Northglenn, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

553
FXUS65 KBOU 070911
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
311 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures with elevated fire weather conditions
  for the plains today. Areas of smoke through at least Tuesday.

- Dry weather and much above normal temperatures continue through
  at least Friday. The odds of changing weather for this weekend
  are diminishing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2024

There is a batch of mid/upper level cloudiness over the central
CWA this morning. Normal drainage winds are in place over much of
the CWA. Temperatures are in the 40s over the plains, except they
are well into the 50s under the cloud cover. The mountains and
high valleys are mainly in the 30s currently.

There is a weak upper troughing over the northern CWA at this time.
This ushers in a weak front with northwesterly winds behind it
this afternoon. The upper ridge axis is well west of the CWA with
weak west-northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA the rest of the
today and tonight. The synoptic scale energy for the forecast area
will be neutral to weak downward today and tonight. It will stay
pretty dry with the precipitable water fields showing 0.20 to 0.45
inch today and tonight. So, continued dry with no pops. The HRRR
Vertically Integrated Smoke proggs show the smoke to get into the
CWA later this afternoon and into the Denver Metro Area after 00z
with the northwesterly winds behind the front later today. Will
adjust the PotSmoke grids accordingly.

For temperatures, today`s highs look to be 1.0-2.0 C warmer than
yesterday`s, with highs in the lower 80s over the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2024

A flat upper level ridge will remain in control of our weather
through the rest of the week. There is just a bit of mid level
moisture building under the ridge for Tuesday and Wednesday, but
nothing more than a few light showers or sprinkles possible in the
high country. Temperatures will average at least 10-15 degrees
above normal each day, with highs generally in the lower to mid
80s over the plains, upper 60s to mid 70s foothills and high
mountain valleys, and 50s to lower 60s mountains.

The one change (not surprisingly) is the fading of next weekend`s
weather system. Even the undercutting trough is now much weaker
and slower - a rather significant change even in the ensembles over
just the last 24 hours. As a result, we will likely see the
unseasonably warm and dry conditions now persist through at least
Saturday, while Sunday`s cooler temperatures and chance of showers
seems to be fading away rather quickly.

Finally, depending on the intensity of fires to our west, we could
be looking at a couple more intrusions of smoke. At least it
appears the smoke today and tonight will be eroding back to the
east across the plains for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1208 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2024

There was a brief period of brisk south-southeasterlies at DIA
late Sunday evening, however, now more normal drainage wind
patterns are developing at decreasing speeds. Models show weak and
variable winds at DIA this morning with light northernly flow
this afternoon. It is back to drainage by 05Z Monday night. The
vertical integrated smoke proggs are showing fairly decent smoke
to get over DIA this afternoon and tonight. There could be some
visibility restrictions because of it. Will leave the VSBYs at
6SM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2024

Upper ridging continue for the forecast area with a dry airmass
in place. Minimum humidities drop down into the lower and mid
teens this afternoon for a few hours over most areas. However,
wind speeds are not expected to very strong, although breezy
condition can be expected over the eastern half of the plains so
the fire danger will be elevated there.

Much above normal temperatures and very low humidity readings
will prevail through at least Saturday. Winds will fortunately be
light for most of the period, although a bump in somewhat higher
wind speeds and thus fire danger is possible by Friday or
Saturday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM......RJK
LONG TERM.......Barjenbruch
AVIATION........RJK
FIRE WEATHER....Barjenbruch/RJK