Norwich, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

030
FXUS61 KOKX 130644
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
244 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front south of the region overnight stalls through
Friday. A weak low pushes along the boundary late Friday night
and pushes through early on Saturday. High pressure off the New
England coast tries to build towards the area Sunday into Monday
as waves of low pressure move along the stalled boundary to our
south. The high weakens on Tuesday allowing the front to begin
returning northward through next Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Cold front is just south of Long Island overnight. Some weak
reflectivity echoes have developed indicating a few light
showers. Coverage expected to remain isolated into early
morning. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions into early morning
hours with abundant mid to high level clouds.

Temperatures overnight will average close to or just
above the seasonal norms with mainly 60s for lows.

Questions remain abound for the day Friday. The cold front
is expected to stall nearby. At the same time high pressure
attempts to ridge down, at least temporary from the northwest
before the next impulse attempts to approach from the west
towards late in the day and evening. Also the upper level jet
gets further downstream to the northeast as the region should
get in-between any mid and upper level support / forcing
mechanisms. Low end chance to slight chance PoPs appear prudent
for the day Friday, although the consensus of NWP guidance keeps
the region dry much of the day. More of an onshore flow is
expected into Friday afternoon with some uncertainty as to how
much the onshore flow can penetrate into western most areas.
With some cloud cover and more of an onshore flow temperatures
should be cooler with mainly upper half of the 70s to lower 80s
for daytime highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
During Friday night with the frontal boundary stalled nearby and
perhaps just south of the area expect disturbances to more or less
ride along the boundary. Occasional showers looks to take place
during Friday night. The column is forecast to saturate further into
later in the overnight and into early Saturday morning. Instability
appears to be limited Friday night into Saturday, thus will carry
high end chance to low end likely PoPs for weather across the region
late Friday night into Saturday morning. During the day Saturday it
doesn`t appear to be a complete washout, as after the disturbance
from the morning gets through most NWP guidance suggests a relative
break or pause in any shower activity. Thus, have included low end
chance PoPs Saturday afternoon. Suffice it to say that the start of
the weekend will feature more in the way of clouds, with a period or
two of unsettled weather with the potential for showers. With the
onshore flow progged to continue on Saturday with a E-ENE wind in
the boundary layer expect temperatures to average below normal. Max
temperatures will likely only reach the upper 60s to perhaps some
lower and middle lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes were made to the long term Saturday night
through next Thursday.

Key Points:

*While there is a chance for showers through the period, it will
not be a complete washout.

*Difficult to time waves of low pressure and moisture interactions
with the stalled boundary to our south will  ultimately determine
when/if showers occur across parts of the  area Saturday night
through early next week.

*The stalled boundary starts retreated northward later Tuesday
through Thursday continuing the chance for showers, possibly a
thunderstorm.

*Temperatures will average below normal Sunday and Monday then
return to more seasonably warm levels Tuesday with potential of
warmer than normal conditions mid to late week.

The region will lie on the southern periphery of the westerlies for
much of the long term period with ridging holding across the
southern US. A frontal boundary will remain stalled across the
Middle Atlantic. The main forecast challenge Saturday night through
Monday will be from difficult to time waves of low pressure on the
stalled front as well as an subtle shortwaves in the middle level
flow. Surface ridging will also try to take hold over the area,
which may limit how much shower activity can develop. Model trends
have been leaning in this direction, especially for Sunday into
Monday with increasing chances for mostly dry conditions. The upper
ridging may start building along the eastern seaboard Tuesday and
Wednesday allowing the boundary to lift back to the north as a warm
front. A more organized shortwave may then start approaching towards
next Thursday which may also bring in another cold front, but this
remains uncertain given it is a week out.

Rainfall amounts and any impacts appear limited at this time with
any greater chance of convection potentially occurring mid week as
conditions warm up and instability starts increasing. There will
likely be adjustments to PoPs and timing of any potential convection
once the mesoscale environment becomes better resolved.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will stall south of the region with an area of low
pressure developing and approaching along it for the TAF period.

VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period. Clouds are
expected to remain mainly broken coverage at mid to high levels.
Clouds lower and thicken after 00Z Sat with potential for MVFR after
06Z Sat as showers become more probable.

Winds initially will be variable direction and near or less than 5
kts. Winds become more E to SE during the day and increase to near
10 kts. Winds remain generally easterly and decrease to near 5 to 7
kts towards end of TAF period but will be variable direction for
some terminals outside of NYC.


 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few brief isolated showers are possible before 00Z Sat.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: Mainly VFR but MVFR possible with showers becoming
more probable.

Saturday: MVFR to IFR with chance of showers. Occasional NE wind
gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Saturday night: Lowering chances of showers. MVFR to IFR possible.

Sunday: Chance of showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm afternoon
into early evening. MVFR to IFR possible at times. Otherwise VFR.

Monday: Chance of showers. MVFR to IFR possible at times. Otherwise
VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions are anticipated for all waters through the
first half of the weekend. Ocean seas generally hold at 2 to 3 ft
with a relaxed pressure gradient and a light onshore flow. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels from Saturday
night through next Tuesday with a weak pressure gradient in place.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk is low on Friday with a light easterly
flow and limited swell. There is a moderate rip current risk on
Saturday with increasing easterly flow and building seas 3 to 4
ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...JE/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE/DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...