Security-Widefield, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

135
FXUS65 KPUB 190456 CCA
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1056 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and mainly dry weather returns Thursday, continuing through
  Sunday.

- Hottest days will be Friday and Saturday, with near record
  high temperatures at many locations, while fire danger
  increases to critical levels over the mountains along the
  Continental Divide/Upper Arkansas Valley both days.

- Cooler and potentially wetter weather returns beginning
  Monday, continuing through much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Currently, nice mid-June day ongoing across srn Colorado, with
relatively light winds and temperatures around seasonal
averages. Just a few minor convective clouds over the mountains
at mid-afternoon, and expect these to dissipate quickly this
evening with clearing skies and cool overnight min temps. Upper
ridge builds Thursday, with heat returning to most locations as
mid level heights/temps rise. Plains will likely see some near
100f maxes reappear, especially from Pueblo eastward to Lamar,
while remainder of the area sees mainly 80s/90s. Models have
begun to hint at thunderstorms developing late Thu afternoon
along a weak surface trough from roughly Trinidad to Lamar, so
added some low pops for storms in this area for a few hours in
the late afternoon. Given high cloud bases and large t/td
spreads, expect more wind than rain with most activity, with a
low risk of some 50-60 mph gusts under the strongest storms.
Fire weather conditions look marginal Thursday (winds around 25
mph) so no highlights at this point. (More detailed fire weather
discussion follows at the end of this product).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

The upper ridge will push off to the east Friday-Saturday, with
breezy southwest flow setting in aloft. Downsloping and
enhanced heating will cause temperatures to soar again, with
areas across the eastern plains exceeding 100 degrees both days,
while even the valleys hit the upper-80s to low-90s.
Additionally, gusty winds are expected to mix down for the
surface, increasing chances for both fire weather and heat-
related hazards. Otherwise, the area should remain dry and
generally free of precipitation as we head into the weekend.

The incoming upper trough begins to dig down over the western CONUS
starting on Sunday. Southwest flow aloft will increase, and though
most of the area will remain dry some moisture will start to move in
as well. Currently looking at the chance for some isolated showers
and storms Sunday evening sometime, but it will depend on what kind
of moisture advection we get with southerly surface winds.
Temperatures finally begin to cool as we move into early next week,
back into seasonal levels over the plains, though it will still be
in the 80s at least. A cold front is expected to move in sometime on
Monday as a lobe of energy translates through the jet to our north.
Will need to see how this slight decrease in heat, along with
moisture returns, impacts critical fire conditions. This will also
coincide with an increased chance for thunderstorms over the plains,
and while the moisture will be helpful for fuels, fire starts from
lightning may become a more immediate concern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
... Issued at 1055 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours at COS, PUB and
ALS. Generally light diurnal wind regimes expected overnight, with
slightly more mixing leading to gusty southerly winds up to 25kts
at the taf sites tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Winds increase slightly across the higher terrain and interior
valleys on Thursday, though speeds should stay at or just below
critical fire weather thresholds and no fire weather highlight
has been issued. On Friday and Saturday, Pacific NW upper
trough deepens, with increasing sw winds over srn Colorado both
days. Given winds in the 700-500mb layer of 35-45 kts, expect
surface winds to easily reach 25-35 mph both days, with deep
mixing producing some 50 mph gusts over higher exposed terrain.
Air mass will be extremely dry, with single digit afternoon RH
at most locations, while max temps will be in the 90s/100s lower
elevations with mainly 80s interior valleys and all but the
higher mountain peaks. While weather conditions will support
widespread high fire danger, fuels away from the Continental
Divide are still not critical, so only highlights at this point
will be zones 220/223 along the Divide/upper Arkansas
Valley. Will have to watch the San Luis Valley, where prolonged
windy/hot weather may cure fine fuels enough to become critical,
especially by late weekend.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for COZ220-223.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for COZ220-223.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MW
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSEN