Willow Ranch, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

852
FXUS66 KMFR 082320
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
420 PM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.


&&

.AVIATION...09/00Z TAFs...Along the coast, marine stratus is
expected to spread onshore along the coast this evening, bringing
IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities through Monday morning.
Conditions will improve to VFR around 18-20z. Inland, VFR is
expected through the TAF period. However, there is a potential for
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening today and  moreso, on
Monday.  Isolated thunderstorms are expected over northern
California (Siskiyou county with a 15% chance for storms in Modoc
county) into this evening, which may result in gusty outflow winds.
On Monday, thunderstorms are possible across northern California and
into southwest Oregon, including Yreka, Mount Alturas, Klamath
Falls and Lakeview, with gusty outflows and locally heavy
downpours possible. There is a low chance (10%) for
thunderstorms Monday afternoon at Medford.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 203 PM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows marine stratus along the coast,
except from about Gold Beach south where the marine stratus is
offshore. Over the interior, were starting to see cumulus
development over the mountains in southern Siskiyou County, along
the Warners and higher terrain in portions of Lake County.

Temperatures for the interior are between 3-6 degrees higher
compared to this time yesterday as of this writing and we are likely
to have hot afternoon temperatures for the. Triple digit values are
likely for the interior westside valleys today and Monday with warm
overnight lows. The Heat Advisory remains in effect. Please see
NPWMFR for more details.

The mid level water vapor image shows the upper ridge over our area
with the upper low off the California coast just south of the Bay
Area. In between there`s basically a squeeze play that is being put
in place with respect the the mid level flow and moisture. What this
will do is keep the best chance for thunderstorms south of our
forecast area later this afternoon and evening. The latest right res
HRRR model (which updates hourly) shows a few returns along the
Siskiyou/Trinity County line late this afternoon and early evening.
Thus, the chance for isolated storms are lower, but still exist. The
expectation is whatever isolated storms we have should be confined
to portions of Siskiyou County. Models sounding show a dry sub
layer, therefore any rain that comes the cloud base of the storms
will likely evaporate before reaching the ground.

Any storms should fizzle out later this evening with dry weather
tonight into Monday morning.

It will be slightly more unstable Monday along with increasing mid
level moisture that could set the table for isolated thunderstorms
Monday afternoon into Monday evening. The rigger is weak, but given
the amount of instability, it won`t take much of a trigger to get
storms to develop. The best chance for storms are expected to be in
northern California. Also portions of Siskiyou County could get some
precipitation due to higher water content in the column of the
atmosphere. Although some of the high res also shows the potential
for a few locations east of the Cascades.

Tuesday is shaping up to be the more active day of the
three(including today). A stronger upper trough will approach from
the west and there`s good agreement the upper trough axis will still
be just offshore late Tuesday afternoon. This will put the area in a
favorable position for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and
east of the Cascades and northern Cal, with the instability
parameters greatest in Western Siskiyou County. Given the position
of the upper trough axis and stronger trigger ahead of it could
bring a heighten threat for isolated strong storms. Keep in mind,
the details could change, so stay tuned for the latest updates.

Storms could linger into the overnight hours Tuesday, with the upper
trough axis to the west, but they are likely to be isolated and
confined to portions of Lake and Klamath County.

The upper trough axis is expected to be east of the Cascades
Wednesday morning with a moderate to strong trigger and marginal
instability, therefore isolated storms could linger into at least
the mid morning hours Wednesday, then moving east of the forecast
area as the upper trough axis shifts east.

Other than the slight chance for storms for the areas mentioned
above Wednesday morning, we`ll be heading into a pattern of upper
troughing that will persist into Fathers Day weekend. The net result
will be cooler afternoon temperatures for the interior with values
near normal the latter part of the week into next weekend. Odds are
it will be dry during this time, However, precipitation chances will
be be zero as a small number of individual ensemble members show
some precipitation -Petrucelli


MARINE...Updated 200 PM Sunday, June 8, 2025...Steep seas build
this evening as fresh northwest swell moves into area waters.
Northerly winds in our area look to increase on Tuesday. While
isolated areas of very steep seas are possible within 20 nm of shore
between Cape Blanco and Gold Beach on Tuesday afternoon and evening,
a Hazardous Seas Warning does not look necessary right now. Steep
seas are forecast to continue for all area waters through at least
Tuesday night and possibly into the weekend. -TAD

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM Sunday June 8, 2025...Dry and
mostly hot weather for the interior will continue through Monday.
Relative humidities will be low in the afternoon, with the lowest
values east of the Cascades and the interior westside valleys. With
lighter winds aloft and a more relaxed pressure gradient, winds are
not expected to be a significant concern. However, we`ll still have
the typical afternoon and early evening valley winds for the
interior westside valleys and portions of the eastside. The
exception will be near thunderstorms in the afternoon and early
evening hours into Tuesday where we could be dealing with gusty and
erratic winds.

The main concern ahead will be the potential for thunderstorms in
the afternoon and early evening hours into Tuesday, with Tuesday
possibly being the highest concern for isolated to scattered storms.
Details on this to follow below.

The mid level water vapor image shows the upper ridge over our area
with the upper low off the California coast just south of the Bay
Area. In between there`s basically a squeeze play (convergence) that
is being put in place with respect the the mid level flow and
moisture. What this will do is keep the best chance for
thunderstorms south of our forecast area later this afternoon and
evening. The latest right res HRRR model (which updates hourly)
shows a few returns along the Siskiyou/Trinity County line late this
afternoon and early evening. Thus, the chance for isolated storms
are lower, but still exist. The expectation is whatever isolated
storms we have should be confined to portions of Siskiyou County.
Models sounding show a dry sub layer, therefore any rain that comes
the cloud base of the storms will likely evaporate before reaching
the ground.

Storms will linger into this evening for the above mentioned areas,
then storms should diminish and towards or shortly after sunset.

Monday morning will start out dry, then the threat for storms return
again for the afternoon and early evening hours. Guidance suggest
the best chance for storms will be centered in northern cal,
especially western Siskiyou County and southern Cascades (south of
Crater Lake). However, isolated storms cannot be ruled out for
portions of the eastside. The trigger is on the weak side Monday,
but guidance shows rather unstable conditions in portions of Western
Siskiyou county. This is being supported by the HREF which shows a
sliver of 40% in this area which for our forecast area is a pretty
significant number. Additionally, PWATS values of greater than an
inch are showing up in central and western Siskiyou County which
could result in a higher chance for storms to produce wetting rains.

Because the trigger is rather weak, and instability diminishes, were
not expected storms to linger much after 8-9 pm pst Monday, with dry
conditions expected.

Tuesday, there is a higher concern for isolated to scattered
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. A stronger upper trough
will approach from the west, but the trend is for a slower arrival
of the upper trough axis. Even so, this will put the area in a more
favorable position for some storms be strong since the trigger is
expected to be stronger along with greater instability. So far,
guidance is in pretty good agreement suggesting storms will cover a
larger potion of the area and the shear number of storms will be
higher.

Keep in mind, some of the details could change. Current fuel
conditions over the least few days and upcoming days could end up
being more receptive to new starts if we have a significant mount of
lightning. Please use extra care when participating in activities
that may create sparks or embers. These can ignite fires that can
quickly grow out of control, especially around abundant dry or
unmaintained fuels

With the slower arrival of the upper trough axis, we could see
isolated storms linger Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then
once the upper trough axis shift east later Wednesday morning, then
threat for storms will shift east of the area.

Wednesday into Fathers Day weekend, there will be a cooling trend
with upper troughing setting up resulting in temperatures near or
slightly below seasonal norms. The odds are it will remain dry, but
there is some hints at isolated precipitation as we get towards next
weekend. Stay tuned. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for ORZ023-024-026.

CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$

CC/CC/CC