Westend, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

056
FXUS65 KVEF 290455
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
955 PM PDT Wed May 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures warm to dangerous levels on Friday and
Saturday as highs reach 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Late in the
weekend and early next week, moisture from tropical remnants is
expected to drift into the Desert Southwest, bringing precipitation
chances and notably cooler temperatures.
&&


.UPDATE...A few clouds this evening will make for a colorful sunset
tonight as wind speeds wane across the forecast area. Afternoon high
temperatures today topped out between 4 and 6 degrees above seasonal
averages and will continue to climb through the remainder of the
work week. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for valley locations
of southern Nevada, southeastern California, and the Lake Mead
National Recreation Area. No changes have been made to the forecast
this evening, as it remains in good shape.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...506 PM PDT Wed May 28 2025/


.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday.

Quiet and dry conditions persist into the weekend, leaving the only
real weather story to the heat. Temperatures this afternoon are
forecast to be a few degrees above-normal, with highs in the 90s and
low 100s across the Mojave Desert. Highs in the southern Great Basin
range from the mid 80s to low 90s. However, as ridging builds across
the western US in the coming days, temperatures will warm to around
10 degrees above-normal for late May. The heat peaks on Friday and
Saturday, with forecast highs in the Mojave Desert ranging from 97-
107. Combined with warm overnight lows, HeatRisk will jump to
"Major" levels over most of this area. Extreme Heat Warnings go into
effect for places like Las Vegas, Laughlin, Pahrump, Death Valley,
and Barstow during this time.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday.

As we get into the 2nd half of the weekend and early next week,
attention shifts to the Eastern Tropical Pacific and a cutoff low
meandering just west of the Baja Peninsula. A tropical system (soon
to be named Alvin) is forecast to drift northward over the coming
days and pretty much dissipate as it enters the Gulf of California.
However, the associated moisture will continue to be pulled north
through the Gulf thanks to the cutoff low`s circulation. Guidance
shows the anomalous moisture creeping into our southern zones on
Saturday, but the bulk of the moisture arrives Sunday and Sunday
night. Ensemble mean PWAT values across most of the area are 150-
250% of normal. At the same time, a trough coming out of the PacNW
is expected to begin merge with the cutoff low, dragging it
northeast into the lower Colorado River Valley and Arizona. Models
have swayed back and forth with the track of the moisture/low, so
there remains some uncertainty (especially considering that it is a
cutoff low). However, confidence is increasing in precipitation
potential on Sunday and Sunday night for areas southeast of I-15.
Shifts in the track could push the better precipitation chances
solely into Arizona or draw them west to the I-15 corridor.
Currently, chances in excess of 25% are confined to the lower
Colorado River Valley and northwestern Arizona. Interaction with the
larger trough could spark lighter precipitation across the southern
Great Basin as well where PoPs are over 25% Sunday night and Monday.
Farther south, the trough interaction will act to induce gusty
southwest winds which will scour the moisture out and bring
precipitation chances to an end on Monday. Across the Mojave Desert,
these winds may be on the more impactful side with probabilities of
40+ mph gusts around 50-75%. Southwest breezes linger on Tuesday,
though should be a little weaker. Temperature-wise, expecting near
or below normal values during this time.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
southwest winds are expected through the remainder of the overnight
period.  A return to a more typical wind pattern is expected
tomorrow, with northeast winds developing by mid-morning and then
turning southeast in the afternoon.  Speeds should generally remain
less than 8 knots with less than a 20 percent chance of seeing gusts
to 15 knots during the afternoon and early evening.  VFR conditions
will prevail with bases remaining AOA 20kft AGL through the TAF
period.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to those described above for
Harry Reid.  Elsewhere, sustained winds will generally be less than
15 knots and follow typical diurnal directional trends.  A few gusts
to 20 knots will be possible during the afternoon and early evening
in the Owens and Colorado River valleys, and the typical westerly
surge at KDAG is expected after 03Z. VFR conditions will prevail
with SCT to BKN skies and bases remaining AOA 20kft AGL through the
TAF period.

&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Planz

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