Aurora, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

992
FXUS65 KBOU 102124
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
224 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather through Monday.

- Windy Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

- Chance of mountain snow showers Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
Issued at 106 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

Not a whole lot to talk about in the near term. With weak/flat
ridging overhead through the next 24 hours or so, we should see a
continued quiet pattern to start the week.

Some patchy fog is possible tonight, mainly over Middle Park and
the river valleys of Weld county. Lows will range from the low 30s
across most of the metro to the 10s/20s. The coldest spots will
likely be where the snow pack is currently deepest.

Tomorrow should be another quiet day. The only uncertainty is how
much influence the snowpack will have on temperatures again.
There`s been quite a bit of variability across that area today, so
the forecast tomorrow is much more uncertain than usual. Either
way, it should be a fairly pleasant afternoon with sunny skies and
near/slightly below normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 106 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

Southwesterly flow aloft is expected to develop overnight Monday
ahead of the next approaching trough. Main concerns for Monday night
into Tuesday morning would be fog development in our low laying
areas. With light winds expected for portions of Weld and Morgan
Counties where soundings show saturated lower levels, we anticipate
fog formation that could lower visibilities for the Tuesday morning
commute. This could move as far west as eastern Larimer and NE
Boulder Counties. With stronger southerly winds expected for the
northeast corner of the state along the South Platte River Valley,
higher levels of mixing may do the trick to keep fog formation at
bay, but can`t rule out some areas of patchy fog developing in these
locations, mainly north of I-76 in areas where wind is lighter.

Throughout the day Tuesday, increasing mid and upper level moisture
is expected as the trough passes through the Great Basin. Mountain
snow showers are expected to develop by the afternoon with only a
few inches expected, as advertised by both operational and ensembles
alike. Some differences remain between the operational models, but
the GFS continues to move the base of the trough towards a more
southern route, yet still remains slightly north of the ECMWF and
Canadian solutions. Either way, this is expected to be a quick
moving system with little impacts for the forecast area. A cold
front is expected to drape south into Colorado Tuesday night into
Wednesday, dropping temperatures by a few degrees for Wednesday.
Gusty N/NW winds are expected behind the frontal passage on
Wednesday across the eastern plains. At the same time, Cross
sections indicate a mountain wave develop as northwesterly flow
moves in behind the exiting trough. This could bring some gusty
westerly winds to our foothills and highest elevations of our
eastern slopes for at least the morning hours. Dry conditions are
expected to develop as 500 mb ridging sets in behind the trough as
well.

Zonal flow is expected through Thursday, which will also be the
warmest day of the week, before transitioning to southwesterly
ahead of what looks to be another trough heading our way for the
weekend. As of now, there are too many uncertainties to determine
exactly what will happen, but it is leaning towards at least
another chance for mountain show, and another cool down for the
forecast area by the weekend as another Pacific trough slides east
into the Intermountain West.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal through Thursday when
they warm up to above normal once again. This will be the pattern
through around Saturday when our next potential cool down is
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1003 AM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

VFR through the period. Winds should maintain a fairly steady
direction out of the south for DEN/APA through tomorrow. A little
more variation to the winds at BJC but speeds will be light.

There is still an outside shot (<10%) of fog moving in this
evening or overnight for DEN, but the drainage flow should
generally keep any fog development well north of the field.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...Bonner
AVIATION...Hiris