Fountain, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

203
FXUS65 KPUB 122007
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
207 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms with gusty winds expected to affect most of the
plains later this afternoon and early evening.

- Less storms tomorrow (mtns drying out) but one or two severe
  storms possible far eastern plains.

- A drying trend with above normal temperatures continuing
  through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Currently...

Mostly clear skies prevailed over the mtns and larger valleys while
thunderstorms were noted over the spine of the mtns. One or two of
the storms were trying to push out onto the plains in the Pikes Peak
region. Temps early this afternoon across the plains were well into
the 80s across the plains with a few 70s still over the Palmer
divide, Larger valleys were in the 70s with 50s and 60s mtns.

Rest of this afternoon into this evening...

Storms are expected to become a bit more organized as they push out
onto the mtns/plains interface and expect a broken line of convection
and associated organized outflow winds to push eastward on the
plains. However, as the storms move across the far eastern plains,
they are expected to weaken during the early to mid evening hours
and I do not anticipate any significant activity reaching the KS
border later tonight. Some of these storms will produce some pretty
strong sfc winds and sounding over the plains are showing well
defined inverted V representations, and this will allow for quite a
bit of DCAPE to be realized allowing for the gusty winds.

For tonight, expect low temps over the plains to be in the 50s to
around 60 and in the L/M40s valleys. Mtns will be in the 30s and 40s.

Tomorrow...

A few subtle changes will occur tomorrow weather-wise. First,
guidance is showing drier air in the lower part of the atmosphere
advecting in across the higher terrain, and I expect we will see
much less convection over the mtns tomorrow, especially the interior
mtns. Additionally, it will be a tad warmer across all of the region
tomorrow, especially the mtns, as they will see less cloud cover.
Over the plains, we will also see less storm coverage, but the
storms may be a bit stronger as there will be higher dewpts over the
region and the moisture, especially over the far eastern plains,
will be a bit deeper. Likewise, there may be one or two severe
storms over the far eastern plains tomorrow.

As mentioned, it is going to start getting hot across the region and
mid 80s will be possible in the larger valleys with mid 90s over the
lower Ark rvr valley over the plains and mid 80s to around 90s on
the divides (Palmer and Raton). These values are about 5 to 8F above
normal for this time of the year.

For tomorrow evening, a few storms may linger into the late evening
hours and they could be strong to severe, albeit isolated. Storms
should end prior to midnight. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Saturday- Monday...Upper level ridging is expected to build
back across the Rockies through the weekend, with operational
and ensemble model data supporting much drier air moving across
the region within generally weak southwest flow aloft. This will
lead to decreasing chances of diurnal showers and storms into
early next week, with any storms that can develop over and near
the higher terrain being higher based. The one exception will be
over the far southeast plains, where lee/thermal trough will
keep low level moisture in place. This will lead to the
potential for a few strong to severe storms, if mid level
capping weakens enough for the instability can be tapped. High
temperatures into early next week to remain above seasonal norms
in the upper 80s to upper 90s across the Plains, and in the 60s
to low 80s across the higher terrain. Lows look to be in the
50s to lower 60s across the plains and mainly in the 30s and 40s
across the higher terrain.

Tuesday-Thursday...Latest models data continues to differ on the
amplitude and timing of an upper trough trying to break down the
ridge through the middle of next week, leading to uncertainty in
temperatures and precipitation chances. NBM data does support a slow
decrease in temperatures and a slight uptick in convection, mainly
across the eastern mountains and plains, through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A passing disturbance will bring scattered showers and storms to the
area this afternoon and evening, with the potential for impacts at
all three TAF sites KALS, KCOS, and KPUB.

KALS: Scattered showers and storms will form across the nearby
mountains this afternoon, drifting into the valley by 22Z or so.
While precipitation at the terminal is low-medium confidence, due to
patchy coverage, can expect a few hours of gusty outflow winds,
mainly from the west-northwest, to 25 knots or so. Area dries out
again later this evening, with winds below 10 knots and slowly
clearing skies.

KCOS: Several rounds of showers and storms possible this afternoon
and evening. Showers are already popping up nearby, and will persist
in the area with some thunder, off and on through about 00Z. This
evening, in the 01-03Z timeframe, some models show another line of
storms briefly moving through, so while the data looks inconsistent,
have included a PROB30 for this possibility. Outflow winds in storm
vicinity today could produce gusts of 25 knots or so, and if a storm
moves directly over the terminal, 35 knots or more will be briefly
possible. The area dries out overnight with the return of lighter
winds.

KPUB: Showers and storms are expected in the area today, mainly over
and near the higher terrain. Outflow winds from storms will come in
from the west, around 00Z or so, with gusts of 25 knots possible.
There is a lower, but non-zero chance for a few showers and storms
to pass over the terminal later this evening, have included as a
PROB30 for now due to the isolated-scattered coverage of expected
storms. The area will dry out again overnight, with lighter west-
northwest winds and clearing skies by Friday morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR/HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH/MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO/MW