evening, so it should be staying dry through
at least 5 or 6 PM. The low levels have been fairly dry with
dewpoints in the single digits and teens, so it will take a
little while to increase the low level moisture. The first area
to see precip across our area will likely be the western
Adirondacks and perhaps the western Mohawk Valley by the early
evening hours.

The steady precip will spread from southwest to northeast across
the area. Most areas will start seeing precip between 6pm and
8pm and there will be fairly steady precip through about 3 am
or so. Initially, surface temps over northern and high terrain
areas will be rather cold and may even fall a bit with the onset
of precip due to wet-bulbing, with evening temps near freezing
in these high terrain areas. Temps aloft will also start fairly
cold (below freezing at least) and so this will allow precip to
briefly begin as a period of snow over the Adirondacks. Any snow
will be short-lived, as warming temps aloft will quickly change
precip to sleet and then freezing rain. Up to an inch of
snow/sleet is possible for the Adirondacks and southern Greens.
Once precip changes to freezing rain, it may linger in some
sheltered mountain locations within the Adirondacks and Greens
through the early morning hours. Most areas will only see about
a tenth of an inch of ice, although locally see a quarter to
third of an inch is possible within the high terrain of the
central and eastern Adirondacks.

Elsewhere, temps will be warm enough for mainly rain. A brief
period of sleet or freezing rain can`t be totally ruled out over
the Catskills or Berkshires and perhaps even a few sleet pellets
into the Capital Region, but little to no wintry precip is
expected for these areas, as temps will be rising thanks to the
strong southerly flow that will be developing. The bulk of the
precip will be central and northern areas, and limited amounts
of precip may be occurring across the mid Hudson Valley and NW
CT, with the best forcing and moisture off to the northwest.

With the strengthening pressure gradient, south to southwest
winds will be breezy by the late night hours, with some gusts in
the 25-40 mph range, especially for northern and high terrain
areas and within the Hudson Valley, where the southerly flow is
channeled.

Considering the thunder upstream, can`t rule out a few rumbles
across the area. Model guidance suggests there will be limited
instability across our area, but can`t rule out some elevated
instability that could bring some rumbles of thunder, especially
for western areas.

Temps will be lowest this evening in the upper 20s to mid 30s,
but will be rising through the overnight hours as the warm front
moves northward. Temps will reach the mid 30s to mid 40s towards
daybreak Thursday, as the warm front starts lifting across the
area from south to north.

Another line of showers and perhaps embedded thunderstorms will
be moving across the area on Thursday morning, along a pre-
frontal trough. All areas should see some additional precip,
especially southern areas, which may have missed out of some of
the overnight activity. Again, instability seems fairly limited,
so thunder threat is probably minimal and severe storm threat is
fairly low. Temps should be rising quickly on Thursday morning
and will be reaching into the mid 50s to mid 60s by early
Thursday afternoon ahead of the main cold front. It will
continue to be fairly breezy, especially if any breaks in the
clouds occur and some better daytime mixing can occur.

The cold front should finally cross by the late in the day, with
an additional broken line of showers, but this looks less
coverage and more brief in duration compared to the earlier
activity. Winds will be switching to the west once the front
crosses from west to east by the early evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be building into the area from the west for
Great Lakes for Thursday night. The frontal boundary will be
stalling to the south across the mid Atlantic States. Some
clearing may start to occur across northern areas for Thursday
night, but many areas may not see significant clearing until
during the day on Friday. While there may be a lingering shower
or two for southern areas on Thursday night, it will be drying
out and no precip is expected on Friday into Friday evening.
Clouds will be increasing by Friday night and some light precip
is expected towards daybreak Saturday.

After lows in the mid 20s to upper 40s on Thursday night, highs
will reach the mid 50s to mid 60s by Friday. Lows will fall back
into the 30s on Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence in widespread rainfall this weekend, with a
  25-60% chance of greater than one inch of rain.

- High confidence in below normal temperatures beginning next
Tuesday.

Discussion:

A slow moving frontal system will be draped across the region
over the weekend. Waves of low pressure will be moving along the
boundary, which will keep steady precip in place for much of the
weekend. POPs are categorical for Sat into Sat night, with
likely POPs on Sunday. Precip will start to taper off by Sunday
night. Latest NBM probabilities show over a 60% chance of 1.00+"
of rain over the Adirondacks this weekend, with values as low as
25% over southern areas. In addition to the precip, it will be
cloudy all weekend. Temps look cooler on Saturday with highs in
the 40s, but may warm into the 50s for valley areas by Sunday.

Early next week, a cold front will be passing through the
region on Sunday night into early Monday. Precip may change to
some snow on the backside before ending across the high terrain
as colder air starts to work into the region and temps fall back
into the 30s.

While it still may be somewhat seasonable on Monday, much colder
air is expected by Tuesday and Wednesday behind a secondary
boundary. Some passing snow showers are expected Tuesday into
Wednesday with this secondary front, especially if a wave of low
pressure develops along this boundary. Temps look below normal
with highs only in the 30s to mid 40s and overnight lows in the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z Thursday...VFR conditions are primarily expected through
the next 6-9 hrs. Conditions will then deteriorate to MVFR after 00z
Thursday as a warm front and precipitation shied approaches the
terminals. A rain/sleet mix remains expected primarily at KPSF/KGFL
for several hours through about 05-08z, before a changeover to all
rain occurs. KALB may see a brief period of sleet mixing with rain
this evening before a changeover to all rain occurs by midnight.
KPOU will see scattered rain showers at first, though it will become
more widespread for a brief period around 03/12z. During this time,
expect MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities, with a low potential
of LIFR conditions due to low ceilings. There is also a low chance
of thunder at all terminals due to the presence of elevated
instability, but did not have enough confidence in direct impacts to
the terminals so left mention out at this time. Expect winds to
increase out of the southeast this afternoon to around 10-15 kts,
with strengthening out of the south tonight into Thursday morning
and gusts around 15-25 kts. LLWS will also briefly impact mainly
KGFL/KPSF through the morning with a nearby 40 kt LLJ.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With a dry air mass in place at low levels, RH values will be
as low as 25 to 40 percent through the late afternoon hours.
However, winds will be fairly light during this time period.
Clouds and RH will be increasing for later today into this
evening as a storm system approaches, with steady precipitation
expected for most areas overnight. Southeast winds will be
increasing by later today and will be gusty overnight,
especially for northwestern areas.

Precipitation will linger into Thursday with some additional
showers possible. The higher RH and precip should limit fire
weather concerns for Thursday. Drier weather will return on
Friday, but RH values will mainly be above 40 percent.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-
     033-041-042-082-083.
     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-033-
     042.
MA...None.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Speck
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis