Four Square Mile, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

549
FXUS65 KBOU 230347
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
947 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler with more moisture and scattered to likely showers and
  thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.

- Drier Thursday through Sunday with warming temperatures and only
  isolated late day showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

A weak shortwave is encountering a little area of elevated CAPE of
600-1200 J/kg and is producing storms across northeastern
Colorado. We expect these to continue eastward for a few hours
before diminishing. It`s mostly nonsevere, though we`ve seen a few
strong pulses that likely produces 1 inch diameter hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

The northerly surge came through about half the plains earlier
this morning is now moving back northward being pushed by
southwesterlies. There is also another boundary pushing westward
east of the Metro Area, with a Denver cyclone circulation over
and just east of DIA.  Not a cloud in the skies over the plains,
yet plenty to tend to.

Models keep pretty strong southwesterly flow aloft over the CWA
tonight through Wednesday. In the lower levels, models bring that
long advertised cold front into across the across the foothills and
plains by 06Z tonight.  Then the low level winds have an eastern
component to them through Tuesday.  As far as synoptic energy is
concerned, there is weak upward QG vertical velocity progged for the
CWA now through Wednesday evening.

Tonight`s front will keep the 90 degree temperatures readings at bay,
at least through Wednesday, perhaps Thursday too.  Highs will be in
the 70s for the plains Monday, and lower 80s Tuesday, then 70s again
Wednesday.

Moisture increases Monday with precipitable water values progged in
the 0.50 to 1.30 inch range for the foothills and plains by
afternoon. This continues into Tuesday evening, then the better
moisture gets into the mountains too.  Models show decent
instability on the CAPE fields during the late day periods Monday
through Wednesday.  Lapse rates aren`t bad on the cross sections
either. The QPF fields show measurable rainfall for the eastern
two-thirds of the CWA during the late day periods through Wednesday
as well. The 30%-70% pops look good for the high mountains,
foothills and plains all three days.

For the later four days, Thursday through Sunday, a warmer drier
period of weather is expected, with flat upper ridging over the
CWA and pretty light flow aloft.  The best chances for showers
and thunderstorms will be over the high mountains with 10-20%
chances late in the day. The plains can expected 0-10% chances for
storms all four days. High temperatures, over the plains will be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s all four days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 554 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

The boundary over DIA will likely linger a little after 01Z, with
VRB winds gusting up to 30 kts. After that, a cold front will
push through, bringing northerly winds gusting up to 20 kts
through 07Z. MVFR conditions are expected from 07Z through 18Z due
to low ceilings. However, there is a chance (~30%) that low
clouds could arrive slightly earlier. Thunderstorms are possible
in the late afternoon, so have introduced a PROB30 for -TSRA by
23Z with VRB outflows up to 30 kts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gimmestad
DISCUSSION....rjk
AVIATION...Ideker