Fountain, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

293
FXUS65 KPUB 021207
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
607 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow continues across the central mountains early this
  morning, as well as some shower activity for portions of the
  eastern plains.

- High fire danger returns to Fremont County and the southern
  I-25 corridor this morning through the afternoon.

- Snow picks up in intensity once again this evening along the
  Continental Divide.

- Precipitation returns Thursday for much of the area, with
  messy mixed modes of precipitation possible.

- Potential exist for higher impact weather Friday night into
  Saturday, with heavy and impactful precipitation possible.

- Conditions dry out and start to warmup Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 605 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

While light snow continues along the northern portions of the
central mountains, snow has ended across the rest of the higher
terrain. Any remaining snow is expected to lessen through the
rest of the morning, and given this, the Winter Weather
Advisories that were place have been allowed to expire.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Currently...Broad longwave upper trough of low pressure resides over
the western half of the country, with one lobe of energy pushing
across eastern CO this morning. Wraparound flow and a weak cold
front last night helped kick off some light rain and snow showers
across the eastern plains, which are lingering across some areas
early this morning. Report overnight of healthy snowfall in
Leadville supports the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory for the
central mts, and will maintain until the planned expiration time of
6 AM. As of 2 AM, temps have cooled into the teens and 20s for the
high valleys, and 30s to around 40F for the plains.

Today...As one low ejects to the northeast today, another lobe of
energy is progged to drop south across NV and UT and gather strength
today. Lingering showers across the plains, and snow showers across
the central mts, are expected to diminish quickly this morning,
allowing for a break in precipitation for the forecast area. The
main concern through the day will be a very dry air mass combined
with increasing winds and gusts through the normal gap-flow areas. A
Red Flag Warning was issued yesterday for Fremont County, as well as
the southern I-25 Corridor from Pueblo County and south, and those
areas still look reasonable. There may be spotty critical fire
weather conditions edging up into southern El Paso County, and into
Crowley and Otero counties as well, but it does not look like those
conditions will cover enough area, or last long enough, to warrant
an expansion of the highlight. Plan on highs today in the 40s for
the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains.

Tonight...The next piece of the upper low strengthens over the
Desert Sw and starts to draw moisture back up into the western half
of CO starting this afternoon, then more so through the evening.
Light snow showers are expected over the central mts this afternoon,
then the focus shifts more to the eastern San Juans and the La
Garitas through the night with precip then spreading across the high
valleys and eastern mts by midnight. By midnight, sfc winds and flow
up to 700 mb swings around to an E to NE direction, aiding in
blossoming precip chances along the e mts and I-25 Corridor
overnight. Snowfall amounts through tonight are expected to be in
the 2 to 3 inch range for the peaks of the Continental Divide, and
around an inch for the peaks of the Sangres. As for overnight low
temps, plan on teens and 20s once again for the high valleys, and
20s to around 30F for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Thursday: Thursday brings one of a few busy and messy weather days
to south central and southeastern Colorado during the long term
period. Synoptically a shortwave embedded within the broader flow of
messy trough will eject over the region throughout the day. This
feature will bring increased forcing, along with pull a plume of
Pacific moisture northward with it. With the increase in forcing and
moisture, snow showers are expected to blossom across the higher
terrain early, and persist through much of the day. Given the
broader support over the area, snow showers are also anticipated to
push off of the higher terrain and spread across the valleys
throughout the day. As for the plains, a messier scenario is
anticipated. As the shortwave pushes to the north over the area, a
lee cyclone will develop across the southeast plains of Colorado.
This will allow for a cold front to develop and sit in a general
area of Cheyenne and Kiowa Counties and westward into mid to
southern El Paso County. With the synoptic forcing/support and
enhanced surface forcing along the front, the front will become an
area for shower development, with scattered to numerous showers
north of this front. Along with that, northerly winds developing
behind this front will enhance surface forcing along the Palmer
Divide, where shower coverage will be even greater. With colder air
filling in behind this front, snow is anticipated early in the day,
though will transition to a rain/snow mix for most by the afternoon
as temperatures warm, with sloppy, wet snow becoming restricted to
the higher elevations of the Palmer Divide. As for south of this
front, drier conditions are anticipated, though with the broader
forcing in place, an isolated shower is possible. Any showers that
develop south of the front are expected to remain all rain as warmer
temperatures prevail. With that all said, as the shortwave weakens
and becomes absorbed into the broader flow late in the day, any
showers present are expected to lessen in coverage and intensity
during the overnight hours. Beyond all of that, mostly cloudy skies
are anticipated given this unsettled pattern, with breezy winds
across the area, especially across the plains where the lee cyclone
will develop. Looking at temperatures, much of the region will
remain below seasonal values given the stormy pattern in place.

Friday - Saturday: For the end of the week and start of the weekend,
the messy and busy weather continues for south central and
southeastern Colorado. The broad trough that brought the Thursday
shortwave will push one additional and more organized shortwave just
to the south of the region, keeping forcing heightened across the
area. Along with that, despite the messy pattern, moisture will
remain in place, and even increase during this period as the broader
troughing advects Pacific and Gulf moisture into the area. Given all
of that, precipitation chances will remain elevated for much of the
region for these couple of days, especially Friday night and into
Saturday morning, with the highest chances remaining along the
mountains where forcing will be greatest. As alluded to though,
Friday night and into Saturday morning is when precipitation
coverage is expected to be greatest, especially for the eastern
mountains and down into the Raton Mesa area where persistent and
moist upslope flow is expected, and the area most likely to
experience heavy and impactful precipitation. With that all said, as
is typical with Spring system, precipitation type will be messy for
some. The mountains and valleys will remain rather straight forward
with all snow. As for the plains, this is where things get messy.
Any showers early Friday will start off as snow or a rain/snow mix.
As temperatures warm during Friday and snow levels start rising to
around 6,000-6,200ft, precipitation will start to transition to all
rain, except for the higher elevations of the Palmer Divide and
Raton Mesa, where wet and sloppy snow will continue. Then heading
into Friday night and Saturday morning, as temperature begin to
cool, snow will start to become the dominant precipitation type as
snow levels finally fall to around 2,500ft by Saturday morning. With
that all said, precipitation will start to lessen in coverage and
intensity throughout the day Saturday as the broader troughing and
embedded shortwaves finally push to the east and southeast of the
region. Outside of all of that, cloudy conditions are anticipated
both day, with light winds Friday, and breezy winds Saturday behind
an additional cold front surge. As for temperatures, the cool down
continues as the unsettled pattern remains in place, with the
coldest temperatures Saturday given the additional cold front
passage.

Sunday - Tuesday: Finally during the end of the weekend and early
part of next week, quieter weather returns for south central and
southeastern Colorado. Behind the messy pattern,
ridging/northwesterly flow will develop over the area. Given the
lack of major forcing with this pattern, dry conditions are expected
for much of the area. The exception to this may be along the
mountains where orographic forcing may develop an isolated snow.
Otherwise, relatively light winds and partly cloudy skies of mid to
high level clouds is expected for much of the region. Temperatures
during this period will start to warm, with near to above seasonal
values returning by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR conditions anticipated for much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUb and
KALS.

KCOS: Improving conditions through the morning. W-NW winds
increasing and getting gusty to near 25 kts from 20z-00z. Wind shift
to the N-NE between 02z-05z with lowering clouds, and PROB30 after
10z with light snow and IFR cloud deck.

KPUB: Improving conditions through the morning. W-NW winds
increasing and getting gusty to near 25 kts from 16z-20z. Wind shift
to the N-NE between 01z-03z with lowering clouds.

KALS: W winds increasing and getting gusty to near 25 kts from 18z-
00z. Wind shift to the E-SE around 07z with lowering clouds, and
PROB30 after 09z with light snow and IFR cloud deck.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-
228>230.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOORE